The most sophisticated currency trade I've ever made took place at the airport several weeks back, after I found a few stray Egyptian pounds stuffed in my pocket while returning from Cairo. I slid the 100 pounds or so under the glass at the currency exchange counter. The man pounded on his calculator for a bit, and he handed me about Dh65.
In my world, that qualifies as high finance.
I was thinking of that episode the other day when I had an occasion to sit down with two gentlemen in the business of advising people whose net worth includes several more zeroes than my own.
Their overall analysis would likely lift the spirits of regional investors of all sizes. "There is too much gloom and doom" in the markets, proclaimed Giles Keating, the head of global research with Credit Suisse.
Mr Keating, who is based in Zurich, was in Dubai spreading his message that the naysayers are reading the global economy all wrong and that this year would see a "robust" recovery in most asset classes.
His colleague Kamran Butt, the Credit Suisse head of Middle East equity research, issued a similarly sunny prognosis for the regional economy, predicting that the UAE will post non-oil GDP growth this year despite the downturn.
But I was struck by Mr Butt's comment when asked what he was hearing most frequently from his wealthy clients.
"The theme of diversification is really quite prominent," said Mr Butt.
For most retail investors, diversification means building a portfolio with a mix of stocks and bonds, or at least investing in mutual funds instead of only individual stocks (there remain those who consider themselves fully diversified if they charge evenly among their Visa and MasterCard).
Mr Butt, however, was talking about the increased appetite among investors for alternative plays such as currencies and commodities.
The numbers bear out the trend: the Dubai Gold and Commodities Exchange (DGCX) in February saw a 146 per cent spike in volumes compared to last year, while the Dubai Mercantile Exchange posted a record level of future contracts outstanding.
This is notable, as many local investors have been content to ride the rising tide of oil prices and property values that has lifted almost all boats in the past decade. Now, however, it seems they are pursuing more hedging strategies that could limit the stomach-churning volatility of late.
There are several factors at play. One is that other asset classes are - let's put it charitably - less attractive than they have been in recent years. Local equity markets are sluggish, with depressingly low volumes, and it takes a cast-iron stomach to wade into the property market at the moment.
Another is that experts like Mr Keating and Mr Butt see weakness in the US dollar on the horizon. "Our mid-to long-term view remains fundamentally that the dollar will be on a bearish trend," Mr Butt says.
This is especially significant for UAE residents, given that the value of the dirham is pegged to the dollar. As a result, some local investors who think they are adequately diversified "don't always notice the actual currency exposure they have", Mr Butt says. The move to non-dollar-based assets, like commodities and foreign currencies, is their attempt to achieve a better balance. In this region, most savvy investors are familiar with how to trade commodities, particularly oil and gold.
Currencies are another matter. For example, when talking with the Credit Suisse guys, they recommended owning euros and Swiss francs, as well as a selected basket of currencies from emerging markets, including the Brazilian real, Mexican peso and Indonesian rupiah. Fair enough, that sounded perfectly sensible.
Still, I walked out wondering if most retail investors are about as experienced in currency trading as I was returning from Cairo.
But after a few conversations with the experts in the field, I identified several relatively straightforward methods of playing the foreign currency market, or forex as those in the know like to call it.
Perhaps the easiest is through an exchange-traded fund, or ETF. This is basically a mutual fund that trades like a stock in that its value changes throughout the trading day. For instance, those looking to hedge against the falling dollar might want to look at the Powershares US Dollar Index Bearish Fund, which "shorts" the dollar by trading in the euro, Japanese yen, British pound, Canadian dollar, Swedish krona and Swiss franc. Another option is to find a broker who listed on the DGCX, of which there are more than 140.
The obvious allure is that you benefit from the advice of a professional who actively monitors the forex market on a daily basis.
"If you are not that sophisticated, you should be working very closely with a broker," Eric Hasham, the chief executive of the Dubai Gold and Commodities Exchange, told me.
One potential pitfall of working with a broker is the cost involved, as most will charge fees for each transaction (most ETFs, by comparison, charge minimal fees).
