Oil producers used to cushy prices of US$110 to $120 a barrel will soon have to brace themselves for leaner times, analysts predict.
Many expect the oil price, boosted in the past two years by the Arab Spring and the West-Iran nuclear stand-off, to undergo a correction by the middle of this year.
Current prices cannot solely be explained by the dynamics of supply and demand, says the International Energy Agency, the developed countries' energy watchdog. Regional national oil companies are preparing for a dip.
Citi foresees oil prices dropping by the end of the decade to between $80 and $90 a barrel.
"Oil demand growth may be topping out much sooner than the market expects," wrote Citi in a research note this month. "The structural bull market of the previous decade was a result of surging global oil demand and consistently disappointing non-Opec supply growth, compounded by a collapse in Iraqi and Venezuelan production. The outlook for each of these factors has now reversed."
Citi's bearish outlookcan be put down to three phenomena - gas, gas and more gas.
A burst of natural gas from previously untappable shale formations in the United States has pushed down prices in North America and made it economical to replace coal and even oil with the cleaner fuel.
As environmental policies gain teeth there and in the rest of the world, natural gas will get a long-term boost. Among clean energies, it competes with nuclear, which faces public acceptance difficulties and high upfront cost issues, and renewables, which have similar installation cost hurdles.
Advances in fuel efficiency for new cars of 2.5 per cent a year will help to further cut demand for oil, says Citi.
In the industrial sector, gas-derived ethane can replace oil-based naptha in petrochemical production, says Citi. These factors, together with increases in global oil supply coming from Iraq and non-Opec producers, will help to bring together the prices of oil and natural gas, which even at Asian spot liquefied natural gas prices of $17 per million British thermal units still trades at a substantial discount to crude. But do not expect to see the beginning of the end of oil yet.
In its latest forecast, ExxonMobil warns of the transformative nature of technology and how hard it can be to see the ground shifting.
The shale gas revolution, as those in the industry love to call it, was made possible by the development of hydraulic fracturing technology, and quickly made expensive gas import terminals on the US coastline redundant.
The same technology is helping to unlock more oil from American fields. ExxonMobil expects oil to retain the lead in the world energy mix through to 2040. Natural gas will overtake coal as the second-top source, while nuclear and renewables will continue to expand.
That will be made possible by rapid growth in energy demand and, in particular, electricity demand.
Developing countries are forecast to need 150 per cent more electricity in 2040 than today; overall, the world is expected to require 85 per cent more.
Overall energy demand in developing countries will rise by 65 per cent in that time, according to ExxonMobil, while global energy demand will increase by 35 per cent. Growing trade in East Asia will boost transport fuel demand.
The increasing need for fuel is driven by growing prosperity and a forecast jump in the world's population from 7 billion to 9 billion, with the growth concentrated in Africa and India.
"Evolving demand and supply patterns will open the door for increased global trade opportunities," ExxonMobil wrote in its annual prediction.
"Around 2030, the nations of North America will likely transition from a net importer to a net exporter of oil and oil-based products. The changing energy landscape and the resulting trade opportunities it affords will continue to provide consumers with more choices, more value, more wealth and more good jobs."
Super Saturday results
4pm: Mahab Al Shimaal Group 3 | US$350,000 | (Dirt) | 1,200m
Winner: Drafted, Pat Dobbs (jockey), Doug Watson (trainer).
4.35pm: Al Bastakiya Listed | $300,000 | (D) | 1,900m
Winner: Divine Image, Brett Doyle, Charlie Appleby.
5.10pm: Nad Al Sheba Turf Group 3 | $350,000 | (Turf) | 1,200m
Winner: Blue Point, William Buick, Charlie Appleby.
5.45pm: Burj Nahaar Group 3 | $350,000 | (D) | 1,600m
Winner: Muntazah, Jim Crowley, Doug Watson.
6.20pm: Dubai City of Gold Group 2 | $300,000 | (T) | 2,410m
Winner: Old Persian, William Buick, Charlie Appleby.
6.55pm: Al Maktoum Challenge Round 3 Group 1 | $600,000 | (D) | 2,000m
Winner: Capezzano, Mickael Barzalona, Salem bin Ghadayer.
7.30pm: Jebel Hatta Group 1 | $400,000 | (T) | 1,800m
Winner: Dream Castle, Christophe Soumillon, Saeed bin Suroor.
