Just a few days before OPEC ministers gather in Quito, Ecuador, for their final meeting of the year, crude is again hovering near US$90 per barrel. Could this be a replay of the last quarter of 2007, when crude rose 19 per cent in three months from about $80 in early October to more than $95 by the end of the year?
So far, the trading pattern looks similar.
Three years ago, crude rallied strongly at the start of a bitterly cold northern hemisphere winter, as it is doing today. The only difference - which may or may not be a major one - is that it had already climbed from about $55 at the beginning of 2007, as OPEC spare capacity shrank. This year, crude has risen from about $80 per barrel two months ago, but has only recently strayed from a price band of $70 to $80 for any length of time.
There are other similarities besides the weather between the oil market of late 2007 and today. Then, as now, the physical market was not undersupplied with crude, yet prices were heading higher. That was at least partly because large oil consumers fretted that oil was becoming harder to find and more expensive to produce, and that in an expanding world economy, shortages were inevitable sooner or later.
Based on those expectations, and on US dollar weakness as the sub-prime mortgage fiasco began to undermine the nation's banking sector, investors piled into commodities, especially oil.
According to OPEC, such "paper investors", who bought and sold crude futures contracts without planning to take possession of physical oil supplies, were unwelcome speculators. The oil exporters' organisation blamed "market speculation" for crude's run-up to a record $147 per barrel in July 2008, and its subsequent five-month slide to below $34.
Oil-price volatility was bad for both producers and consumers, OPEC proclaimed. The organisation announced its major task was to stabilise the market by keeping the world adequately and reliably supplied with crude. In December 2008, the group pledged to remove a record 4.2 million barrels per day of output, or about 5 per cent of world oil supplies, from the market to stabilise prices.
Fast forward to the present, and it is remarkable how little has changed since the 2007 prelude to that period of record price volatility.
On Sunday Sir Richard Branson, the British businessman, predicted that crude would hit $200 per barrel, sparking unprecedented economic upheaval and mass unemployment. His projection was reminiscent of similar price forecasts in the first half of 2008 from the likes of Arjun Murti, the prominent Goldman Sachs analyst, and Alexei Miller, the chief executive of Gazprom in Russia.
Most notable among those recently reprising the 2007-2008 oil-consumer mantra, "the age of cheap oil is over", is Fatih Birol, the chief economist of the International Energy Agency. But others have sung similar refrains, including Barack Obama, the US president.
Another parallel with the situation in 2007-2008 is the re-emergence of international concerns about rising food prices and the extent to which higher fuel, fertiliser and transportation costs - not to mention competition between food and biofuel crops for arable land - are implicated in this escalation.
In his recently published book The Coming Famine, the Australian agricultural expert Julian Cribb warns of lower crop yields as farmers seek to cut their input costs.
On Monday, none other than the OPEC Fund for International Development announced a closer partnership with the International Fund for Agricultural Development to promote "innovative financing mechanisms to attract private sector investment in agriculture". The institutions called for "increased investment in agriculture to guarantee food security".
Since the link between energy and food prices seems solid, that development suggests OPEC itself may be worried that crude will continue to rise. This is not a development the group would necessarily welcome because it would increase the risk of another "speculative" oil price bubble forming and eventually bursting. But what can OPEC do to prevent this?
Raising the group's official output target in the absence of oil supply shortage is unlikely. Even a minor quota increase would encourage the less compliant OPEC members to pump crude at will, thereby flooding an already well-supplied oil market and triggering a price collapse sooner rather than later.
Behind closed doors, the energy ministers of Gulf oil states may urge price hawks such as Iran and Venezuela to stop calling publicly for $100 crude in what could become a self-fulfilling prophecy if market speculators pay heed. To bring those countries into line, Saudi Arabia, which now has ample spare capacity, might raise the prospect of a supply increase.
If the OPEC secretariat's market experts fear another bout of price volatility, they might urge closer co-operation with international oil companies in exploiting the world's remaining reserves of relatively "easy" oil.
