Opec and the US government’s energy forecaster both lowered their forecasts for oil output this year, underscoring the stalling impact that the oil price crash has had on producers.
In its latest monthly report, Opec forecast a sharper contraction in non-Opec oil supply this year of 730,000 barrels per day, expecting it to average 56.4 million bpd.
Meanwhile, the US energy information administration (EIA) said it now expects US production – which plateaued last year – to fall to 8.6 million bpd this year from an average of 9.4 million bpd last year, or 100,000 bpd lower than its previous forecast.
The EIA said US domestic output was 9 million bpd in March, down 90,000 bpd compared with the month before.
Opec warned, however, that there are not yet conclusive signs that the world market is moving back into balance because of weak economic recovery, plus the fact that some US production could be poised to come back quickly if oil prices continue to rise.
The world benchmark Brent crude oil futures hit a low of about US$30 per barrel in January and have since bounced nearly 50 per cent higher on indications that supply is coming down.
Brent was down 55 cents at $44.14 yesterday afternoon UAE time, with the lower world economic growth forecast by the IMF on Tuesday the main factor behind the fall.
US oil output has been declining fairly steadily since it peaked at 9.6 million bpd in summer last year, with the shale oil sector hit particularly hard by the more than 70 per cent drop in oil prices from their mid-2014 highs near $115 per barrel.
The pain for smaller operators, which have been hit by cash flow shortages and a retreat in banks willing to lend to the sector, has been reflected in a sheer drop in the number of oil rigs in operation on the mainland.
But Opec, citing the oil data company Argus Media, noted that “oil and gas producers in Texas [have been] seeking hundreds of drilling permits [since the start of the year] in anticipation of a further recovery in oil prices ... Permit requests could signal that operators are taking advantage of low-cost drilling to build an inventory ahead of an eventual recovery”.
There are many other questions overhanging the market. For example, the biggest importers – the US, China, Japan – all increased imports in recent months, but it remains to be seen if this trend is sustained or has been because of stockpiling by refiners or for strategic storage.
Still, the sustained decline in output has not been confined to the US, and Opec notes Latin America particularly as suffering setbacks.
“There is little doubt that fundamentals improve markedly from June onwards,” said Amrita Sen, a market analyst at Energy Aspects, highlighting the sharp fall in Latin American crude production.
“Even without including weakening Mexican output, total Latin American production fell below 8 million bpd in February and March, for the first time since March 2014,” she noted.
Brazilian and Colombian crude production is also down sharply on last year.
As for Opec itself, the producer group said production by its members was little changed last month at about 32.2 million bpd.
Iran’s higher production – according to unofficial sources – was the main increase last month, while this was offset by declines in the UAE, Libya and Nigeria.
Opec cites both unofficial and official data because of variable reliability. The UAE’s own data is thought to be reliable, however, and it reported a sharp fall-off in February – likely because of heavy maintenance at its main onshore fields – and that production was partially restored last month to 2.9 million bpd. That is still below capacity of 3.15 million bpd.
amcauley@thenational.ae
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GRAN%20TURISMO
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The specs
Engine: 77.4kW all-wheel-drive dual motor
Power: 320bhp
Torque: 605Nm
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Price: From Dh219,000
On sale: Now
Company%20Profile
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COMPANY%20PROFILE
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Nayanthara: Beyond The Fairy Tale
Starring: Nayanthara, Vignesh Shivan, Radhika Sarathkumar, Nagarjuna Akkineni
Director: Amith Krishnan
Rating: 3.5/5
THE SPECS
Engine: 6.75-litre twin-turbocharged V12 petrol engine
Power: 420kW
Torque: 780Nm
Transmission: 8-speed automatic
Price: From Dh1,350,00
On sale: Available for preorder now
Meydan race card
6pm Dubai Trophy – Conditions(TB) $100,000 (Turf) 1,200m
6.35Dubai Trophy – Conditions(TB) $100,000 (Turf) 1,200m
1,800m
7.10pm Jumeirah Derby Trial – Conditions (TB) $60,000 (T)
1,800m ,400m
7.45pm Al Rashidiya – Group 2 (TB) $180,000 (T) 1,800m
8.20pm Al Fahidi Fort – Group 2 (TB) $180,000 (T) 1,400m
8.55pm Dubawi Stakes – Group 3 (TB) $150,000 (D) 1,200m
9.30pm Aliyah – Rated Conditions (TB) $80,000 (D) 2,000m
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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Living in...
This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home.
