Profits for oil refiners in Europe and the US rose in the past three months after one of the sector's toughest periods in history, but analysts say it is still too early to call a recovery.
A turnaround in the refining sector would be a boost to Gulf countries, which poured tens of billions of dollars into new refinery projects over the past three years only to see operating profits shift to negative at the end of last year.
Since March 20 refiners' profits, which are determined by the difference between the market prices for products such as petrol and the cost of crude oil, have increased by 65 per cent to $9.41 a barrel on the US Gulf coast, according to Bloomberg, and jumped 53 per cent in north-west Europe to $15.31.
But margins remain low compared with the average in recent years, are extremely volatile and likely to decrease again, said Michael Corke, a vice president and refining expert at Purvin and Gertz, the energy consultancy.
"We're still in a situation at the moment where there's not really much pressure in the refining industry," he said. "If anything, margins are likely to settle back a little bit."
The UAE has several refinery projects in the works, including a major expansion to double capacity of the refinery in Ruwais by the end of 2013, a small upgrade this year to a refinery in Jebel Ali, and a proposal to build a new refinery in Fujairah.
Mr Corke said margins were not likely to return to their levels from when these projects were conceived, in part because new refineries in the Gulf and Asia will cause a glut of capacity just as demand for products begins to recover.
"That increase in capacity is going to mean that even if demand recovers, which is what we are predicting, it's not going to cause the strong numbers we saw in 2007 and 2008," he said. "I don't expect to return to the margins we had in 2004-2008 ever, really."
Standard & Poors, the credit rating agency, has retained its "negative" rating on the global refining sector. It said this month that margins were not likely to improve significantly in the next five years.
But analysts expect new refineries to register steady returns in the medium term, in part because the world fuel market is expected to shift from petrol to diesel, which is a more efficient transport fuel.
Although the US and parts of Europe primarily use petrol to fuel their cars, major growth regions including China and India will rely heavily on diesel, experts say. That shift benefits newer, more complex refineries with so-called "hydrocracking" capacity, which turn a higher proportion of a barrel of crude into diesel.
"Projects favouring diesel production are likely to be soundest," Mr Corke said. "We're seeing margins for complex refineries bouncing back. They will see better returns on their investments than the people who focused on gasoline."
Purvin and Gertz predicts net margins in north-west Europe, including capital costs, will be $5 a barrel for hydrocracking refineries compared with $2.20 for refineries with so-called "catalytic cracking", an older technology.
cstanton@thenational.ae
Kanguva
Director: Siva
Stars: Suriya, Bobby Deol, Disha Patani, Yogi Babu, Redin Kingsley
%E2%80%98FSO%20Safer%E2%80%99%20-%20a%20ticking%20bomb
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Electoral College Victory
Trump has so far secured 295 Electoral College votes, according to the Associated Press, exceeding the 270 needed to win. Only Nevada and Arizona remain to be called, and both swing states are leaning Republican. Trump swept all five remaining swing states, North Carolina, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, sealing his path to victory and giving him a strong mandate.
Popular Vote Tally
The count is ongoing, but Trump currently leads with nearly 51 per cent of the popular vote to Harris’s 47.6 per cent. Trump has over 72.2 million votes, while Harris trails with approximately 67.4 million.
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A%20QUIET%20PLACE
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Bundesliga fixtures
Saturday, May 16 (kick-offs UAE time)
Borussia Dortmund v Schalke (4.30pm)
RB Leipzig v Freiburg (4.30pm)
Hoffenheim v Hertha Berlin (4.30pm)
Fortuna Dusseldorf v Paderborn (4.30pm)
Augsburg v Wolfsburg (4.30pm)
Eintracht Frankfurt v Borussia Monchengladbach (7.30pm)
Sunday, May 17
Cologne v Mainz (4.30pm),
Union Berlin v Bayern Munich (7pm)
Monday, May 18
Werder Bremen v Bayer Leverkusen (9.30pm)
How to protect yourself when air quality drops
Install an air filter in your home.
Close your windows and turn on the AC.
Shower or bath after being outside.
Wear a face mask.
Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.
If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.
