And that, ladies and gentlemen, is what we call vindication.
Last week, things looked bad. I had managed to turn a profit of more than £2,000 (Dh11,584), carefully (or, more accurately, luckily) crafted over 25 weeks, into a near-loss.
In a sense, I was in a trap, tied to the roller-coaster ride of a single stock - the very opposite of the bet-hedging diversification urged by every idiot's guide to day-, or swing-trading.
But, as I explained last week, I wasn't simply holding on to my shares in BG, the former British Gas, out of stubborn pride; I was attempting to apply some science to my blind faith and guesswork in the shape of Fibonacci retracement patterns.
This mysterious maths-based analysis of the impact of human behaviour on the price of shares - the way in which herd instinct, at predictable moments in the price cycle of any stock, will coagulate into a buying and selling pattern for no discernible, exterior reason, and effect a price movement - appeared to indicate that BG's price was about to change direction. And, lo, it has come to pass.
And not before time. Last week, I - or, rather, Fibonacci - predicted that, despite the apparent downward spiral in value, BG would soon pick up. I didn't really believe it, to be honest, but now my faith in 13th-century Italian mathematicians has been restored.
I'm sorry to gloat, but here I'm going to repeat what I wrote last week: "If human behaviour is all it's cracked up to be, then we should next expect a sell-off - which will in turn provoke a buying spree, raising the price once again."
And what have we seen? That's right, ladies and gentlemen, exactly that, before your very eyes.
Overall, in a series of purchases spread over a few days, I had paid an average of 1,242.7 pence for my BG shares, the price of which last week had dropped to a mere 1,168.5p. Applying Fibonacci's numbers theory - applicable to everything from rabbit-breeding patterns to stock-market share movements - I boldly predicted they would soon bounce back to about 1,200p.
I was wrong, but in a very, very good way. In fact, they bounced back to 1,267p.
Now, of course, was the time to sell, to make hay while the sun was shining - but to do so intelligently. A new trading day loomed. There would be nothing worse than to miss the moment and see the price drop rapidly back down again at the opening of business, so to protect against this, I put a stop-loss in place, to sell the lot if the price dropped to 1,260p.
Then I had a closer look at the chart for the past three months - and I've reproduced it below so you can see what's been going on. The red bars show selling activity; the green, buying. Selling provokes a drop in price, buying, the opposite.
Take a look at the buying activity that has stimulated the current price restoration. Now look back along the graph; it's the most sustained buying spree in the past three months. That can mean one of two things; either the buying is nearly over, and we can expect a brief period of consolidation followed by a fall, or this is the start of a major upwards price adjustment.
I decided to put in place stop-loss and limit positions that would protect me against losing out in either eventuality. Of course, if the price really rocketed upwards, I was ready to adjust my limits accordingly.
But what should my upper limit be? If we really are seeing a major price recovery, how high could it go?
In the past year, this share hit its peak to date of 1,296p at the beginning of November. Step back further and look at a chart for the past two years, however, and it becomes apparent that this most recent peak was the third in a series that began in May 2009. Since then, the price has fallen away, then risen higher, fallen away again, and then risen higher still.
Drawing a line through each of these successively higher peaks leads to the tempting inference that, if we really have now embarked on the final ascent to a fourth peak, we will shortly be requiring oxygen, as the price could be on its way to 1,400p or more.
That price, however, seemed far too high, so I opted for a conservative upper sell limit of 1,300p.
In the event, I acted just in time, and it worked beautifully. The price flicked upwards and briefly hit 1,300p a share within a few minutes of the market opening. The software dutifully cashed in my chips, leaving me with £16,720.36 in the bank, representing a profit on my original £15,000 fantasy investment of £1,720.36. Not a bad recovery from last week's flat line.
If this were for real, it would have been a pulse-quickening couple of weeks - but I doubt my sense of self-satisfied smugness would be any more pronounced than it is now.
jgornall@thenational.ae
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Five expert hiking tips
Always check the weather forecast before setting off
Make sure you have plenty of water
Set off early to avoid sudden weather changes in the afternoon
Wear appropriate clothing and footwear
Take your litter home with you
Game Changer
Director: Shankar
Stars: Ram Charan, Kiara Advani, Anjali, S J Suryah, Jayaram
Rating: 2/5
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Recipe
Garlicky shrimp in olive oil
Gambas Al Ajillo
Preparation time: 5 to 10 minutes
Cooking time: 5 minutes
Serves 4
Ingredients
180ml extra virgin olive oil; 4 to 5 large cloves of garlic, minced or pureed (or 3 to 4 garlic scapes, roughly chopped); 1 or 2 small hot red chillies, dried (or ¼ teaspoon dried red chilli flakes); 400g raw prawns, deveined, heads removed and tails left intact; a generous splash of sweet chilli vinegar; sea salt flakes for seasoning; a small handful of fresh flat-leaf parsley, roughly chopped
Method
▶ Heat the oil in a terracotta dish or frying pan. Once the oil is sizzling hot, add the garlic and chilli, stirring continuously for about 10 seconds until golden and aromatic.
