Trader Ryan Falvey on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange. Relentless monetary stimulus and positive growth momentum have seen stock and bond prices across global markets reach record levels over the past eight years. Richard Drew, AP
Trader Ryan Falvey on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange. Relentless monetary stimulus and positive growth momentum have seen stock and bond prices across global markets reach record levels overShow more

Investors must brace themselves for big asset drops and low returns



Investors worldwide face a grim dawn of low returns across debt and equity markets as early as next year, with rich valuations and feeble growth seen pushing gains below historic norms.

That’s the alarm sounded this week from the likes of Morgan Stanley, GAM Holding and Grantham Mayo Van Otterloo.

Relentless monetary stimulus and positive growth momentum have juiced stock and bond prices across global markets to record levels over the past eight years - a feat that likely can’t be repeated.

Here we survey the darkening investment landscape painted by banks and asset managers:

GMO

The value investor, with US$77 billion of assets, issued bearish projections Monday: gear up for negative returns across most asset classes adjusted for inflation for the next seven years, with emerging-market stocks offering the main source of positive gains. US stocks, for example, have posted a 14.3 per cent annualised return over the last five years - GMO projects a 4 per cent annual decline for US large-cap stocks over the next seven years.

Investors are keeping the faith despite rich valuations. Equity funds received a cool $8.8bn in the week to October 18, according to Bank of America, citing EPFR data, spurred by exuberance towards US stocks.

There’s one quantum of solace: Jeremy Grantham’s firm projects US inflation will return to its long-term average, suggesting that if weak core prices endure, the bar for real returns will be lowered.

Morgan Stanley

From sovereign-wealth funds, endowment trusts to pension managers buckling under the weight of unfunded liabilities in the trillions, investors of all stripes will be compelled to snap up alternative and emerging-market assets to juice profits after inflation.

That’s the takeaway from Morgan Stanley strategists this week, who forecast a 60/40 equity-bond portfolio split will deliver 4.2 per cent per year in dollar terms and 4.7 per cent in euros over the next decade - lows not seen since the early 2000s.

“Returns are increasingly hard to achieve without taking on a lot more risk across asset classes thanks to the "compression in risk premiums and lower rates," analysts including Andrew Sheets wrote in a report.

__________

Read more:

Is Black Monday about to strike again?

Time for some crash protection as US stocks hit record overvaluation

__________

Goldman Sachs Group 

And the cloudy outlook for investors could come sooner than you think.

Goldman Sachs projects losses over the next 12 months across US stocks, rate and credit markets and all commodities except oil, suggesting investors will take a breather after this year’s rally that has spurred fears over ’bubblicious’ valuations against the backdrop of still-modest growth.

GAM

"Days are numbered for the multi-asset trinity of positive correlation, high return and low volatility," warns Larry Hatheway, group chief economist. Bond investors will be lucky to post half the returns achieved on average since 2009. And even if debt obligations rally from here - on weaker growth and falling inflation - it will be a nightmare for equities at prevailing valuations, he wrote in a Bloomberg View column.

Hatheway isn’t alone in his diversify-or-be-damned warning: investors wedded to the traditional stock-bond portfolio split in developed markets are set to deliver inflation-adjusted returns of just 1 per cent per year over the next five, according to Pictet Asset Management.

RBC Global Asset Management

Just a small uptick in yields would spur negative total returns across developed sovereign bonds markets, according to the asset manager’s outlook for the next 12 months. Prospective returns for equities are naturally far better - but the valuation tailwind from falling rates may be exhausted and a rise in the discount rate would crimp their relative value.

Robeco Group

A well-diversified portfolio will boost weighted returns, with equities set to outperform, according to Robeco. The global recovery still has legs but there’s now a greater prospect of a mild recession against the backdrop of quantitative tightening, according to the Dutch asset manager.

“On balance, we have lowered our outlook for most assets, and expect to see more volatility ahead,” said Lukas Daalder, chief investment officer for investment solutions, in a note last month.

