Dollar gains have not kept pace with the positive growth seen in the US data docket in February. Tyrone Siu / Reuters
Dollar gains have not kept pace with the positive growth seen in the US data docket in February. Tyrone Siu / Reuters

US dollar breaks its three-month losing streak



It seems the US Dollar Index has finally found some buying support as we approach the end of February, and it’s been all about the the number three this month.

The index has snapped a three-month losing streak and will close the month in the green for the first time since October. Volatility remained high for the dollar this month – with the index trading in a 3 per cent band. At the time of writing, the per cent gain on the month was roughly 0.3 per cent higher. It’s these later two points that indicate that February’s performance may be a blip in the dollar’s performance.

Despite the elevated volatility, the gains in the greenback have not kept up with the positive growth seen in the US data docket in February. The most recent US payrolls data showed 200,000 new jobs were added in January (comfortably above expectations) while the overall unemployment rate held at 4.1 per cent.

Wage growth continued at 3 per cent; this is in line with expectations and reflects a yearly gain at 2.9 per cent - the highest rate in almost nine years. The better than expected jobs data preceded US inflationary data which showed that core prices increased more than expected on the year (1.8 per cent actual versus 1.7 per cent expected) while prices including food and energy increased 0.5 per cent from an expected 0.3 per cent and a previous reading of 0.2 cent.

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Read more from Gaurav Kashyap:

US dollar weakness to continue due to political gridlock

US dollar primed for more drops after disappointing December

Big month for the US dollar

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Remember that inflation figures and payrolls data form the basis of Fed policy; and despite a infinitely better run on both prints, markets remained unimpressed and there was no upward rally in line with improving . Politically, the Trump administration seem to be very content with a weaker dollar (read passive aggressive trade wars). Combine this with the fact the Fed are well and truly in the middle of their rate hiking cycle (with three more expected this year), and market participants will turn their attention towards any European Central Bank and Bank of England action due this year. My dollar bearish bias - a view I have held since the beginning of the fourth quarter last year - remains unchanged going into the end of the first quarter of 2018.

I expect the Dollar Index to test the 200 month exponential moving average at 88.90 levels once more before the end of the first quarter, a break of which could expose the 88 handle that forms the lower boundary of the monthly Ichimoku - the indicator used to predict future market movement.

This dollar bias sentiment would suggest that further upsides are expected in EUR/USD. After a solid run in the past three months, we have seen a bit of retracement in the euro through February. However the Dubai Gold & Commodities Exchange  EUR/USD contract is poised to make another good run towards 1.2540 levels through the early parts of March. I believe opportunities continue to also exist in the Canadian dollar. Last month our target of 1.2350 given on January 22 was filled (the Loonie strengthened to 1.2260 on February 1) before eventually falling back to the current 1.26 levels. Considering the recent move, triggering positions at 1.2650 or above with a downside target at 1.24 would provide immense value through the end of the first quarter.

And finally, with weakness expected in the dollar, long positions at the foot of the current gold selloff may also provide opportunities going forward. Look for a move towards 1306-1310 before considering initiating long positions.

The key data points remaining in February is the US quarterly GDP figure due out on February 28  - it is expected to come in at 2.5 per cent versus its previous 2.6 per cent - and the French GDP reading releasing in Paris on the same date, expected at 0.5 per cent. Then there will be a key run of intense March data which includes the European Central Rate decision on March 8 and the US nonfarm payroll data due out on  March 9.

Gaurav Kashyap is a market strategist at Equiti Global Markets

Skewed figures

In the village of Mevagissey in southwest England the housing stock has doubled in the last century while the number of residents is half the historic high. The village's Neighbourhood Development Plan states that 26% of homes are holiday retreats. Prices are high, averaging around £300,000, £50,000 more than the Cornish average of £250,000. The local average wage is £15,458. 

The specs: 2019 Mercedes-Benz GLE

Price, base / as tested Dh274,000 (estimate)

Engine 3.0-litre inline six-cylinder

Gearbox  Nine-speed automatic

Power 245hp @ 4,200rpm

Torque 500Nm @ 1,600rpm

Fuel economy, combined 6.4L / 100km

At a glance

Global events: Much of the UK’s economic woes were blamed on “increased global uncertainty”, which can be interpreted as the economic impact of the Ukraine war and the uncertainty over Donald Trump’s tariffs.

 

Growth forecasts: Cut for 2025 from 2 per cent to 1 per cent. The OBR watchdog also estimated inflation will average 3.2 per cent this year

 

Welfare: Universal credit health element cut by 50 per cent and frozen for new claimants, building on cuts to the disability and incapacity bill set out earlier this month

 

Spending cuts: Overall day-to day-spending across government cut by £6.1bn in 2029-30 

 

Tax evasion: Steps to crack down on tax evasion to raise “£6.5bn per year” for the public purse

 

Defence: New high-tech weaponry, upgrading HM Naval Base in Portsmouth

 

Housing: Housebuilding to reach its highest in 40 years, with planning reforms helping generate an extra £3.4bn for public finances

Three ways to limit your social media use

Clinical psychologist, Dr Saliha Afridi at The Lighthouse Arabia suggests three easy things you can do every day to cut back on the time you spend online.

1. Put the social media app in a folder on the second or third screen of your phone so it has to remain a conscious decision to open, rather than something your fingers gravitate towards without consideration.

2. Schedule a time to use social media instead of consistently throughout the day. I recommend setting aside certain times of the day or week when you upload pictures or share information. 

3. Take a mental snapshot rather than a photo on your phone. Instead of sharing it with your social world, try to absorb the moment, connect with your feeling, experience the moment with all five of your senses. You will have a memory of that moment more vividly and for far longer than if you take a picture of it.

Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

Election pledges on migration

CDU: "Now is the time to control the German borders and enforce strict border rejections" 

SPD: "Border closures and blanket rejections at internal borders contradict the spirit of a common area of freedom" 

The Sand Castle

Director: Matty Brown

Stars: Nadine Labaki, Ziad Bakri, Zain Al Rafeea, Riman Al Rafeea

Rating: 2.5/5

What is cyberbullying?

Cyberbullying or online bullying could take many forms such as sending unkind or rude messages to someone, socially isolating people from groups, sharing embarrassing pictures of them, or spreading rumors about them.

Cyberbullying can take place on various platforms such as messages, on social media, on group chats, or games.

Parents should watch out for behavioural changes in their children.

When children are being bullied they they may be feel embarrassed and isolated, so parents should watch out for signs of signs of depression and anxiety

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