Whether resource nationalist members such as Algeria and Ecuador, the meeting's host, are in a mood to listen may not become apparent for months or years. But such a strategy could have a long-term calming effect on the international oil market by rationalising the global exploitation of reserves. With more OPEC oil entering the market, the need to tackle "frontier" resources would be deferred, allowing more time for emerging technology to bring down costs.
In the meantime, the official word from Quito is likely to be that OPEC will once more wait and see how far this price rally goes before taking action.
tcarlisle@thenational.ae
The Bio
Favourite place in UAE: Al Rams pearling village
What one book should everyone read: Any book written before electricity was invented. When a writer willingly worked under candlelight, you know he/she had a real passion for their craft
Your favourite type of pearl: All of them. No pearl looks the same and each carries its own unique characteristics, like humans
Best time to swim in the sea: When there is enough light to see beneath the surface
Call of Duty: Black Ops 6
Developer: Treyarch, Raven Software
Publisher: Activision
Console: PlayStation 4 & 5, Windows, Xbox One & Series X/S
Rating: 3.5/5
COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Revibe%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202022%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Hamza%20Iraqui%20and%20Abdessamad%20Ben%20Zakour%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20UAE%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EIndustry%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Refurbished%20electronics%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunds%20raised%20so%20far%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%2410m%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFlat6Labs%2C%20Resonance%20and%20various%20others%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
The Year Earth Changed
Directed by:Tom Beard
Narrated by: Sir David Attenborough
Stars: 4
COMPANY PROFILE
Founders: Alhaan Ahmed, Alyina Ahmed and Maximo Tettamanzi
Total funding: Self funded
Red Sparrow
Dir: Francis Lawrence
Starring: Jennifer Lawrence, Joel Egerton, Charlotte Rampling, Jeremy Irons
Three stars
DUBAI%20BLING%3A%20EPISODE%201
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The Internet
Hive Mind
four stars
Famous left-handers
- Marie Curie
- Jimi Hendrix
- Leonardo Di Vinci
- David Bowie
- Paul McCartney
- Albert Einstein
- Jack the Ripper
- Barack Obama
- Helen Keller
- Joan of Arc
Profile
Company name: Jaib
Started: January 2018
Co-founders: Fouad Jeryes and Sinan Taifour
Based: Jordan
Sector: FinTech
Total transactions: over $800,000 since January, 2018
Investors in Jaib's mother company Alpha Apps: Aramex and 500 Startups
If you go
Where to stay: Courtyard by Marriott Titusville Kennedy Space Centre has unparalleled views of the Indian River. Alligators can be spotted from hotel room balconies, as can several rocket launch sites. The hotel also boasts cool space-themed decor.
When to go: Florida is best experienced during the winter months, from November to May, before the humidity kicks in.
How to get there: Emirates currently flies from Dubai to Orlando five times a week.
Disclaimer
Director: Alfonso Cuaron
Stars: Cate Blanchett, Kevin Kline, Lesley Manville
Rating: 4/5
Our family matters legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
UNSC Elections 2022-23
Seats open:
- Two for Africa Group
- One for Asia-Pacific Group (traditionally Arab state or Tunisia)
- One for Latin America and Caribbean Group
- One for Eastern Europe Group
Countries so far running:
Feeding the thousands for iftar
Six industrial scale vats of 500litres each are used to cook the kanji or broth
Each vat contains kanji or porridge to feed 1,000 people
The rice porridge is poured into a 500ml plastic box
350 plastic tubs are placed in one container trolley
Each aluminium container trolley weighing 300kg is unloaded by a small crane fitted on a truck
The five pillars of Islam
1. Fasting
2. Prayer
3. Hajj
4. Shahada
5. Zakat
The specs
Engine: 1.5-litre turbo
Power: 181hp
Torque: 230Nm
Transmission: 6-speed automatic
Starting price: Dh79,000
On sale: Now
10 tips for entry-level job seekers
- Have an up-to-date, professional LinkedIn profile. If you don’t have a LinkedIn account, set one up today. Avoid poor-quality profile pictures with distracting backgrounds. Include a professional summary and begin to grow your network.
