Put away the frisbee and move on to debt



This is what passes for crisis resolution in the new Rome. Yesterday, groups concerned about America's huge public debt hosted a "budgetball" tournament on the Washington mall, the stretch of green where the city's federal offices, museums and monuments are gathered. Budgetball, this column is informed, is a derivative of ultimate Frisbee developed "to build awareness, especially among young people, about the nation's growing financial challenges and the trade-offs involved in solving them". Team sheets were filled from a cadre of university students on one side and government officials and heads of aid groups on the other. The event was sponsored by the Peter G Peterson Foundation, which has been sounding the alarm about America's borrowing binge for years, though sadly to little effect. Unless they demonstrate a level of courage and sacrifice not seen in Washington since the British burned it in 1814, this country's ruling elite are poised to be slammed by a train of debt as they peer between the tracks in search of spare change. That, in essence, is the conclusion of a report making the rounds in Washington about the pedigree and perils of America's record deficits. Authored by Alan Auerbach, an economics professor at the University of California at Berkeley, and William Gale of the Brookings Institution, the study projects federal deficits will average at least US$1 trillion (Dh3.67tn) for the next 10 years. And that's assuming the economy recovers completely from the global crisis and the stimulus packages introduced by Barack Obama, the US president, are allowed to expire in two years. The report estimates the federal debt will account for between 7 and 9 per cent of US GDP for the foreseeable future, its highest level since the Second World War. Such a rate of borrowing may be impossible to sustain, the study suggests, and default on the five-year US treasury bill is a distinct possibility. The authors urge politicians to respond to the country's debt trap with the same resources and alacrity as it would to a national security threat. "Although fiscal policy problems are usually described as medium and long-term issues, the future may be upon us much sooner than previously expected," they wrote. The report lays much of the blame for America's financial woes at the feet of George W Bush, the former president. When Mr Bush assumed office in 2001, the congressional budget office estimated that the government would manage an average annual surplus of more than $800 billion a year from this year to 2012. Thanks to eight years of Bush tax cuts, fiscal extravagance and two costly wars, the US economy is now a ward of creditor governments from Beijing to Riyadh. Through little choice of his own, Mr Obama has continued his predecessor's bank bailout, as well as rescue packages and a huge stimulus programme of his own. The Obama administration seems to appreciate the urgency expressed in the Auerbach/Gale report. This month Ben Bernanke, the Federal Reserve chairman, urged Congress to cut long-term budget deficits to avoid "an unsustainable situation". Last week, Mr Obama met legislators and announced he would revive the "pay-as-you-go" law, which requires that tax cuts or new entitlement programmes be paid for with budget cuts or tax increases. But the so-called "pay-go" law did little to control spending when it was in effect from 1990 to 2002 because Congress routinely made major funding programmes exempt. The Heritage Foundation, a conservative think tank that criticised Bush profligacy long before Mr Obama arrived, called pay-go's revival "a distraction" from the real work of fiscal restraint. Now that America's baby boom generation is shuffling into retirement age only the wholesale reform of major entitlement programmes, starting with the national health and pension fund, can restore the country's economic security. The past two US presidents tried to do just that. Mr Bush made restructuring social security the touchstone of his second term, while Bill Clinton unveiled an ambitious healthcare plan almost immediately after his swearing in. Both men were handed their heads by an unco-operative Congress. It is now Mr Obama's turn in the breach and he has not a moment to lose. Last week, the rating agency Standard & Poor's issued a report with a warning, however oblique, about the precariousness of America's financial position. According to S&P's, several governments in East Asia, which until now have met Washington's borrowing needs with a cheap and reliable credit line, risk debt downgrades due to heavy borrowing associated with their own stimulus and bailout packages. That means the appetite for US treasuries may continue to wane - yields last week reached their highest levels in a year - and America's debt habit will become increasingly costly to support. Enough Frisbee. Enough budgetball. It's time for some chin-level political hardball. sglain@thenational.ae