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Artist: Coldplay

Label: Parlophone/Atlantic

Number of tracks: 10

Rating: 3/5

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Jigra
Director: Vasan Bala
Starring: Alia Bhatt, Vedang Raina, Manoj Pahwa, Harsh Singh
Rated: 3.5/5
BeIN Sports currently has the rights to show

- Champions League

- English Premier League

- Spanish Primera Liga 

- Italian, French and Scottish leagues

- Wimbledon and other tennis majors

- Formula One

- Rugby Union - Six Nations and European Cups

 

The specs: 2018 Ducati SuperSport S

Price, base / as tested: Dh74,900 / Dh85,900

Engine: 937cc

Transmission: Six-speed gearbox

Power: 110hp @ 9,000rpm

Torque: 93Nm @ 6,500rpm

Fuel economy, combined: 5.9L / 100km

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The Melbourne Mercer Global Pension Index

The Melbourne Mercer Global Pension Index

Mazen Abukhater, principal and actuary at global consultancy Mercer, Middle East, says the company’s Melbourne Mercer Global Pension Index - which benchmarks 34 pension schemes across the globe to assess their adequacy, sustainability and integrity - included Saudi Arabia for the first time this year to offer a glimpse into the region.

The index highlighted fundamental issues for all 34 countries, such as a rapid ageing population and a low growth / low interest environment putting pressure on expected returns. It also highlighted the increasing popularity around the world of defined contribution schemes.

“Average life expectancy has been increasing by about three years every 10 years. Someone born in 1947 is expected to live until 85 whereas someone born in 2007 is expected to live to 103,” Mr Abukhater told the Mena Pensions Conference.

“Are our systems equipped to handle these kind of life expectancies in the future? If so many people retire at 60, they are going to be in retirement for 43 years – so we need to adapt our retirement age to our changing life expectancy.”

Saudi Arabia came in the middle of Mercer’s ranking with a score of 58.9. The report said the country's index could be raised by improving the minimum level of support for the poorest aged individuals and increasing the labour force participation rate at older ages as life expectancies rise.

Mr Abukhater said the challenges of an ageing population, increased life expectancy and some individuals relying solely on their government for financial support in their retirement years will put the system under strain.

“To relieve that pressure, governments need to consider whether it is time to switch to a defined contribution scheme so that individuals can supplement their own future with the help of government support,” he said.

MATCH INFO

What: 2006 World Cup quarter-final
When: July 1
Where: Gelsenkirchen Stadium, Gelsenkirchen, Germany

Result:
England 0 Portugal 0
(Portugal win 3-1 on penalties)

The specs

Engine: Dual 180kW and 300kW front and rear motors

Power: 480kW

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Transmission: Single-speed automatic

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The specs

Engine: 1.5-litre 4-cylinder petrol

Power: 154bhp

Torque: 250Nm

Transmission: 7-speed automatic with 8-speed sports option 

Price: From Dh79,600

On sale: Now

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MATCH INFO

Mainz 0

RB Leipzig 5 (Werner 11', 48', 75', Poulsen 23', Sabitzer 36')

Man of the Match: Timo Werner (RB Leipzig)

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Three tips from La Perle's performers

1 The kind of water athletes drink is important. Gwilym Hooson, a 28-year-old British performer who is currently recovering from knee surgery, found that out when the company was still in Studio City, training for 12 hours a day. “The physio team was like: ‘Why is everyone getting cramps?’ And then they realised we had to add salt and sugar to the water,” he says.

2 A little chocolate is a good thing. “It’s emergency energy,” says Craig Paul Smith, La Perle’s head coach and former Cirque du Soleil performer, gesturing to an almost-empty open box of mini chocolate bars on his desk backstage.

3 Take chances, says Young, who has worked all over the world, including most recently at Dragone’s show in China. “Every time we go out of our comfort zone, we learn a lot about ourselves,” she says.

UAE's final round of matches
  • Sep 1, 2016 Beat Japan 2-1 (away)
  • Sep 6, 2016 Lost to Australia 1-0 (home)
  • Oct 6, 2016 Beat Thailand 3-1 (home)
  • Oct 11, 2016 Lost to Saudi Arabia 3-0 (away)
  • Nov 15, 2016 Beat Iraq 2-0 (home)
  • Mar 23, 2017 Lost to Japan 2-0 (home)
  • Mar 28, 2017 Lost to Australia 2-0 (away)
  • June 13, 2017 Drew 1-1 with Thailand (away)
  • Aug 29, 2017 v Saudi Arabia (home)
  • Sep 5, 2017 v Iraq (away)
TEACHERS' PAY - WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW

Pay varies significantly depending on the school, its rating and the curriculum. Here's a rough guide as of January 2021:

