After years of spiralling property prices, activity in central London – the most popular overseas property market for UAE buyers – will slow to a grinding halt next year.
Experts predict that a combination of factors will come together in 2015 to subdue what has been one of the world’s best performing and most attractive housing sectors for the past five years.
"The growth for the last five years has been phenomenal but in the end you just can't expect the market to keep on climbing like that," Yolande Barnes, director of world research at Savills, told The National.
The news could have a major effect on Middle Eastern investors who have been steadily buying up prime London real estate in droves. Savills reports that between 2010 and 2012 Middle Eastern investors accounted for 6 per cent of foreign investment in new London homes – a number which has risen to 26 per cent between 2013 and the first half of this year.
So why are London prices set to slow down?
Firstly researchers say the uncertainty surrounding the planned general election in May is likely to dissuade potential homebuyers from making the decision to buy as they wait to see who wins.
“The reason we think the crunch will come next year is because of all the uncertainties surrounding the election, which is being used as a good excuse to pare down buying activity,” Ms Barnes says.
Savills predicts that although average prices across the UK will increase 2 per cent next year, and all of the regions outside London will experience slight increases of between 1 and 3.5 per cent, prices in the UK capital will be static next year.
And with two of the three main parties, the Liberal Democrats and the Labour Party, espousing a so-called “mansion tax” that would create an annual levy on the most expensive properties in the country if introduced, analysts predict that house prices for London’s most desirable locations – usually the ones which most appeal to GCC investors – will be the most affected.
For prime London property the outlook is poor. Savills predicts that even without the introduction of a mansion tax, average prime house prices will fall 0.5 per cent in 2015. And if a full mansion tax is introduced the agent estimates that average prime prices will plunge by 5 per cent, with those worth more than £10 million (Dh57.9m) experiencing the biggest falls with a 10 per cent drop in value.
“To some extent the mansion tax has already stopped investment in UK property,” Ms Barnes says. “We have seen a definite slowdown in the country house market for price bands between £2m and £4m, which was not the market the tax was aimed at.”
Savills estimates that there are about 97,000 homes worth more than £2m in the UK, of which approximately 40,000 are worth between £2m and £3m, and a further 30,000 between £3m to £5m. To achieve a proposed £1.2 billion target – and allowing for tax leakage from stamp duty and inheritance tax as values fall – the charge for homes worth between £3m to £5m could be in the order of £7,000 a year, rising to £125,000 for the estimated 1,500 properties worth more than £20m.
Aside from the thorny issue of next year’s election, researchers add that next year there is likely to be a perfect storm of interest rate rises and an increase in the value of sterling putting off potential investors, domestic and foreign. Other commentators point to the fact that London’s success from capitalising on its “safe haven” status during the global financial crisis is coming to an end as other more risky (and potentially more rewarding) locations regain appeal.
“The positive run began in November 2010, the same month Ireland became the second European country after Greece to receive a bailout as concerns grew over the future of the euro zone,” says Tom Bill, the head of London residential research at Knight Frank. “Ireland has since left its bailout programme and the economic risks that drove buyers into the safety of London property have been superseded by political risks that have created a mood of caution. As a result there is growing evidence that asking prices are having to adjust to more subdued market conditions,” he says.
Knight Frank has reported a rise in the number of Middle Eastern investors starting to look elsewhere in Europe for prime investment opportunities. They say key cities benefiting from an increase in attention include Paris, Florence, Rome, Venice, Geneva and Barcelona.
“The trend is driven by buyers who would have previously considered property options in London but are now looking to spread their risk across Europe as London, in their terms, has become overheated,” says Alasdair Pritchard, an associate in Knight Frank’s international team.
“The reason for people choosing these specific cities is that they are viewed as international cached locations that’ll predominantly hold their value,” Mr Pritchard adds.
“In the case of Middle Eastern buyers who like to preserve their wealth within bricks and mortar, this view is prevalent. These city markets are certainly seeing more of the action than their respective surrounding rural markets. Turnkey apartments are attracting the most interest, especially those that will offer a solid rental return, whether annually or during the holiday season.”
Others suggest that Middle Eastern buyers looking for high returns should look at lower value, higher-yielding property in London and the UK.
“There are still opportunities for Gulf investors in the UK,” says Savills’ Ms Barnes. “We expect there to still be potential in the secondary market with rental increases making up for whatever might be lost in future capital growth.
“London is still experiencing a huge shortage in demand for housing so if you start to look at more affordable properties in areas like Upton, West Ham and beyond you can find yields of around 7 per cent.”
Yet for others the predicted slowdown next year is just a flash in the pan in a longer term continuous trend of growing prices.
Although Savills predicts that prices for prime central property will fall by an average of 0.5 per cent next year without a mansion tax and by about 5 per cent if one is introduced, it believes that over the next four years prime London property prices will rise by more than 20 per cent.
“The Middle Eastern investors we deal with want to be in London; they understand London and they want to be there for the long term,” says David Godchaux, the chief executive of Dubai-based Core Real Estate. “A lot of our investors have been buying in London for many years and we expect them to continue to do so. Often they have family there or children at university.
