Property

Investment bank predicts house prices will decline further in UAE

Home prices in the UAE could drop another 25 to 30 per cent, a new report says.

Kevin Brass

March 11, 2011

A new report forecasts further declines in the UAE's property market.

Home prices are likely to drop an average 25 to 30 per cent before bottoming out, concludes a report released yesterday by the investment bank Rasmala. The market will be buffeted by "depopulation risk, deleveraging and heavy pipeline-delivery schedules leading to demand-supply imbalances", said the analysts Saud Massud and Divya Arora.

Rasmala offers a more pessimistic view than some other property analysts, although most agree there will be further declines. Dubai prices in some locations will be "more or less stagnant", while those in the most recent developments will decrease, the property management firm Asteco predicted in a recent report.

But most agree a wave of new construction will continue to put pressure on prices. Jones Lang LaSalle forecasts another 25,000 units will be completed in Dubai this year.

Home prices in the UAE are down 45 to 55 per cent from peak levels, Rasmala said. Prices will eventually drop 70 per cent from peak levels, it added, "implying another 30 per cent potential downside to house prices from current levels".

But Dubai property is a more attractive investment than Abu Dhabi, Rasmala believes.

"In our view, Dubai offers broader available property options at relatively lower price points," the report said.

Although Abu Dhabi does not have the same oversupply issues as Dubai, "in terms of volumes, their demand dynamics almost mirror each other: a low appetite for new housing as financing remains tight and negative equity concerns linger", Rasmala said.

Declining populations in Dubai will exacerbate the situation, Rasmala predicts. Dubai's population will fall by 5 per cent this year, to 1.33 million, down from 1.59 million in 2008, it forecasts.

"We believe the depopulation trend in Dubai is likely given 90 per cent of the population is made up of expats, and more than 40 per cent are directly and indirectly employed by the property and construction sector," Rasmala said.

The report compared the UAE to Hong Kong and Singapore, which saw population declines after economic downturns.

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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
How to protect yourself when air quality drops

Install an air filter in your home.

Close your windows and turn on the AC.

Shower or bath after being outside.

Wear a face mask.

Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.

If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.

What is Genes in Space?

Genes in Space is an annual competition first launched by the UAE Space Agency, The National and Boeing in 2015.

It challenges school pupils to design experiments to be conducted in space and it aims to encourage future talent for the UAE’s fledgling space industry. It is the first of its kind in the UAE and, as well as encouraging talent, it also aims to raise interest and awareness among the general population about space exploration. 

if you go

The flights
The closest international airport to the TMB trail is Geneva (just over an hour’s drive from the French ski town of Chamonix where most people start and end the walk). Direct flights from the UAE to Geneva are available with Etihad and Emirates from about Dh2,790 including taxes.

The trek
The Tour du Mont Blanc takes about 10 to 14 days to complete if walked in its entirety, but by using the services of a tour operator such as Raw Travel, a shorter “highlights” version allows you to complete the best of the route in a week, from Dh6,750 per person. The trails are blocked by snow from about late October to early May. Most people walk in July and August, but be warned that trails are often uncomfortably busy at this time and it can be very hot. The prime months are June and September.

 

 

Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

COMPANY PROFILE
Name: HyperSpace
 
Started: 2020
 
Founders: Alexander Heller, Rama Allen and Desi Gonzalez
 
Based: Dubai, UAE
 
Sector: Entertainment 
 
Number of staff: 210 
 
Investment raised: $75 million from investors including Galaxy Interactive, Riyadh Season, Sega Ventures and Apis Venture Partners
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If you go
Where to stay: Courtyard by Marriott Titusville Kennedy Space Centre has unparalleled views of the Indian River. Alligators can be spotted from hotel room balconies, as can several rocket launch sites. The hotel also boasts cool space-themed decor.

When to go: Florida is best experienced during the winter months, from November to May, before the humidity kicks in.

How to get there: Emirates currently flies from Dubai to Orlando five times a week.