- top end schools tend to pay Dh16,000-17,000 a month - plus a monthly housing allowance of up to Dh6,000. These tend to be British curriculum schools rated 'outstanding' or 'very good', followed by American schools

- average salary across curriculums and skill levels is about Dh10,000, recruiters say

- it is becoming more common for schools to provide accommodation, sometimes in an apartment block with other teachers, rather than hand teachers a cash housing allowance

- some strong performing schools have cut back on salaries since the pandemic began, sometimes offering Dh16,000 including the housing allowance, which reflects the slump in rental costs, and sheer demand for jobs

- maths and science teachers are most in demand and some schools will pay up to Dh3,000 more than other teachers in recognition of their technical skills

- at the other end of the market, teachers in some Indian schools, where fees are lower and competition among applicants is intense, can be paid as low as Dh3,000 per month

- in Indian schools, it has also become common for teachers to share residential accommodation, living in a block with colleagues

Singham Again

Director: Rohit Shetty

Stars: Ajay Devgn, Kareena Kapoor Khan, Ranveer Singh, Akshay Kumar, Tiger Shroff, Deepika Padukone

Rating: 3/5

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Thank You for Banking with Us

Director: Laila Abbas

Starring: Yasmine Al Massri, Clara Khoury, Kamel El Basha, Ashraf Barhoum

Rating: 4/5

BUNDESLIGA FIXTURES

Friday (all kick-offs UAE time)

Hertha Berlin v Union Berlin (10.30pm)

Saturday

Freiburg v Werder Bremen (5.30pm)

Paderborn v Hoffenheim (5.30pm)

Wolfsburg v Borussia Dortmund (5.30pm)

Borussia Monchengladbach v Bayer Leverkusen (5.30pm)

Bayern Munich v Eintracht Frankfurt (5.30pm)

Sunday

Schalke v Augsburg (3.30pm)

Mainz v RB Leipzig (5.30pm)

Cologne v Fortuna Dusseldorf (8pm)

EA Sports FC 25
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BUNDESLIGA FIXTURES

Friday Hertha Berlin v Union Berlin (11.30pm)

Saturday Freiburg v Borussia Monchengladbach, Eintracht Frankfurt v Borussia Dortmund, Cologne v Wolfsburg, Arminia Bielefeld v Mainz (6.30pm) Bayern Munich v RB Leipzig (9.30pm)

Sunday Werder Bremen v Stuttgart (6.30pm), Schalke v Bayer Leverkusen (9pm)

Monday Hoffenheim v Augsburg (11.30pm)

APPLE IPAD MINI (A17 PRO)

Display: 21cm Liquid Retina Display, 2266 x 1488, 326ppi, 500 nits

Chip: Apple A17 Pro, 6-core CPU, 5-core GPU, 16-core Neural Engine

Storage: 128/256/512GB

Main camera: 12MP wide, f/1.8, digital zoom up to 5x, Smart HDR 4

Front camera: 12MP ultra-wide, f/2.4, Smart HDR 4, full-HD @ 25/30/60fps

Biometrics: Touch ID, Face ID

Colours: Blue, purple, space grey, starlight

In the box: iPad mini, USB-C cable, 20W USB-C power adapter

Price: From Dh2,099

How Tesla’s price correction has hit fund managers

Investing in disruptive technology can be a bumpy ride, as investors in Tesla were reminded on Friday, when its stock dropped 7.5 per cent in early trading to $575.

It recovered slightly but still ended the week 15 per cent lower and is down a third from its all-time high of $883 on January 26. The electric car maker’s market cap fell from $834 billion to about $567bn in that time, a drop of an astonishing $267bn, and a blow for those who bought Tesla stock late.

The collapse also hit fund managers that have gone big on Tesla, notably the UK-based Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust and Cathie Wood’s ARK Innovation ETF.

Tesla is the top holding in both funds, making up a hefty 10 per cent of total assets under management. Both funds have fallen by a quarter in the past month.

Matt Weller, global head of market research at GAIN Capital, recently warned that Tesla founder Elon Musk had “flown a bit too close to the sun”, after getting carried away by investing $1.5bn of the company’s money in Bitcoin.

He also predicted Tesla’s sales could struggle as traditional auto manufacturers ramp up electric car production, destroying its first mover advantage.

