Many investors have bought gold during the past year in response to concerns about financial market stability and inflation, and those who did have been rewarded for taking that view.
For example, since January 4, the metal has risen US$18 (Dh66) an ounce. I believe, however, that gold is now significantly overvalued.
Investors holding the metal should think of selling or "collaring" positions to lock in gains. Investors with a more aggressive approach should consider asymmetrically shorting gold to profit from this market opportunity.
Following the suspension of the implicit international gold standard in 1971, the precious metal has been a good investment in two distinct types of periods: financial market crises and sustained periods of overly accommodative monetary policy
During crises gold is viewed - correctly or not - as the last resort of value. This was reflected in the second half of 2000 and 2008, as well as the mid-1970s and 1980s.
As we enter a calmer financial environment and the fear factor dissipates, I expect this source of demand to disappear.
Over longer periods, the price of gold tends to be a reflection of monetary policy.
The US has had the distinct policy regimes in the past 40 years: accommodative ones between 1968 and 1980 and from 2002 to 2009, which were accompanied by rises in the price of gold, and one marked by restrictive policy, 1981 through 2001, when the price of gold fell by upwards of 60 per cent.
It may be logical to maintain that central banks are administering a massive monetary stimulus, and in the process will debase their currencies, leaving gold as the only reliable store of value.
But on further reflection, current monetary policy is not as accommodative as it might appear: the standard method of calculating what the correct central bank target interest rate should be - the Taylor Rule - suggests that, using the US as an example, with unemployment at 10 per cent and core inflation trending to zero, the rate should be below zero. Negative nominal interest rates are of course not possible to institute, but what this does imply is that policy may be too restrictive, rather than too accommodative.
Policy makers globally have signalled a willingness to prevent further financial crises, and we expect the premium in gold to dissipate rapidly at some point in the next two years.
One cause for the disconnectbetween the price of gold and economic reality is the relatively recent "financialisation" of the metal.
The advent of gold-backed exchange traded funds (ETFs) in 2003 meant that one could invest in the metal without actually owning it, the ramifications of which have been substantial.
Indeed, gold held by ETFs now accounts for between 5 per cent and 6 per cent of all reserves, equivalent to 17 years of industrial demand. And it is important to remember that marginal demand from investors dwarfs demand from central banks. This gold based-ETF demand has caused much confusion about how monetary policy works in a zero interest rate environment; this and the "fear premium" has made gold overvalued.
Given the recent momentum in the price of the metal, and keeping John Maynard Keynes' famous words in mind - "the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent" - investors should deal with gold in a way that limits losses.
Buying longer-dated put options on one of the ETFs is a way to gain this exposure.
My closing advice is that investors who already own gold and have realised significant gains should consider selling their positions, or at least part of them.
Khurram Jafree is the director and head of Investment Advisory, MENA, at Barclays Wealth
If you go
Where to stay: Courtyard by Marriott Titusville Kennedy Space Centre has unparalleled views of the Indian River. Alligators can be spotted from hotel room balconies, as can several rocket launch sites. The hotel also boasts cool space-themed decor.
When to go: Florida is best experienced during the winter months, from November to May, before the humidity kicks in.
How to get there: Emirates currently flies from Dubai to Orlando five times a week.
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: HyperSpace
Started: 2020
Founders: Alexander Heller, Rama Allen and Desi Gonzalez
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: Entertainment
Number of staff: 210
Investment raised: $75 million from investors including Galaxy Interactive, Riyadh Season, Sega Ventures and Apis Venture Partners
The specs
Engine: 2-litre or 3-litre 4Motion all-wheel-drive Power: 250Nm (2-litre); 340 (3-litre) Torque: 450Nm Transmission: 8-speed automatic Starting price: From Dh212,000 On sale: Now
SPECS
Engine: 4-litre V8 twin-turbo
Power: 630hp
Torque: 850Nm
Transmission: 8-speed Tiptronic automatic
Price: From Dh599,000
On sale: Now
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
If you go
The flights
Emirates and Etihad fly direct to Nairobi, with fares starting from Dh1,695. The resort can be reached from Nairobi via a 35-minute flight from Wilson Airport or Jomo Kenyatta International Airport, or by road, which takes at least three hours.
The rooms
Rooms at Fairmont Mount Kenya range from Dh1,870 per night for a deluxe room to Dh11,000 per night for the William Holden Cottage.
