GCC international sovereign debt issuance is forecast to decline by 16.5 per cent this year from last year’s record sales as fiscal deficits narrow, but higher interest rates in the US and oil price gyrations could affect the outlook, Moody’s rating agency said on Tuesday.
Sovereign debt issuance is projected to decline to US$32.5 billion this year from $38.9bn last year because aggregate fiscal deficit will narrow to 6.4 per cent of GDP from 8.9 per cent of GDP, said Mathias Angonin, a sovereign analyst at Moody’s.
The $32.5bn figure will represent 21 per cent of aggregate gross financing requirements for this year.
“Reliance on Eurobonds for deficit financing will increase going forward because the governments want to prevent any squeeze in private sector credit growth. If they do issue domestically, that could have a negative impact on domestic liquidity,” said Mr Angonin. “Domestic issuance will continue, but it will constitute a lower proportion of the overall funding mix for fiscal deficits.”
Strong investor global demand, low global interest rates and recovering oil prices bolstered issuance last year, with Saudi Arabia’s $17.5bn sale in October the biggest ever for an emerging market nation.
The kingdom is expected to be the biggest issuer this year, with $12.5bn worth of bond sales.
Kuwait, which issued this week an $8bn international bond, and Qatar will be the most dependent on Eurobond issuances for funding this year.
Mr Angonin expects sukuk issuances in the future from GCC sovereigns, which sold mostly conventional bonds last year.
US interest rates will have a direct impact on sovereign issuances since all Gulf countries except Kuwait peg their currencies to the dollar.
“For the moment, the impact [of US interest rates] was really mild,” said Mr Angonin. “Going down the road, it will mean lower liquidity accessibility to the private sector or higher borrowing costs for private sector but also for the governments.” He said this could weaken the debt affordability for GCC sovereigns, especially those most indebted – Bahrain and Qatar.
S&P Global Ratings said last month that Mena sovereign borrowing is set to decline by 20 per cent to $136bn following record debt issuances of $170bn last year.
With regards to financial institutions, they are expected to have stable issuances for bonds, with the UAE playing a prominent role in the field of capital-boosting bonds to comply with Basel III banking standards.
“I think in the UAE, the implementation of Basel III new rules, which increased the requirement for core capital and the Tier 1 in general, will lead to some new issuances but in other countries where credit growth will be relatively low such as Saudi Arabia or Bahrain we don’t expect a lot of issuances,” said Olivier Panis, a banking analyst at Moody’s.
GCC banks as a whole will experience credit growth of about 6 per cent, a similar level to last year’s and profitability is expected to remain stable.
“Compared to last year, we think that the stability [in net profit] will come from net interest margins that remain relatively stable,” Mr Panis said.
He said the cost of funding pressure last year will moderate this year and at the same time interest rate increases in the US will have a direct impact in the region since the currencies are pegged. “Therefore we see broadly it will be positive for the margins of the banks,” said Mr Panis.
“That will be moderated by two things – slower credit growth … and remaining pressures on asset quality, which means provisioning costs will likely increase.”
Provisioning costs represent 15 to 30 per cent of pre-provisioning income in the GCC but it is expected to remain below 30 per cent, he said.
dalsaadi@thenational.ae
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Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Squid Game season two
Director: Hwang Dong-hyuk
Stars: Lee Jung-jae, Wi Ha-joon and Lee Byung-hun
Rating: 4.5/5
A timeline of the Historical Dictionary of the Arabic Language
- 2018: Formal work begins
- November 2021: First 17 volumes launched
- November 2022: Additional 19 volumes released
- October 2023: Another 31 volumes released
- November 2024: All 127 volumes completed
Company%20profile
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Business Insights
- Canada and Mexico are significant energy suppliers to the US, providing the majority of oil and natural gas imports
- The introduction of tariffs could hinder the US's clean energy initiatives by raising input costs for materials like nickel
- US domestic suppliers might benefit from higher prices, but overall oil consumption is expected to decrease due to elevated costs
COMPANY PROFILE
Founders: Alhaan Ahmed, Alyina Ahmed and Maximo Tettamanzi
Total funding: Self funded
'Manmarziyaan' (Colour Yellow Productions, Phantom Films)
Director: Anurag Kashyap
Cast: Abhishek Bachchan, Taapsee Pannu, Vicky Kaushal
Rating: 3.5/5
If you go
Where to stay: Courtyard by Marriott Titusville Kennedy Space Centre has unparalleled views of the Indian River. Alligators can be spotted from hotel room balconies, as can several rocket launch sites. The hotel also boasts cool space-themed decor.