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From Zero

Artist: Linkin Park

Label: Warner Records

Number of tracks: 11

Rating: 4/5

COMPANY PROFILE

Name: Qyubic
Started: October 2023
Founder: Namrata Raina
Based: Dubai
Sector: E-commerce
Current number of staff: 10
Investment stage: Pre-seed
Initial investment: Undisclosed 

COMPANY%20PROFILE
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Kanguva
Director: Siva
Stars: Suriya, Bobby Deol, Disha Patani, Yogi Babu, Redin Kingsley
Rating: 2/5
 
UPI facts

More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions

COMPANY%20PROFILE
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The specs
Engine: 77.4kW all-wheel-drive dual motor
Power: 320bhp
Torque: 605Nm
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Price: From Dh219,000
On sale: Now
The specs

Engine: 3-litre twin-turbo V6

Power: 400hp

Torque: 475Nm

Transmission: 9-speed automatic

Price: From Dh215,900

On sale: Now

UAE players with central contracts

Rohan Mustafa, Ashfaq Ahmed, Chirag Suri, Rameez Shahzad, Shaiman Anwar, Adnan Mufti, Mohammed Usman, Ghulam Shabbir, Ahmed Raza, Qadeer Ahmed, Amir Hayat, Mohammed Naveed and Imran Haider.

COMPANY PROFILE
Name: HyperSpace
 
Started: 2020
 
Founders: Alexander Heller, Rama Allen and Desi Gonzalez
 
Based: Dubai, UAE
 
Sector: Entertainment 
 
Number of staff: 210 
 
Investment raised: $75 million from investors including Galaxy Interactive, Riyadh Season, Sega Ventures and Apis Venture Partners
How to protect yourself when air quality drops

Install an air filter in your home.

Close your windows and turn on the AC.

Shower or bath after being outside.

Wear a face mask.

Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.

If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.

UAE rugby in numbers

5 - Year sponsorship deal between Hesco and Jebel Ali Dragons

700 - Dubai Hurricanes had more than 700 playing members last season between their mini and youth, men's and women's teams

Dh600,000 - Dubai Exiles' budget for pitch and court hire next season, for their rugby, netball and cricket teams

Dh1.8m - Dubai Hurricanes' overall budget for next season

Dh2.8m - Dubai Exiles’ overall budget for next season

Electoral College Victory

Trump has so far secured 295 Electoral College votes, according to the Associated Press, exceeding the 270 needed to win. Only Nevada and Arizona remain to be called, and both swing states are leaning Republican. Trump swept all five remaining swing states, North Carolina, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, sealing his path to victory and giving him a strong mandate. 

 

Popular Vote Tally

The count is ongoing, but Trump currently leads with nearly 51 per cent of the popular vote to Harris’s 47.6 per cent. Trump has over 72.2 million votes, while Harris trails with approximately 67.4 million.

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The specs
Engine: Long-range single or dual motor with 200kW or 400kW battery
Power: 268bhp / 536bhp
Torque: 343Nm / 686Nm
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Max touring range: 620km / 590km
Price: From Dh250,000 (estimated)
On sale: Later this year
The specs
Engine: 2.7-litre 4-cylinder Turbomax
Power: 310hp
Torque: 583Nm
Transmission: 8-speed automatic
Price: From Dh192,500
On sale: Now
The specs

Engine: 1.5-litre 4-cylinder petrol

Power: 154bhp

Torque: 250Nm

Transmission: 7-speed automatic with 8-speed sports option 

Price: From Dh79,600

On sale: Now

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COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Almnssa
Started: August 2020
Founder: Areej Selmi
Based: Gaza
Sectors: Internet, e-commerce
Investments: Grants/private funding

Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

The specs

Engine: Direct injection 4-cylinder 1.4-litre
Power: 150hp
Torque: 250Nm
Price: From Dh139,000
On sale: Now

The specs

  Engine: 2-litre or 3-litre 4Motion all-wheel-drive Power: 250Nm (2-litre); 340 (3-litre) Torque: 450Nm Transmission: 8-speed automatic Starting price: From Dh212,000 On sale: Now

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