Business Insights
- Canada and Mexico are significant energy suppliers to the US, providing the majority of oil and natural gas imports
- The introduction of tariffs could hinder the US's clean energy initiatives by raising input costs for materials like nickel
- US domestic suppliers might benefit from higher prices, but overall oil consumption is expected to decrease due to elevated costs
COMPANY%20PROFILE%20
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EAlmouneer%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202017%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dr%20Noha%20Khater%20and%20Rania%20Kadry%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EEgypt%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20staff%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E120%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EBootstrapped%2C%20with%20support%20from%20Insead%20and%20Egyptian%20government%2C%20seed%20round%20of%20%3Cbr%3E%243.6%20million%20led%20by%20Global%20Ventures%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
RESULTS
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3E5pm%3A%20Sheikh%20Mansour%20bin%20Zayed%20Racing%20Festival%20%E2%80%93%20Handicap%20(PA)%20Dh100%2C000%20(Turf)%202%2C200m%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EWinner%3A%20Suny%20Du%20Loup%2C%20Pat%20Dobbs%20(jockey)%2C%20Hamad%20Al%20Marar%20(trainer)%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3E5.30pm%3A%20Sheikh%20Mansour%20bin%20Zayed%20Racing%20Festival%20Cup%20%E2%80%93%20Conditions%20(PA)%20Dh150%2C000%20(T)%201%2C600m%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EWinner%3A%20Nadia%20Du%20Loup%2C%20Antonio%20Fresu%2C%20Sulaiman%20Al%20Ghunaimi%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3E6pm%3A%20Sheikha%20Fatima%20bint%20Mubarak%20Cup%20%E2%80%93%20Conditions%20(PA)%20Dh150%2C000%20(T)%201%2C600m%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EWinner%3A%20Dareen%2C%20Dane%20O%E2%80%99Neill%2C%20Jean%20de%20Roualle%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3E6.30pm%3A%20Sheikh%20Zayed%20bin%20Sultan%20Al%20Nahyan%20National%20Day%20Cup%20%E2%80%93%20Group%203%20(PA)%20Dh500%2C000%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EWinner%3A%20AF%20Alwajel%2C%20Pat%20Dobbs%2C%20Ernst%20Oertel%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3E7.15pm%3A%20Sheikh%20Zayed%20bin%20Sultan%20Al%20Nahyan%20Jewel%20Crown%20%E2%80%93%20Group%201%20(PA)%20Dh5%2C000%2C000%20(T)%202%2C200m%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EWinner%3A%20First%20Classs%2C%20Ronan%20Thomas%2C%20Jean%20De%20Mieulle%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3E8pm%3A%20Sheikh%20Zayed%20bin%20Sultan%20Al%20Nahyan%20National%20Day%20Cup%20%E2%80%93%20Listed%20(TB)%20Dh380%2C000%20(T)%201%2C600m%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EWinner%3A%20San%20Donato%2C%20Pat%20Dobbs%2C%20Doug%20Watson%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3E8.30pm%3A%20Wathba%20Stallions%20Cup%20%E2%80%93%20Handicap%20(PA)%20Dh100%2C000%20(T)%201%2C600m%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EWinner%3A%20AF%20Rasam%2C%20Fernando%20Jara%2C%20Ernst%20Oertel%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The five pillars of Islam
Nayanthara: Beyond The Fairy Tale
Starring: Nayanthara, Vignesh Shivan, Radhika Sarathkumar, Nagarjuna Akkineni
Director: Amith Krishnan
Rating: 3.5/5
Scoreline
Al Wasl 1 (Caio Canedo 90 1')
Al Ain 2 (Ismail Ahmed 3', Marcus Berg 50')
Red cards: Ismail Ahmed (Al Ain) 77'
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Almnssa
Started: August 2020
Founder: Areej Selmi
Based: Gaza
Sectors: Internet, e-commerce
Investments: Grants/private funding
Disclaimer
Director: Alfonso Cuaron
Stars: Cate Blanchett, Kevin Kline, Lesley Manville
Rating: 4/5
COMPANY PROFILE
Founders: Alhaan Ahmed, Alyina Ahmed and Maximo Tettamanzi
Total funding: Self funded
Company%20Profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Hoopla%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EDate%20started%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EMarch%202023%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounder%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Jacqueline%20Perrottet%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dubai%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20staff%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2010%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EPre-seed%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20required%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%24500%2C000%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Spider-Man: No Way Home
Director: Jon Watts
Stars: Tom Holland, Zendaya, Jacob Batalon
Rating:*****
The specs
Engine: 1.5-litre turbo
Power: 181hp
Torque: 230Nm
Transmission: 6-speed automatic
Starting price: Dh79,000
On sale: Now
Result
UAE (S. Tagliabue 90 1') 1-2 Uzbekistan (Shokhruz Norkhonov 48', 86')
Citadel: Honey Bunny first episode
Directors: Raj & DK
Stars: Varun Dhawan, Samantha Ruth Prabhu, Kashvi Majmundar, Kay Kay Menon
Rating: 4/5
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Surianah's top five jazz artists
Billie Holliday: for the burn and also the way she told stories.