- Keep track of the job trends in your sector through the news. Apply for job alerts at your dream organisations and the types of jobs you want – LinkedIn uses AI to share similar relevant jobs based on your selections.
- Double check that you’ve highlighted relevant skills on your resume and LinkedIn profile.
- For most entry-level jobs, your resume will first be filtered by an applicant tracking system for keywords. Look closely at the description of the job you are applying for and mirror the language as much as possible (while being honest and accurate about your skills and experience).
- Keep your CV professional and in a simple format – make sure you tailor your cover letter and application to the company and role.
- Go online and look for details on job specifications for your target position. Make a list of skills required and set yourself some learning goals to tick off all the necessary skills one by one.
- Don’t be afraid to reach outside your immediate friends and family to other acquaintances and let them know you are looking for new opportunities.
- Make sure you’ve set your LinkedIn profile to signal that you are “open to opportunities”. Also be sure to use LinkedIn to search for people who are still actively hiring by searching for those that have the headline “I’m hiring” or “We’re hiring” in their profile.
- Prepare for online interviews using mock interview tools. Even before landing interviews, it can be useful to start practising.
- Be professional and patient. Always be professional with whoever you are interacting with throughout your search process, this will be remembered. You need to be patient, dedicated and not give up on your search. Candidates need to make sure they are following up appropriately for roles they have applied.
Arda Atalay, head of Mena private sector at LinkedIn Talent Solutions, Rudy Bier, managing partner of Kinetic Business Solutions and Ben Kinerman Daltrey, co-founder of KinFitz
Ukraine%20exports
%3Cp%3EPresident%20Volodymyr%20Zelenskyy%20has%20overseen%20grain%20being%20loaded%20for%20export%20onto%20a%20Turkish%20ship%20following%20a%20deal%20with%20Russia%20brokered%20by%20the%20UN%20and%20Turkey.%3Cbr%3E%22The%20first%20vessel%2C%20the%20first%20ship%20is%20being%20loaded%20since%20the%20beginning%20of%20the%20war.%20This%20is%20a%20Turkish%20vessel%2C%22%20Zelensky%20said%2C%20adding%20exports%20could%20start%20in%20%22the%20coming%20days%22%20under%20the%20plan%20aimed%20at%20getting%20millions%20of%20tonnes%20of%20Ukrainian%20grain%20stranded%20by%20Russia's%20naval%20blockade%20to%20world%20markets.%3Cbr%3E%22Our%20side%20is%20fully%20prepared%2C%22%20he%20said.%20%22We%20sent%20all%20the%20signals%20to%20our%20partners%20--%20the%20UN%20and%20Turkey%2C%20and%20our%20military%20guarantees%20the%20security%20situation.%22%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Kanguva
Director: Siva
Stars: Suriya, Bobby Deol, Disha Patani, Yogi Babu, Redin Kingsley
UAE Premiership
Results
Dubai Exiles 24-28 Jebel Ali Dragons
Abu Dhabi Harlequins 43-27 Dubai Hurricanes
Final
Abu Dhabi Harlequins v Jebel Ali Dragons, Friday, March 29, 5pm at The Sevens, Dubai
Business Insights
- Canada and Mexico are significant energy suppliers to the US, providing the majority of oil and natural gas imports
- The introduction of tariffs could hinder the US's clean energy initiatives by raising input costs for materials like nickel
- US domestic suppliers might benefit from higher prices, but overall oil consumption is expected to decrease due to elevated costs
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: HyperSpace
Started: 2020
Founders: Alexander Heller, Rama Allen and Desi Gonzalez
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: Entertainment
Number of staff: 210
Investment raised: $75 million from investors including Galaxy Interactive, Riyadh Season, Sega Ventures and Apis Venture Partners
COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Eco%20Way%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20December%202023%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounder%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Ivan%20Kroshnyi%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dubai%2C%20UAE%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EIndustry%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Electric%20vehicles%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Bootstrapped%20with%20undisclosed%20funding.%20Looking%20to%20raise%20funds%20from%20outside%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