AJ Bell’s Russ Mould warns that many investors buy tech stocks when earnings forecasts are rising, almost regardless of valuation. “When it works, it really works. But when it goes wrong, elevated valuations leave little or no downside protection.”

A Tesla correction was probably baked in after last year’s astonishing share price surge, and many investors will see this as an opportunity to load up at a reduced price.

Dramatic swings are to be expected when investing in disruptive technology, as Ms Wood at ARK makes clear.

Every week, she sends subscribers a commentary listing “stocks in our strategies that have appreciated or dropped more than 15 per cent in a day” during the week.

Her latest commentary, issued on Friday, showed seven stocks displaying extreme volatility, led by ExOne, a leader in binder jetting 3D printing technology. It jumped 24 per cent, boosted by news that fellow 3D printing specialist Stratasys had beaten fourth-quarter revenues and earnings expectations, seen as good news for the sector.

By contrast, computational drug and material discovery company Schrödinger fell 27 per cent after quarterly and full-year results showed its core software sales and drug development pipeline slowing.

Despite that setback, Ms Wood remains positive, arguing that its “medicinal chemistry platform offers a powerful and unique view into chemical space”.

In her weekly video view, she remains bullish, stating that: “We are on the right side of change, and disruptive innovation is going to deliver exponential growth trajectories for many of our companies, in fact, most of them.”

Ms Wood remains committed to Tesla as she expects global electric car sales to compound at an average annual rate of 82 per cent for the next five years.

She said these are so “enormous that some people find them unbelievable”, and argues that this scepticism, especially among institutional investors, “festers” and creates a great opportunity for ARK.

Only you can decide whether you are a believer or a festering sceptic. If it’s the former, then buckle up.

THE LOWDOWN

Romeo Akbar Walter

Rating: 2/5 stars
Produced by: Dharma Productions, Azure Entertainment
Directed by: Robby Grewal
Cast: John Abraham, Mouni Roy, Jackie Shroff and Sikandar Kher 

Uefa Nations League: How it works

The Uefa Nations League, introduced last year, has reached its final stage, to be played over five days in northern Portugal. The format of its closing tournament is compact, spread over two semi-finals, with the first, Portugal versus Switzerland in Porto on Wednesday evening, and the second, England against the Netherlands, in Guimaraes, on Thursday.

The winners of each semi will then meet at Porto’s Dragao stadium on Sunday, with the losing semi-finalists contesting a third-place play-off in Guimaraes earlier that day.

Qualifying for the final stage was via League A of the inaugural Nations League, in which the top 12 European countries according to Uefa's co-efficient seeding system were divided into four groups, the teams playing each other twice between September and November. Portugal, who finished above Italy and Poland, successfully bid to host the finals.

COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Almnssa
Started: August 2020
Founder: Areej Selmi
Based: Gaza
Sectors: Internet, e-commerce
Investments: Grants/private funding
The National in Davos

We are bringing you the inside story from the World Economic Forum's Annual Meeting in Davos, a gathering of hundreds of world leaders, top executives and billionaires.

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EMIRATES'S%20REVISED%20A350%20DEPLOYMENT%20SCHEDULE
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In numbers: China in Dubai

The number of Chinese people living in Dubai: An estimated 200,000

Number of Chinese people in International City: Almost 50,000

Daily visitors to Dragon Mart in 2018/19: 120,000

Daily visitors to Dragon Mart in 2010: 20,000

Percentage increase in visitors in eight years: 500 per cent

COMPANY%20PROFILE
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Our legal columnist

Name: Yousef Al Bahar

Advocate at Al Bahar & Associate Advocates and Legal Consultants, established in 1994

Education: Mr Al Bahar was born in 1979 and graduated in 2008 from the Judicial Institute. He took after his father, who was one of the first Emirati lawyers

SPECS

Engine: 4-litre V8 twin-turbo
Power: 630hp
Torque: 850Nm
Transmission: 8-speed Tiptronic automatic
Price: From Dh599,000
On sale: Now

Tree of Hell

Starring: Raed Zeno, Hadi Awada, Dr Mohammad Abdalla

Director: Raed Zeno

Rating: 4/5

THE DETAILS

Director: Milan Jhaveri
Producer: Emmay Entertainment and T-Series
Cast: John Abraham, Manoj Bajpayee
Rating: 2/5


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