“Yes, there could be a bit of a slowdown next year, that is only to be expected, but we certainly do not expect Middle Eastern investors to sell up as a result or even to stop buying in the long term.”
lbarnard@thenational.ae
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Israel Palestine on Swedish TV 1958-1989
Director: Goran Hugo Olsson
Rating: 5/5
Bridgerton%20season%20three%20-%20part%20one
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Engine: 3.5-litre V6
Transmission: eight-speed automatic
Power: 290hp
Torque: 340Nm
Price: Dh155,800
On sale: now
How to protect yourself when air quality drops
Install an air filter in your home.
Close your windows and turn on the AC.
Shower or bath after being outside.
Wear a face mask.
Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.
If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.
The specs
Engine: 3.5-litre twin-turbo V6
Power: 380hp at 5,800rpm
Torque: 530Nm at 1,300-4,500rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Price: From Dh299,000 ($81,415)
On sale: Now
BEETLEJUICE BEETLEJUICE
Starring: Winona Ryder, Michael Keaton, Jenny Ortega
Director: Tim Burton
Rating: 3/5
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Name: Dr Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
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Text the following numbers:
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Asia Cup 2018 Qualifier
Sunday's results:
- UAE beat Malaysia by eight wickets
- Nepal beat Singapore by four wickets
- Oman v Hong Kong, no result
Tuesday fixtures:
- Malaysia v Singapore
- UAE v Oman
- Nepal v Hong Kong
Company%20Profile
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Greatest of All Time
Starring: Vijay, Sneha, Prashanth, Prabhu Deva, Mohan
The bio
Favourite book: The Alchemist by Paulo Coelho
Favourite travel destination: Maldives and south of France
Favourite pastime: Family and friends, meditation, discovering new cuisines
Favourite Movie: Joker (2019). I didn’t like it while I was watching it but then afterwards I loved it. I loved the psychology behind it.
Favourite Author: My father for sure
Favourite Artist: Damien Hurst
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F1 drivers' standings
1. Lewis Hamilton, Mercedes 281
2. Sebastian Vettel, Ferrari 247
3. Valtteri Bottas, Mercedes 222
4. Daniel Ricciardo, Red Bull 177
5. Kimi Raikkonen, Ferrari 138
6. Max Verstappen, Red Bull 93
7. Sergio Perez, Force India 86
8. Esteban Ocon, Force India 56
The%20Specs
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COMPANY%20PROFILE%20
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Essentials
The flights
Emirates, Etihad and Malaysia Airlines all fly direct from the UAE to Kuala Lumpur and on to Penang from about Dh2,300 return, including taxes.
Where to stay
In Kuala Lumpur, Element is a recently opened, futuristic hotel high up in a Norman Foster-designed skyscraper. Rooms cost from Dh400 per night, including taxes. Hotel Stripes, also in KL, is a great value design hotel, with an infinity rooftop pool. Rooms cost from Dh310, including taxes.
In Penang, Ren i Tang is a boutique b&b in what was once an ancient Chinese Medicine Hall in the centre of Little India. Rooms cost from Dh220, including taxes.
23 Love Lane in Penang is a luxury boutique heritage hotel in a converted mansion, with private tropical gardens. Rooms cost from Dh400, including taxes.
In Langkawi, Temple Tree is a unique architectural villa hotel consisting of antique houses from all across Malaysia. Rooms cost from Dh350, including taxes.
Racecard
7pm: Abu Dhabi - Conditions (PA) Dh 80,000 (Dirt) 1,600m
7.30pm: Dubai - Maiden (TB) Dh82,500 (D) 1,400m
8pm: Sharjah - Maiden (TB) Dh82,500 (D) 1,600m
8.30pm: Ajman - Handicap (TB) Dh82,500 (D) 2,200m
9pm: Umm Al Quwain - The Entisar - Listed (TB) Dh132,500 (D) 2,000m
9.30pm: Ras Al Khaimah - Rated Conditions (TB) Dh95,000 (D) 1,600m
10pm: Fujairah - Handicap (TB) Dh87,500 (D) 1,200m
Results:
Men's wheelchair 800m T34: 1. Walid Ktila (TUN) 1.44.79; 2. Mohammed Al Hammadi (UAE) 1.45.88; 3. Isaac Towers (GBR) 1.46.46.
Company%20Profile
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Kill%20
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Dubai works towards better air quality by 2021
Dubai is on a mission to record good air quality for 90 per cent of the year – up from 86 per cent annually today – by 2021.
The municipality plans to have seven mobile air-monitoring stations by 2020 to capture more accurate data in hourly and daily trends of pollution.
These will be on the Palm Jumeirah, Al Qusais, Muhaisnah, Rashidiyah, Al Wasl, Al Quoz and Dubai Investment Park.
“It will allow real-time responding for emergency cases,” said Khaldoon Al Daraji, first environment safety officer at the municipality.
“We’re in a good position except for the cases that are out of our hands, such as sandstorms.
“Sandstorms are our main concern because the UAE is just a receiver.