When to go: Florida is best experienced during the winter months, from November to May, before the humidity kicks in.
How to get there: Emirates currently flies from Dubai to Orlando five times a week.
Stuck in a job without a pay rise? Here's what to do
Chris Greaves, the managing director of Hays Gulf Region, says those without a pay rise for an extended period must start asking questions – both of themselves and their employer.
“First, are they happy with that or do they want more?” he says. “Job-seeking is a time-consuming, frustrating and long-winded affair so are they prepared to put themselves through that rigmarole? Before they consider that, they must ask their employer what is happening.”
Most employees bring up pay rise queries at their annual performance appraisal and find out what the company has in store for them from a career perspective.
Those with no formal appraisal system, Mr Greaves says, should ask HR or their line manager for an assessment.
“You want to find out how they value your contribution and where your job could go,” he says. “You’ve got to be brave enough to ask some questions and if you don’t like the answers then you have to develop a strategy or change jobs if you are prepared to go through the job-seeking process.”
For those that do reach the salary negotiation with their current employer, Mr Greaves says there is no point in asking for less than 5 per cent.
“However, this can only really have any chance of success if you can identify where you add value to the business (preferably you can put a monetary value on it), or you can point to a sustained contribution above the call of duty or to other achievements you think your employer will value.”
Ticket prices
- Golden circle - Dh995
- Floor Standing - Dh495
- Lower Bowl Platinum - Dh95
- Lower Bowl premium - Dh795
- Lower Bowl Plus - Dh695
- Lower Bowl Standard- Dh595
- Upper Bowl Premium - Dh395
- Upper Bowl standard - Dh295
BIG SPENDERS
Premier League clubs spent £230 million (Dh1.15 billion) on January transfers, the second-highest total for the mid-season window, the Sports Business Group at Deloitte said in a report.
Company%20profile
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Structural%20weaknesses%20facing%20Israel%20economy
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The specs
Engine: Four electric motors, one at each wheel
Power: 579hp
Torque: 859Nm
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Price: From Dh825,900
On sale: Now
RACE CARD
4.30pm: Maiden Dh80,000 1,400m
5pm: Conditions Dh80,000 1,400m
5.30pm: Liwa Oasis Group 3 Dh300,000 1,400m
6pm: The President’s Cup Listed Dh380,000 1,400m
6.30pm: Arabian Triple Crown Group 2 Dh300,000 2,200m
7pm: Wathba Stallions Cup Handicap (30-60) Dh80,000 1,600m
7.30pm: Handicap (40-70) Dh80,000 1,600m.
THE SPECS
Engine: 1.5-litre
Transmission: 6-speed automatic
Power: 110 horsepower
Torque: 147Nm
Price: From Dh59,700
On sale: now
The specs
Engine: 1.5-litre 4-cylinder petrol
Power: 154bhp
Torque: 250Nm
Transmission: 7-speed automatic with 8-speed sports option
Price: From Dh79,600
On sale: Now
Email sent to Uber team from chief executive Dara Khosrowshahi
From: Dara
To: Team@
Date: March 25, 2019 at 11:45pm PT
Subj: Accelerating in the Middle East
Five years ago, Uber launched in the Middle East. It was the start of an incredible journey, with millions of riders and drivers finding new ways to move and work in a dynamic region that’s become so important to Uber. Now Pakistan is one of our fastest-growing markets in the world, women are driving with Uber across Saudi Arabia, and we chose Cairo to launch our first Uber Bus product late last year.
Today we are taking the next step in this journey—well, it’s more like a leap, and a big one: in a few minutes, we’ll announce that we’ve agreed to acquire Careem. Importantly, we intend to operate Careem independently, under the leadership of co-founder and current CEO Mudassir Sheikha. I’ve gotten to know both co-founders, Mudassir and Magnus Olsson, and what they have built is truly extraordinary. They are first-class entrepreneurs who share our platform vision and, like us, have launched a wide range of products—from digital payments to food delivery—to serve consumers.
