Location, location, location

The global financial crisis has left some mouth-watering property opportunities in its wake.

Some European and North American residential markets are predicted to grow, with potentially lucrative deals also to be made in the commercial sector.

The current era of international property investment will be dominated by a new conservatism, in contrast to much of the over-adventurous property investment made prior to the global financial crisis.

According to Andrew Hawkins, head of international property at international estate agent Chesterton Humberts: "What we are seeing following the financial crisis is a flight to quality, with investors now focusing on certain locations."

Chesterton Humberts reports there is a growing interest in locations such as France, Spain and Switzerland on the part of international investors, with some locations having particular appeal to Middle Eastern investors.

"At the moment, you generally find that investors are looking for safe, mature markets such as the French Alps and Switzerland.

"People should also look at Spain," says Mr Hawkins.

He believes that, although residential values have fallen 15 per cent to 25 per cent following the financial crisis, this region of France is set for recovery and should prove appealing for investors.

The French Alps stretch across the Rhône-Alpes and Provence-Alpes- Côte d'Azur (PACA) regions.

Chesterton Humberts says average new housing prices fell in both 2008 and 2009 in Rhône-Alpes by a total of 5.9 per cent, but in the first half of 2010 posted a recovery of 4.9 per cent. New apartments, having seen prices fall by 4.4 per cent in 2008, recovered in 2009 to record 5 per cent growth, although this rate has slowed to 0.5 per cent in the first half of 2010.

The new-home market in PACA saw average house prices rising a total of 18.3 per cent over the last three years and apartment prices rising by 6.2 per cent (despite a 1 per cent drop in 2009).

Mr Hawkins believes that a contributing factor is that the quality of French winter holiday accommodations has improved considerably over the past three decades, due largely to its large-scale resorts.

Paradiski in Savoie, which comprises the sub-resorts of Les Arcs, Peisey Villandray and La Plagne, offers 425 kilometres of pistes. Combined with Les Trois Vallées (eight sub-resorts including the prestigious Courchevel), it is the largest ski area in the world connected solely by lifts. There are also resorts based on traditional villages which offer more character (for example, Chamonix, which was site of the first winter Olympics in 1924) as do a number of the newer resorts which have been developed, such as Valmorel, La Rosière and La Tania.

Mr Hawkins believes that the Spanish island of Majorca is a location likely to prove increasingly popular with Middle Eastern investors. "After a rough couple of years, Majorca is looking interesting again to international investors from countries such as Switzerland, Germany and Scandinavia."

He recommends that investors in the island's residential sector try and buy within one to one-and-a-half kilometres from the airport and near to the coast, preferably with a sea view. According to Chesterton Humberts, the south-west part of the island is particularly popular with Middle Eastern buyers.

But Mr Hawkins also believes that the highly regulated market of Switzerland offers Middle Eastern investors an interesting long-term opportunity. House prices in that nation have bucked the global trend. The single-family homes index rose 5.3 per cent during the year to January 2009 (4.5 per cent in real terms), while the owner-occupied apartment index increased 5.6 per cent (4.8 per cent in real terms) over the same period, according to the Swiss National Bank.

"Switzerland's position at the geographical centre of Europe and renowned high standards of living make it a sought-after regional base. Buying in Switzerland is a long-term investment - it has a very stable economy, low interest rates and the property market growth is steady. In the current economic climate, many investors are looking to Switzerland as a veritable 'port in a storm'," says Mr Hawkins.

The highly regulated Swiss market places many restrictions on foreign ownership of residential properties. While there are signs that this attitude may be starting to thaw, certain limits still apply to foreign nationals who wish to purchase land or property as set out in the Swiss Federal Law on the Acquisition of Property by Persons Resident Abroad ( generally referred to as "the Lex Koller").

In accordance with the Lex Koller, a maximum of 1,500 units may be sold to non-residents nationally every year. Ownership of property does not automatically entitle a foreign national to a residence permit. Non-resident foreigners may be authorised to purchase a holiday home or investment property in places designated as holiday resorts within 16 cantons, which may be rented out only to a limited extent. The net living area must not exceed 200 square metres. But, according to Chesterton Humberts, the future of the Lex Koller is uncertain. In July 2007, the federal government announced it would cease to apply after 2010, and that each canton would have responsibility for its own foreign property acquisition laws. While a replacement system acceptable to the federal government is being decided, the current ruling remains in place.

It is this tight control on new development which has helped Swiss residential property prices resist any major downturn.

Chesterton Humberts reports that Germans are the dominant foreign ownership category, accounting for nearly 30 per cent of total property transfers to foreign residents between 1996 and 2008, followed by Italy with 16 per cent and the UK with 13 per cent. At a regional level, Lake Geneva has shown the strongest aggregate performance during the last decade, with owner-occupied apartments more than doubling in value. Single family homes almost doubled during this time as well.

The increasing investor focus on European property is thought to be in part a reaction to over-confidence in rapidly developing regions that often have poorly regulated markets. "A number of Asian markets, notably China, which bounced back surprisingly quickly last year thanks in no small measure to government stimulus packages, have seen the introduction of government measures to dampen growth rates regarded as potentially harmful to the wider economy," says Mr Hawkins.

Estate agents say that the ongoing financial crisis gives buyers more power to negotiate prices in many markets.

However, where the vendor is under no pressure to sell, then the gap between buyer and seller expectations may not be bridged.

And the flurry of forced sales expected by some market watchers has so far failed to materialise in prime residential locations.

But the more destructive effects of the financial crisis on the international commercial property markets are yielding attractive opportunities for wealthier private investors. According to Hans Vrensen, global head of research at global property adviser DTZ, opportunities arise when loan repayments on commercial properties fall due and the owners find themselves holding negative equity - property assets worth less than the cash loaned against them.

This is taking place as banks seek to reduce their exposure to commercial property. Some ex-bankers, however, have become fund managers who are largely focused on this opportunity.

Private "angel" investors with no current exposure to the recently over-heated European property market are well positioned to emerge with the whip hand if they can invest in buildings with original owners who want to avoid what property agents call a "full cash trap" - holding an asset that only maintains itself with no net profit.

"Some Middle Eastern investors will find some opportunities where banks are looking for new equity injection," says Mr Vrensen.

Although some US office markets are faring well, commercial property loan agreements there typically run for 10 years, much longer than is generally the case in Europe. This means that US developers and property owners are less likely to find themselves in negative equity, as 10 years more closely mirrors the cycle in property values and market fluctuations tend to correct themselves within a decade.

As always, with any property investment, the trick with commercial property is to invest in the right location at the right time.

According to DTZ, Warsaw, London's west end and Madrid are classified as "hot".

"Markets like Warsaw are looking increasingly attractive.

"The city has emerged from the financial crisis well and the Warsaw office market has been a beneficiary of the robustness of the Polish economy and also the fact that much of the growth has been funded by Germany and Austria," says Mr Vrensen.

But whatever sector or location investors may choose for their money, it is essential that they take a long-term view of markets that may still prove to be volatile in the short term.

pf@thenational.ae