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League semi-final, first leg
Tottenham 0-1 Ajax, Tuesday
Second leg
Ajax v Tottenham, Wednesday, May 8, 11pm
Game is on BeIN Sports
Aggro%20Dr1ft
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Company%20profile
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The specs
Engine: 6.2-litre V8
Transmission: seven-speed auto
Power: 420 bhp
Torque: 624Nm
Price: from Dh293,200
On sale: now
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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COMPANY%20PROFILE
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Israel Palestine on Swedish TV 1958-1989
Director: Goran Hugo Olsson
Rating: 5/5
Confirmed%20bouts%20(more%20to%20be%20added)
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ALL THE RESULTS
Bantamweight
Siyovush Gulmomdov (TJK) bt Rey Nacionales (PHI) by decision.
Lightweight
Alexandru Chitoran (ROU) bt Hussein Fakhir Abed (SYR) by submission.
Catch 74kg
Omar Hussein (JOR) bt Tohir Zhuraev (TJK) by decision.
Strawweight (Female)
Seo Ye-dam (KOR) bt Weronika Zygmunt (POL) by decision.
Featherweight
Kaan Ofli (TUR) bt Walid Laidi (ALG) by TKO.
Lightweight
Abdulla Al Bousheiri (KUW) bt Leandro Martins (BRA) by TKO.
Welterweight
Ahmad Labban (LEB) bt Sofiane Benchohra (ALG) by TKO.
Bantamweight
Jaures Dea (CAM) v Nawras Abzakh (JOR) no contest.
Lightweight
Mohammed Yahya (UAE) bt Glen Ranillo (PHI) by TKO round 1.
Lightweight
Alan Omer (GER) bt Aidan Aguilera (AUS) by TKO round 1.
Welterweight
Mounir Lazzez (TUN) bt Sasha Palatkinov (HKG) by TKO round 1.
Featherweight title bout
Romando Dy (PHI) v Lee Do-gyeom (KOR) by KO round 1.
Company profile
Name: Back to Games and Boardgame Space
Started: Back to Games (2015); Boardgame Space (Mark Azzam became co-founder in 2017)
Founder: Back to Games (Mr Azzam); Boardgame Space (Mr Azzam and Feras Al Bastaki)
Based: Dubai and Abu Dhabi
Industry: Back to Games (retail); Boardgame Space (wholesale and distribution)
Funding: Back to Games: self-funded by Mr Azzam with Dh1.3 million; Mr Azzam invested Dh250,000 in Boardgame Space
Growth: Back to Games: from 300 products in 2015 to 7,000 in 2019; Boardgame Space: from 34 games in 2017 to 3,500 in 2019
The biog:
Languages: Arabic, Farsi, Hindi, basic Russian
Favourite food: Pizza
Best food on the road: rice
Favourite colour: silver
Favourite bike: Gold Wing, Honda
Favourite biking destination: Canada
Left Bank: Art, Passion and Rebirth of Paris 1940-1950
Agnes Poirer, Bloomsbury
ESSENTIALS
The flights
Fly Etihad or Emirates from the UAE to Moscow from 2,763 return per person return including taxes.
Where to stay
Trips on the Golden Eagle Trans-Siberian cost from US$16,995 (Dh62,414) per person, based on two sharing.
Company%20Profile
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The Perfect Couple
Starring: Nicole Kidman, Liev Schreiber, Jack Reynor
Creator: Jenna Lamia
Rating: 3/5
Scores
Oman 109-3 in 18.4 overs (Aqib Ilyas 45 not out, Aamir Kaleem 27) beat UAE 108-9 in 20 overs (Usman 27, Mustafa 24, Fayyaz 3-16, Bilal 3-23)
The past Palme d'Or winners
2018 Shoplifters, Hirokazu Kore-eda
2017 The Square, Ruben Ostlund
2016 I, Daniel Blake, Ken Loach
2015 Dheepan, Jacques Audiard
2014 Winter Sleep (Kış Uykusu), Nuri Bilge Ceylan
2013 Blue is the Warmest Colour (La Vie d'Adèle: Chapitres 1 et 2), Abdellatif Kechiche, Adele Exarchopoulos and Lea Seydoux
2012 Amour, Michael Haneke
2011 The Tree of Life, Terrence Malick
2010 Uncle Boonmee Who Can Recall His Past Lives (Lung Bunmi Raluek Chat), Apichatpong Weerasethakul
2009 The White Ribbon (Eine deutsche Kindergeschichte), Michael Haneke
2008 The Class (Entre les murs), Laurent Cantet
How to protect yourself when air quality drops
Install an air filter in your home.
Close your windows and turn on the AC.
Shower or bath after being outside.
Wear a face mask.
Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.
If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.
UPI facts
More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions
How to help
Send “thenational” to the following numbers or call the hotline on: 0502955999
2289 – Dh10
2252 – Dh 50
6025 – Dh20
6027 – Dh 100
6026 – Dh 200
RESULT
Manchester United 1 Brighton and Hove Albion 0
Man United: Dunk (66' og)
Man of the Match: Shane Duffy (Brighton)