I expect many of you will ask how we arrived at this structure, meaning allowing Careem to maintain an independent brand and operate separately. After careful consideration, we decided that this framework has the advantage of letting us build new products and try new ideas across not one, but two, strong brands, with strong operators within each. Over time, by integrating parts of our networks, we can operate more efficiently, achieve even lower wait times, expand new products like high-capacity vehicles and payments, and quicken the already remarkable pace of innovation in the region.
This acquisition is subject to regulatory approval in various countries, which we don’t expect before Q1 2020. Until then, nothing changes. And since both companies will continue to largely operate separately after the acquisition, very little will change in either teams’ day-to-day operations post-close. Today’s news is a testament to the incredible business our team has worked so hard to build.
It’s a great day for the Middle East, for the region’s thriving tech sector, for Careem, and for Uber.
Uber on,
Dara
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
THE SPECS
2020 Toyota Corolla Hybrid LE
Engine: 1.8 litre combined with 16-volt electric motors
Transmission: Automatic with manual shifting mode
Power: 121hp
Torque: 142Nm
Price: Dh95,900
The Transfiguration
Director: Michael O’Shea
Starring: Eric Ruffin, Chloe Levine
Three stars
How it works
Each player begins with one of the great empires of history, from Julius Caesar's Rome to Ramses of Egypt, spread over Europe and the Middle East.
Round by round, the player expands their empire. The more land they have, the more money they can take from their coffers for each go.
As unruled land and soldiers are acquired, players must feed them. When a player comes up against land held by another army, they can choose to battle for supremacy.
A dice-based battle system is used and players can get the edge on their enemy with by deploying a renowned hero on the battlefield.
Players that lose battles and land will find their coffers dwindle and troops go hungry. The end goal? Global domination of course.
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COMPANY%20PROFILE%20
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Ruwais timeline
1971 Abu Dhabi National Oil Company established
1980 Ruwais Housing Complex built, located 10 kilometres away from industrial plants
1982 120,000 bpd capacity Ruwais refinery complex officially inaugurated by the founder of the UAE Sheikh Zayed
1984 Second phase of Ruwais Housing Complex built. Today the 7,000-unit complex houses some 24,000 people.
1985 The refinery is expanded with the commissioning of a 27,000 b/d hydro cracker complex
2009 Plans announced to build $1.2 billion fertilizer plant in Ruwais, producing urea
2010 Adnoc awards $10bn contracts for expansion of Ruwais refinery, to double capacity from 415,000 bpd
2014 Ruwais 261-outlet shopping mall opens
2014 Production starts at newly expanded Ruwais refinery, providing jet fuel and diesel and allowing the UAE to be self-sufficient for petrol supplies
2014 Etihad Rail begins transportation of sulphur from Shah and Habshan to Ruwais for export
2017 Aldar Academies to operate Adnoc’s schools including in Ruwais from September. Eight schools operate in total within the housing complex.
2018 Adnoc announces plans to invest $3.1 billion on upgrading its Ruwais refinery
2018 NMC Healthcare selected to manage operations of Ruwais Hospital
2018 Adnoc announces new downstream strategy at event in Abu Dhabi on May 13
Source: The National
Company%20Profile
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Chef Nobu's advice for eating sushi
“One mistake people always make is adding extra wasabi. There is no need for this, because it should already be there between the rice and the fish.
“When eating nigiri, you must dip the fish – not the rice – in soy sauce, otherwise the rice will collapse. Also, don’t use too much soy sauce or it will make you thirsty. For sushi rolls, dip a little of the rice-covered roll lightly in soy sauce and eat in one bite.
“Chopsticks are acceptable, but really, I recommend using your fingers for sushi. Do use chopsticks for sashimi, though.
“The ginger should be eaten separately as a palette cleanser and used to clear the mouth when switching between different pieces of fish.”
'C'mon C'mon'
Director:Mike Mills
Stars:Joaquin Phoenix, Gaby Hoffmann, Woody Norman
Rating: 4/5
The Library: A Catalogue of Wonders
Stuart Kells, Counterpoint Press
Kill%20
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Cricket World Cup League 2
UAE results
Lost to Oman by eight runs
Beat Namibia by three wickets
Lost to Oman by 12 runs
Beat Namibia by 43 runs
UAE fixtures
Free admission. All fixtures broadcast live on icc.tv
Tuesday March 15, v PNG at Sharjah Cricket Stadium
Friday March 18, v Nepal at Dubai International Stadium
Saturday March 19, v PNG at Dubai International Stadium
Monday March 21, v Nepal at Dubai International Stadium