“The hotspots are Iran, Saudi Arabia and southern Iraq, but we’re working hard with the region to reduce the cycle of sandstorm generation.”
Mr Al Daraji said monitoring as it stood covered 47 per cent of Dubai.
There are 12 fixed stations in the emirate, but Dubai also receives information from monitors belonging to other entities.
“There are 25 stations in total,” Mr Al Daraji said.
“We added new technology and equipment used for the first time for the detection of heavy metals.
“A hundred parameters can be detected but we want to expand it to make sure that the data captured can allow a baseline study in some areas to ensure they are well positioned.”
The biog
Hometown: Cairo
Age: 37
Favourite TV series: The Handmaid’s Tale, Black Mirror
Favourite anime series: Death Note, One Piece and Hellsing
Favourite book: Designing Brand Identity, Fifth Edition
MATCH INFO
Maratha Arabians 107-8 (10 ovs)
Lyth 21, Lynn 20, McClenaghan 20 no
Qalandars 60-4 (10 ovs)
Malan 32 no, McClenaghan 2-9
Maratha Arabians win by 47 runs
57%20Seconds
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The Perfect Couple
Starring: Nicole Kidman, Liev Schreiber, Jack Reynor
Creator: Jenna Lamia
Rating: 3/5
Company%20Profile
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Company%20Profile
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Dunbar
Edward St Aubyn
Hogarth
Our legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
THE LOWDOWN
Photograph
Rating: 4/5
Produced by: Poetic License Motion Pictures; RSVP Movies
Director: Ritesh Batra
Cast: Nawazuddin Siddiqui, Sanya Malhotra, Farrukh Jaffar, Deepak Chauhan, Vijay Raaz
Our family matters legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
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FIXTURES
Thu Mar 15 – West Indies v Afghanistan, UAE v Scotland
Fri Mar 16 – Ireland v Zimbabwe
Sun Mar 18 – Ireland v Scotland
Mon Mar 19 – West Indies v Zimbabwe
Tue Mar 20 – UAE v Afghanistan
Wed Mar 21 – West Indies v Scotland
Thu Mar 22 – UAE v Zimbabwe
Fri Mar 23 – Ireland v Afghanistan
The top two teams qualify for the World Cup
Classification matches
The top-placed side out of Papua New Guinea, Hong Kong or Nepal will be granted one-day international status. UAE and Scotland have already won ODI status, having qualified for the Super Six.
Thu Mar 15 – Netherlands v Hong Kong, PNG v Nepal
Sat Mar 17 – 7th-8th place playoff, 9th-10th place play-off
UAE tour of the Netherlands
UAE squad: Rohan Mustafa (captain), Shaiman Anwar, Ghulam Shabber, Mohammed Qasim, Rameez Shahzad, Mohammed Usman, Adnan Mufti, Chirag Suri, Ahmed Raza, Imran Haider, Mohammed Naveed, Amjad Javed, Zahoor Khan, Qadeer Ahmed
Fixtures:
Monday, 1st 50-over match
Wednesday, 2nd 50-over match
Thursday, 3rd 50-over match
RECORD%20BREAKER
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Sweet%20Tooth
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More on Quran memorisation:
The%20Genius%20of%20Their%20Age
%3Cp%3EAuthor%3A%20S%20Frederick%20Starr%3Cbr%3EPublisher%3A%20Oxford%20University%20Press%3Cbr%3EPages%3A%20290%3Cbr%3EAvailable%3A%20January%2024%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Our family matters legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EName%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESmartCrowd%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2018%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounder%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESiddiq%20Farid%20and%20Musfique%20Ahmed%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EDubai%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFinTech%20%2F%20PropTech%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInitial%20investment%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E%24650%2C000%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ECurrent%20number%20of%20staff%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2035%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESeries%20A%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EVarious%20institutional%20investors%20and%20notable%20angel%20investors%20(500%20MENA%2C%20Shurooq%2C%20Mada%2C%20Seedstar%2C%20Tricap)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
About Takalam
Date started: early 2020
Founders: Khawla Hammad and Inas Abu Shashieh
Based: Abu Dhabi
Sector: HealthTech and wellness
Number of staff: 4
Funding to date: Bootstrapped
RACE CARD
4.30pm: Maiden Dh80,000 1,400m
5pm: Conditions Dh80,000 1,400m
5.30pm: Liwa Oasis Group 3 Dh300,000 1,400m
6pm: The President’s Cup Listed Dh380,000 1,400m
6.30pm: Arabian Triple Crown Group 2 Dh300,000 2,200m
7pm: Wathba Stallions Cup Handicap (30-60) Dh80,000 1,600m
7.30pm: Handicap (40-70) Dh80,000 1,600m.
MORE ON INTERNATIONAL JUSTICE
Our legal columnist
Name: Yousef Al Bahar
Advocate at Al Bahar & Associate Advocates and Legal Consultants, established in 1994
Education: Mr Al Bahar was born in 1979 and graduated in 2008 from the Judicial Institute. He took after his father, who was one of the first Emirati lawyers