Mr Hasham says brokers will establish an online account for experienced currency traders capable of identifying and executing trades on their own. The average investor should stick with an account that requires the broker to place the trade on the client's behalf, providing a safeguard against pursuing a trade without the client understanding the risk involved. About 90 per cent of brokers registered with DGCX are based in Dubai, but some have branch offices in Abu Dhabi.
A third option is a so-called structured product. This is basically a custom-designed vehicle developed by a bank to achieve a specific goal such as, to name the relevant example, hedging against the dollar. As Mr Butt noted, these investments have garnered a fair share of bad publicity in recent years, largely because some that were sold as practically risk-free imploded in the bear market.
But Mr Butt says a well-designed structured product remains the most effective way to participate in the upside of a currency strategy and still protect against losses if the expected trend does not materialise. These vehicles are often available only to high-end investors with minimums of tens of thousands of dollars.
Overall, Mr Hasham's advice is sound, that it is "highly important that investors understand the product they are trading and the risk of the environment they are trading in".
That brings me to a final option: stick with hard currency. If you're angling to diversify, you can always simply take a wad of dirhams or dollars down to the bank or an exchange house and swap it for a currency that you think is better positioned. Should the dollar fall, you could collect a tidy return.
It's a variant on the old "cash under the mattress" investing method - the cash is just of a different colour.
breagan@thenational.ae
THE%20HOLDOVERS
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COMPANY%20PROFILE%20
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COMPANY PROFILE
Founders: Alhaan Ahmed, Alyina Ahmed and Maximo Tettamanzi
Total funding: Self funded
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Almnssa
Started: August 2020
Founder: Areej Selmi
Based: Gaza
Sectors: Internet, e-commerce
Investments: Grants/private funding
A timeline of the Historical Dictionary of the Arabic Language
- 2018: Formal work begins
- November 2021: First 17 volumes launched
- November 2022: Additional 19 volumes released
- October 2023: Another 31 volumes released
- November 2024: All 127 volumes completed
Banthology: Stories from Unwanted Nations
Edited by Sarah Cleave, Comma Press
Rooney's club record
At Everton Appearances: 77; Goals: 17
At Manchester United Appearances: 559; Goals: 253
Ammar 808:
Maghreb United
Sofyann Ben Youssef
Glitterbeat
Know your cyber adversaries
Cryptojacking: Compromises a device or network to mine cryptocurrencies without an organisation's knowledge.
Distributed denial-of-service: Floods systems, servers or networks with information, effectively blocking them.
Man-in-the-middle attack: Intercepts two-way communication to obtain information, spy on participants or alter the outcome.
Malware: Installs itself in a network when a user clicks on a compromised link or email attachment.
Phishing: Aims to secure personal information, such as passwords and credit card numbers.
Ransomware: Encrypts user data, denying access and demands a payment to decrypt it.
Spyware: Collects information without the user's knowledge, which is then passed on to bad actors.
Trojans: Create a backdoor into systems, which becomes a point of entry for an attack.
Viruses: Infect applications in a system and replicate themselves as they go, just like their biological counterparts.
Worms: Send copies of themselves to other users or contacts. They don't attack the system, but they overload it.
Zero-day exploit: Exploits a vulnerability in software before a fix is found.
The Limehouse Golem
Director: Juan Carlos Medina
Cast: Olivia Cooke, Bill Nighy, Douglas Booth
Three stars
Business Insights
- Canada and Mexico are significant energy suppliers to the US, providing the majority of oil and natural gas imports
- The introduction of tariffs could hinder the US's clean energy initiatives by raising input costs for materials like nickel
- US domestic suppliers might benefit from higher prices, but overall oil consumption is expected to decrease due to elevated costs
Ticket prices
- Golden circle - Dh995
- Floor Standing - Dh495
- Lower Bowl Platinum - Dh95
- Lower Bowl premium - Dh795
- Lower Bowl Plus - Dh695
- Lower Bowl Standard- Dh595
- Upper Bowl Premium - Dh395
- Upper Bowl standard - Dh295
Our family matters legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
Walls
Louis Tomlinson
3 out of 5 stars
(Syco Music/Arista Records)
The specs
Engine: Direct injection 4-cylinder 1.4-litre
Power: 150hp
Torque: 250Nm
Price: From Dh139,000
On sale: Now
The specs
Engine: 3.0-litre six-cylinder turbo
Power: 398hp from 5,250rpm
Torque: 580Nm at 1,900-4,800rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Fuel economy, combined: 6.5L/100km
On sale: December
Price: From Dh330,000 (estimate)
Ruwais timeline
1971 Abu Dhabi National Oil Company established
1980 Ruwais Housing Complex built, located 10 kilometres away from industrial plants
1982 120,000 bpd capacity Ruwais refinery complex officially inaugurated by the founder of the UAE Sheikh Zayed