Walls
Louis Tomlinson
3 out of 5 stars
(Syco Music/Arista Records)
COMPANY%20PROFILE%20
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Company%20Profile
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David Haye record
Total fights: 32
Wins: 28
Wins by KO: 26
Losses: 4
The specs
Engine: Dual 180kW and 300kW front and rear motors
Power: 480kW
Torque: 850Nm
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Price: From Dh359,900 ($98,000)
On sale: Now
The specs
Engine: 2.7-litre 4-cylinder Turbomax
Power: 310hp
Torque: 583Nm
Transmission: 8-speed automatic
Price: From Dh192,500
On sale: Now
If you go...
Flying
There is no simple way to get to Punta Arenas from the UAE, with flights from Dubai and Abu Dhabi requiring at least two connections to reach this part of Patagonia. Flights start from about Dh6,250.
Touring
Chile Nativo offers the amended Los Dientes trek with expert guides and porters who are met in Puerto Williams on Isla Navarino. The trip starts and ends in Punta Arenas and lasts for six days in total. Prices start from Dh8,795.
War
Director: Siddharth Anand
Cast: Hrithik Roshan, Tiger Shroff, Ashutosh Rana, Vaani Kapoor
Rating: Two out of five stars
SPECS
Engine: 4-litre V8 twin-turbo
Power: 630hp
Torque: 850Nm
Transmission: 8-speed Tiptronic automatic
Price: From Dh599,000
On sale: Now
Review: Tomb Raider
Dir: Roar Uthaug
Starring: Alicia Vikander, Dominic West, Daniel Wu, Walter Goggins
two stars
Company%20Profile
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Company%20profile
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Business Insights
- As per the document, there are six filing options, including choosing to report on a realisation basis and transitional rules for pre-tax period gains or losses.
- SMEs with revenue below Dh3 million per annum can opt for transitional relief until 2026, treating them as having no taxable income.
- Larger entities have specific provisions for asset and liability movements, business restructuring, and handling foreign permanent establishments.
Company%20profile
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SPECS
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The biog
Name: Dhabia Khalifa AlQubaisi
Age: 23
How she spends spare time: Playing with cats at the clinic and feeding them
Inspiration: My father. He’s a hard working man who has been through a lot to provide us with everything we need
Favourite book: Attitude, emotions and the psychology of cats by Dr Nicholes Dodman
Favourit film: 101 Dalmatians - it remind me of my childhood and began my love of dogs
Word of advice: By being patient, good things will come and by staying positive you’ll have the will to continue to love what you're doing
The specs
Engine: 1.5-litre 4-cylinder petrol
Power: 154bhp
Torque: 250Nm
Transmission: 7-speed automatic with 8-speed sports option
Price: From Dh79,600
On sale: Now
THE DETAILS
Solo: A Star Wars Story
Dir: Ron Howard
Starring: Alden Ehrenreich, Emilia Clarke, Woody Harrelson
3/5
Countdown to Zero exhibition will show how disease can be beaten
Countdown to Zero: Defeating Disease, an international multimedia exhibition created by the American Museum of National History in collaboration with The Carter Center, will open in Abu Dhabi a month before Reaching the Last Mile.
Opening on October 15 and running until November 15, the free exhibition opens at The Galleria mall on Al Maryah Island, and has already been seen at the Jimmy Carter Presidential Library and Museum in Atlanta, the American Museum of Natural History in New York, and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine.
How to protect yourself when air quality drops
Install an air filter in your home.
Close your windows and turn on the AC.
Shower or bath after being outside.
Wear a face mask.
Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.
If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.
Visa changes give families fresh hope
Foreign workers can sponsor family members based solely on their income
Male residents employed in the UAE can sponsor immediate family members, such as wife and children, subject to conditions that include a minimum salary of Dh 4,000 or Dh 3,000 plus accommodation.
Attested original marriage certificate, birth certificate of the child, ejari or rental contract, labour contract, salary certificate must be submitted to the government authorised typing centre to complete the sponsorship process
In Abu Dhabi, a woman can sponsor her husband and children if she holds a residence permit stating she is an engineer, teacher, doctor, nurse or any profession related to the medical sector and her monthly salary is at least Dh 10,000 or Dh 8,000 plus accommodation.
In Dubai, if a woman is not employed in the above categories she can get approval to sponsor her family if her monthly salary is more than Dh 10,000 and with a special permission from the Department of Naturalization and Residency Dubai.
To sponsor parents, a worker should earn Dh20,000 or Dh19,000 a month, plus a two-bedroom accommodation
SPEC%20SHEET%3A%20APPLE%20IPHONE%2015%20PRO%20MAX
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Disclaimer
Director: Alfonso Cuaron
Stars: Cate Blanchett, Kevin Kline, Lesley Manville
Rating: 4/5
Sam Smith
Where: du Arena, Abu Dhabi
When: Saturday November 24
Rating: 4/5