▶ Add a splash of sweet chilli vinegar and as it vigorously simmers, releasing perfumed aromas, add the prawns and cook, stirring a few times.
▶ Once the prawns turn pink, after 1 or 2 minutes of cooking, remove from the heat and season with sea salt flakes.
▶ Once the prawns are cool enough to eat, scatter with parsley and serve with small forks or toothpicks as the perfect sharing starter. Finish off with crusty bread to soak up all that flavour-infused olive oil.
Q&A with Dash Berlin
Welcome back. What was it like to return to RAK and to play for fans out here again?
It’s an amazing feeling to be back in the passionate UAE again. Seeing the fans having a great time that is what it’s all about.
You're currently touring the globe as part of your Legends of the Feels Tour. How important is it to you to include the Middle East in the schedule?
The tour is doing really well and is extensive and intensive at the same time travelling all over the globe. My Middle Eastern fans are very dear to me, it’s good to be back.
You mix tracks that people know and love, but you also have a visually impressive set too (graphics etc). Is that the secret recipe to Dash Berlin's live gigs?
People enjoying the combination of the music and visuals are the key factor in the success of the Legends Of The Feel tour 2018.
Have you had some time to explore Ras al Khaimah too? If so, what have you been up to?
Coming fresh out of Las Vegas where I continue my 7th annual year DJ residency at Marquee, I decided it was a perfect moment to catch some sun rays and enjoy the warm hospitality of Bab Al Bahr.
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The Sand Castle
Director: Matty Brown
Stars: Nadine Labaki, Ziad Bakri, Zain Al Rafeea, Riman Al Rafeea
Rating: 2.5/5
THE SIXTH SENSE
Starring: Bruce Willis, Toni Collette, Hayley Joel Osment
Director: M. Night Shyamalan
Rating: 5/5
How the bonus system works
The two riders are among several riders in the UAE to receive the top payment of £10,000 under the Thank You Fund of £16 million (Dh80m), which was announced in conjunction with Deliveroo's £8 billion (Dh40bn) stock market listing earlier this year.
The £10,000 (Dh50,000) payment is made to those riders who have completed the highest number of orders in each market.
There are also riders who will receive payments of £1,000 (Dh5,000) and £500 (Dh2,500).
All riders who have worked with Deliveroo for at least one year and completed 2,000 orders will receive £200 (Dh1,000), the company said when it announced the scheme.
The Year Earth Changed
Directed by:Tom Beard
Narrated by: Sir David Attenborough
Stars: 4
Dubai Bling season three
Cast: Loujain Adada, Zeina Khoury, Farhana Bodi, Ebraheem Al Samadi, Mona Kattan, and couples Safa & Fahad Siddiqui and DJ Bliss & Danya Mohammed
Rating: 1/5
Formula Middle East Calendar (Formula Regional and Formula 4)
Round 1: January 17-19, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 2: January 22-23, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 3: February 7-9, Dubai Autodrome – Dubai
Round 4: February 14-16, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 5: February 25-27, Jeddah Corniche Circuit – Saudi Arabia
THE SPECS
Engine: 1.5-litre turbocharged four-cylinder
Transmission: Constant Variable (CVT)
Power: 141bhp
Torque: 250Nm
Price: Dh64,500
On sale: Now
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Almnssa
Started: August 2020
Founder: Areej Selmi
Based: Gaza
Sectors: Internet, e-commerce
Investments: Grants/private funding
Paatal Lok season two
Directors: Avinash Arun, Prosit Roy
Stars: Jaideep Ahlawat, Ishwak Singh, Lc Sekhose, Merenla Imsong
Rating: 4.5/5
About Okadoc
Date started: Okadoc, 2018
Founder/CEO: Fodhil Benturquia
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: Healthcare
Size: (employees/revenue) 40 staff; undisclosed revenues recording “double-digit” monthly growth
Funding stage: Series B fundraising round to conclude in February
Investors: Undisclosed
Dengue%20fever%20symptoms
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How to protect yourself when air quality drops
Install an air filter in your home.
Close your windows and turn on the AC.
Shower or bath after being outside.
Wear a face mask.
Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.
If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.
Know before you go
- Jebel Akhdar is a two-hour drive from Muscat airport or a six-hour drive from Dubai. It’s impossible to visit by car unless you have a 4x4. Phone ahead to the hotel to arrange a transfer.
- If you’re driving, make sure your insurance covers Oman.
- By air: Budget airlines Air Arabia, Flydubai and SalamAir offer direct routes to Muscat from the UAE.
- Tourists from the Emirates (UAE nationals not included) must apply for an Omani visa online before arrival at evisa.rop.gov.om. The process typically takes several days.
- Flash floods are probable due to the terrain and a lack of drainage. Always check the weather before venturing into any canyons or other remote areas and identify a plan of escape that includes high ground, shelter and parking where your car won’t be overtaken by sudden downpours.
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