1984 Second phase of Ruwais Housing Complex built. Today the 7,000-unit complex houses some 24,000 people.
1985 The refinery is expanded with the commissioning of a 27,000 b/d hydro cracker complex
2009 Plans announced to build $1.2 billion fertilizer plant in Ruwais, producing urea
2010 Adnoc awards $10bn contracts for expansion of Ruwais refinery, to double capacity from 415,000 bpd
2014 Ruwais 261-outlet shopping mall opens
2014 Production starts at newly expanded Ruwais refinery, providing jet fuel and diesel and allowing the UAE to be self-sufficient for petrol supplies
2014 Etihad Rail begins transportation of sulphur from Shah and Habshan to Ruwais for export
2017 Aldar Academies to operate Adnoc’s schools including in Ruwais from September. Eight schools operate in total within the housing complex.
2018 Adnoc announces plans to invest $3.1 billion on upgrading its Ruwais refinery
2018 NMC Healthcare selected to manage operations of Ruwais Hospital
2018 Adnoc announces new downstream strategy at event in Abu Dhabi on May 13
Source: The National
Company%20Profile
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The Sand Castle
Director: Matty Brown
Stars: Nadine Labaki, Ziad Bakri, Zain Al Rafeea, Riman Al Rafeea
Rating: 2.5/5
Nayanthara: Beyond The Fairy Tale
Starring: Nayanthara, Vignesh Shivan, Radhika Sarathkumar, Nagarjuna Akkineni
Director: Amith Krishnan
Rating: 3.5/5
Company%20Profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Hoopla%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EDate%20started%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EMarch%202023%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounder%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Jacqueline%20Perrottet%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dubai%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20staff%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2010%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EPre-seed%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20required%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%24500%2C000%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
If you go
Where to stay: Courtyard by Marriott Titusville Kennedy Space Centre has unparalleled views of the Indian River. Alligators can be spotted from hotel room balconies, as can several rocket launch sites. The hotel also boasts cool space-themed decor.
When to go: Florida is best experienced during the winter months, from November to May, before the humidity kicks in.
How to get there: Emirates currently flies from Dubai to Orlando five times a week.
How to protect yourself when air quality drops
Install an air filter in your home.
Close your windows and turn on the AC.
Shower or bath after being outside.
Wear a face mask.
Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.
If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.
THE SPECS
Range Rover Sport Autobiography Dynamic
Engine: 5.0-litre supercharged V8
Transmission: six-speed manual
Power: 518bhp
Torque: 625Nm
Speed: 0-100kmh 5.3 seconds
Price: Dh633,435
On sale: now
South Africa squad
Faf du Plessis (captain), Hashim Amla, Temba Bavuma, Quinton de Kock (wicketkeeper), Theunis de Bruyn, AB de Villiers, Dean Elgar, Heinrich Klaasen (wicketkeeper), Keshav Maharaj, Aiden Markram, Morne Morkel, Wiaan Mulder, Lungi Ngidi, Vernon Philander and Kagiso Rabada.
Business Insights
- As per the document, there are six filing options, including choosing to report on a realisation basis and transitional rules for pre-tax period gains or losses.
- SMEs with revenue below Dh3 million per annum can opt for transitional relief until 2026, treating them as having no taxable income.