Thelonius Monk: for his earnestness.
Duke Ellington: for his edge and spirituality.
Louis Armstrong: his legacy is undeniable. He is considered as one of the most revolutionary and influential musicians.
Terence Blanchard: very political - a lot of jazz musicians are making protest music right now.
The specs
Engine: Dual 180kW and 300kW front and rear motors
Power: 480kW
Torque: 850Nm
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Price: From Dh359,900 ($98,000)
On sale: Now
MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League quarter-final, second leg (first-leg score):
Manchester City (0) v Tottenham Hotspur (1), Wednesday, 11pm UAE
Match is on BeIN Sports
The specs: 2018 Maxus T60
Price, base / as tested: Dh48,000
Engine: 2.4-litre four-cylinder
Power: 136hp @ 1,600rpm
Torque: 360Nm @ 1,600 rpm
Transmission: Five-speed manual
Fuel consumption, combined: 9.1L / 100km
Dubai World Cup Carnival card
6.30pm: UAE 1000 Guineas Trial Conditions (TB) US$100,000 (Dirt) 1,400m
7.05pm: Handicap (TB) $135,000 (Turf) 1,000m
7.40pm: Handicap (TB) $175,000 (D) 1,900m
8.15pm: Meydan Challenge Listed Handicap (TB) $175,000 (T) 1,400m
8.50pm: Dubai Stakes Group 3 (TB) $200,000 (D) 1,200m
9.25pm: Dubai Racing Club Classic Listed Handicap (TB) $175,000 (T) 2,410m
The National selections
6.30pm: Final Song
7.05pm: Pocket Dynamo
7.40pm: Dubai Icon
8.15pm: Dubai Legacy
8.50pm: Drafted
9.25pm: Lucius Tiberius
Kanguva
Director: Siva
Stars: Suriya, Bobby Deol, Disha Patani, Yogi Babu, Redin Kingsley
COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Eco%20Way%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20December%202023%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounder%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Ivan%20Kroshnyi%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dubai%2C%20UAE%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EIndustry%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Electric%20vehicles%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Bootstrapped%20with%20undisclosed%20funding.%20Looking%20to%20raise%20funds%20from%20outside%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Results:
Men's wheelchair 800m T34: 1. Walid Ktila (TUN) 1.44.79; 2. Mohammed Al Hammadi (UAE) 1.45.88; 3. Isaac Towers (GBR) 1.46.46.
MATCH INFO
Maratha Arabians 107-8 (10 ovs)
Lyth 21, Lynn 20, McClenaghan 20 no
Qalandars 60-4 (10 ovs)
Malan 32 no, McClenaghan 2-9
Maratha Arabians win by 47 runs
Tomb%20Raider%20I%E2%80%93III%20Remastered
%3Cp%3EDeveloper%3A%20Aspyr%0D%3Cbr%3EPublisher%3A%20Aspyr%0D%3Cbr%3EConsole%3A%20Nintendo%20Switch%2C%20PlayStation%204%26amp%3B5%2C%20PC%20and%20Xbox%20series%20X%2FS%0D%3Cbr%3ERating%3A%203%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The biog
Name: Samar Frost
Born: Abu Dhabi
Hobbies: Singing, music and socialising with friends
Favourite singer: Adele
Awar Qalb
Director: Jamal Salem
Starring: Abdulla Zaid, Joma Ali, Neven Madi and Khadija Sleiman
Two stars
The Book of Collateral Damage
Sinan Antoon
(Yale University Press)
THE BIO
Ambition: To create awareness among young about people with disabilities and make the world a more inclusive place
Job Title: Human resources administrator, Expo 2020 Dubai
First jobs: Co-ordinator with Magrudy Enterprises; HR coordinator at Jumeirah Group
Entrepreneur: Started his own graphic design business
Favourite singer: Avril Lavigne
Favourite travel destination: Germany and Saudi Arabia
Family: Six sisters
Company%20profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Fasset%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2019%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Mohammad%20Raafi%20Hossain%2C%20Daniel%20Ahmed%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dubai%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFinTech%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInitial%20investment%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%242.45%20million%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ECurrent%20number%20of%20staff%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2086%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Pre-series%20B%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Investcorp%2C%20Liberty%20City%20Ventures%2C%20Fatima%20Gobi%20Ventures%2C%20Primal%20Capital%2C%20Wealthwell%20Ventures%2C%20FHS%20Capital%2C%20VN2%20Capital%2C%20local%20family%20offices%3C%2Fp%3E%0A