- Larger entities have specific provisions for asset and liability movements, business restructuring, and handling foreign permanent establishments.
match details
Wales v Hungary
Cardiff City Stadium, kick-off 11.45pm
You may remember …
Robbie Keane (Atletico de Kolkata) The Irish striker is, along with his former Spurs teammate Dimitar Berbatov, the headline figure in this season’s ISL, having joined defending champions ATK. His grand entrance after arrival from Major League Soccer in the US will be delayed by three games, though, due to a knee injury.
Dimitar Berbatov (Kerala Blasters) Word has it that Rene Meulensteen, the Kerala manager, plans to deploy his Bulgarian star in central midfield. The idea of Berbatov as an all-action, box-to-box midfielder, might jar with Spurs and Manchester United supporters, who more likely recall an always-languid, often-lazy striker.
Wes Brown (Kerala Blasters) Revived his playing career last season to help out at Blackburn Rovers, where he was also a coach. Since then, the 23-cap England centre back, who is now 38, has been reunited with the former Manchester United assistant coach Meulensteen, after signing for Kerala.
Andre Bikey (Jamshedpur) The Cameroonian defender is onto the 17th club of a career has taken him to Spain, Portugal, Russia, the UK, Greece, and now India. He is still only 32, so there is plenty of time to add to that tally, too. Scored goals against Liverpool and Chelsea during his time with Reading in England.
Emiliano Alfaro (Pune City) The Uruguayan striker has played for Liverpool – the Montevideo one, rather than the better-known side in England – and Lazio in Italy. He was prolific for a season at Al Wasl in the Arabian Gulf League in 2012/13. He returned for one season with Fujairah, whom he left to join Pune.
The currency conundrum
Russ Mould, investment director at online trading platform AJ Bell, says almost every major currency has challenges right now. “The US has a huge budget deficit, the euro faces political friction and poor growth, sterling is bogged down by Brexit, China’s renminbi is hit by debt fears while slowing Chinese growth is hurting commodity exporters like Australia and Canada.”
Most countries now actively want a weak currency to make their exports more competitive. “China seems happy to let the renminbi drift lower, the Swiss are still running quantitative easing at full tilt and central bankers everywhere are actively talking down their currencies or offering only limited support," says Mr Mould.
This is a race to the bottom, and everybody wants to be a winner.
City's slump
L - Juventus, 2-0
D - C Palace, 2-2
W - N Forest, 3-0
L - Liverpool, 2-0
D - Feyenoord, 3-3
L - Tottenham, 4-0
L - Brighton, 2-1
L - Sporting, 4-1
L - Bournemouth, 2-1
L - Tottenham, 2-1
THE SPECS
Engine: 1.5-litre turbocharged four-cylinder
Transmission: Constant Variable (CVT)
Power: 141bhp
Torque: 250Nm
Price: Dh64,500
On sale: Now
Wicked
Director: Jon M Chu
Stars: Cynthia Erivo, Ariana Grande, Jonathan Bailey
Company%20Profile
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Company%20Profile
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DUNE%3A%20PART%20TWO
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The specs
Engine: 1.5-litre 4-cylinder petrol
Power: 154bhp
Torque: 250Nm
Transmission: 7-speed automatic with 8-speed sports option
Price: From Dh79,600
On sale: Now
John%20Wick%3A%20Chapter%204
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Chad%20Stahelski%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Keanu%20Reeves%2C%20Laurence%20Fishburne%2C%20George%20Georgiou%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E4%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The specs
Engine: 0.8-litre four cylinder
Power: 70bhp
Torque: 66Nm
Transmission: four-speed manual
Price: $1,075 new in 1967, now valued at $40,000
On sale: Models from 1966 to 1970
If you go...
Fly from Dubai or Abu Dhabi to Chiang Mai in Thailand, via Bangkok, before taking a five-hour bus ride across the Laos border to Huay Xai. The land border crossing at Huay Xai is a well-trodden route, meaning entry is swift, though travellers should be aware of visa requirements for both countries.
Flights from Dubai start at Dh4,000 return with Emirates, while Etihad flights from Abu Dhabi start at Dh2,000. Local buses can be booked in Chiang Mai from around Dh50
The specs: 2019 Mercedes-Benz GLE
Price, base / as tested Dh274,000 (estimate)
Engine 3.0-litre inline six-cylinder
Gearbox Nine-speed automatic
Power 245hp @ 4,200rpm
Torque 500Nm @ 1,600rpm
Fuel economy, combined 6.4L / 100km
SPECS
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%206-cylinder%203-litre%2C%20with%20petrol%20and%20diesel%20variants%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E8-speed%20automatic%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20286hp%20(petrol)%2C%20249hp%20(diesel)%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E450Nm%20(petrol)%2C%20550Nm%20(diesel)%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EStarting%20at%20%2469%2C800%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ENow%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
What are NFTs?
Are non-fungible tokens a currency, asset, or a licensing instrument? Arnab Das, global market strategist EMEA at Invesco, says they are mix of all of three.
You can buy, hold and use NFTs just like US dollars and Bitcoins. “They can appreciate in value and even produce cash flows.”
However, while money is fungible, NFTs are not. “One Bitcoin, dollar, euro or dirham is largely indistinguishable from the next. Nothing ties a dollar bill to a particular owner, for example. Nor does it tie you to to any goods, services or assets you bought with that currency. In contrast, NFTs confer specific ownership,” Mr Das says.
This makes NFTs closer to a piece of intellectual property such as a work of art or licence, as you can claim royalties or profit by exchanging it at a higher value later, Mr Das says. “They could provide a sustainable income stream.”
This income will depend on future demand and use, which makes NFTs difficult to value. “However, there is a credible use case for many forms of intellectual property, notably art, songs, videos,” Mr Das says.
Dubai World Cup factbox
Most wins by a trainer: Godolphin’s Saeed bin Suroor(9)
Most wins by a jockey: Jerry Bailey(4)
Most wins by an owner: Godolphin(9)
Most wins by a horse: Godolphin’s Thunder Snow(2)
Company profile
Name: Oulo.com
Founder: Kamal Nazha
Based: Dubai
Founded: 2020
Number of employees: 5
Sector: Technology
Funding: $450,000
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: HyperSpace
Started: 2020
Founders: Alexander Heller, Rama Allen and Desi Gonzalez
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: Entertainment
Number of staff: 210
Investment raised: $75 million from investors including Galaxy Interactive, Riyadh Season, Sega Ventures and Apis Venture Partners
UFC Fight Night 2
1am – Early prelims
2am – Prelims
4am-7am – Main card
7:30am-9am – press cons
Moral education needed in a 'rapidly changing world'
Moral education lessons for young people is needed in a rapidly changing world, the head of the programme said.
Alanood Al Kaabi, head of programmes at the Education Affairs Office of the Crown Price Court - Abu Dhabi, said: "The Crown Price Court is fully behind this initiative and have already seen the curriculum succeed in empowering young people and providing them with the necessary tools to succeed in building the future of the nation at all levels.
"Moral education touches on every aspect and subject that children engage in.
"It is not just limited to science or maths but it is involved in all subjects and it is helping children to adapt to integral moral practises.
"The moral education programme has been designed to develop children holistically in a world being rapidly transformed by technology and globalisation."
Kill%20Bill%20Volume%201
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Winners
Best Men's Player of the Year: Kylian Mbappe (PSG)
Maradona Award for Best Goal Scorer of the Year: Robert Lewandowski (Bayern Munich)
TikTok Fans’ Player of the Year: Robert Lewandowski
Top Goal Scorer of All Time: Cristiano Ronaldo (Manchester United)
Best Women's Player of the Year: Alexia Putellas (Barcelona)
Best Men's Club of the Year: Chelsea
Best Women's Club of the Year: Barcelona
Best Defender of the Year: Leonardo Bonucci (Juventus/Italy)
Best Goalkeeper of the Year: Gianluigi Donnarumma (PSG/Italy)
Best Coach of the Year: Roberto Mancini (Italy)
Best National Team of the Year: Italy
Best Agent of the Year: Federico Pastorello
Best Sporting Director of the Year: Txiki Begiristain (Manchester City)
Player Career Award: Ronaldinho