Company%20Profile
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INDIA SQUADS
India squad for third Test against Sri Lanka
Virat Kohli (capt), Murali Vijay, Lokesh Rahul, Shikhar Dhawan, Cheteshwar Pujara, Ajinkya Rahane, Rohit Sharma, Wriddhiman Saha, Ravichandran Ashwin, Ravindra Jadeja, Kuldeep Yadav, Mohammed Shami, Umesh Yadav, Ishant Sharma, Vijay Shankar
India squad for ODI series against Sri Lanka
Rohit Sharma (capt), Shikhar Dhawan, Ajinkya Rahane, Shreyas Iyer, Manish Pandey, Kedar Jadhav, Dinesh Karthik, Mahendra Singh Dhoni, Hardik Pandya, Axar Patel, Kuldeep Yadav, Yuzvendra Chahal, Jasprit Bumrah, Bhuvneshwar Kumar, Siddarth Kaul
Wicked
Director: Jon M Chu
Stars: Cynthia Erivo, Ariana Grande, Jonathan Bailey
THE SPECS
Engine: 6.75-litre twin-turbocharged V12 petrol engine
Power: 420kW
Torque: 780Nm
Transmission: 8-speed automatic
Price: From Dh1,350,000
On sale: Available for preorder now
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ILT20%20UAE%20stars
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UAE squad
Men's draw: Victor Scvortov and Khalifa Al Hosani, (both 73 kilograms), Sergiu Toma and Mihail Marchitan (90kg), Ivan Remarenco (100kg), Ahmed Al Naqbi (60kg), Musabah Al Shamsi and Ahmed Al Hosani (66kg)
Women’s draw: Maitha Al Neyadi (57kg)
The specs
Engine: 1.5-litre 4-cylinder petrol
Power: 154bhp
Torque: 250Nm
Transmission: 7-speed automatic with 8-speed sports option
Price: From Dh79,600
On sale: Now
How Islam's view of posthumous transplant surgery changed
Transplants from the deceased have been carried out in hospitals across the globe for decades, but in some countries in the Middle East, including the UAE, the practise was banned until relatively recently.
Opinion has been divided as to whether organ donations from a deceased person is permissible in Islam.
The body is viewed as sacred, during and after death, thus prohibiting cremation and tattoos.
One school of thought viewed the removal of organs after death as equally impermissible.
That view has largely changed, and among scholars and indeed many in society, to be seen as permissible to save another life.
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre four-cylinder turbo
Power: 178hp at 5,500rpm
Torque: 280Nm at 1,350-4,200rpm
Transmission: seven-speed dual-clutch auto
Price: from Dh209,000
On sale: now
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Disclaimer
Director: Alfonso Cuaron
Stars: Cate Blanchett, Kevin Kline, Lesley Manville
Rating: 4/5
From Zero
Artist: Linkin Park
Label: Warner Records
Number of tracks: 11
Rating: 4/5
Company%20profile
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Nayanthara: Beyond The Fairy Tale
Starring: Nayanthara, Vignesh Shivan, Radhika Sarathkumar, Nagarjuna Akkineni
Director: Amith Krishnan
Rating: 3.5/5
The specs
Engine: 1.5-litre turbo
Power: 181hp
Torque: 230Nm
Transmission: 6-speed automatic
Starting price: Dh79,000
On sale: Now
The specs
Engine: 3-litre twin-turbo V6
Power: 400hp
Torque: 475Nm
Transmission: 9-speed automatic
Price: From Dh215,900
On sale: Now
The specs
Engine: 77.4kW all-wheel-drive dual motor
Power: 320bhp
Torque: 605Nm
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Price: From Dh219,000
On sale: Now
The specs
Engine: 2.7-litre 4-cylinder Turbomax
Power: 310hp
Torque: 583Nm
Transmission: 8-speed automatic
Price: From Dh192,500
On sale: Now
Your Guide to the Home
- Level 1 has a valet service if you choose not to park in the basement level. This level houses all the kitchenware, including covetable brand French Bull, along with a wide array of outdoor furnishings, lamps and lighting solutions, textiles like curtains, towels, cushions and bedding, and plenty of other home accessories.
- Level 2 features curated inspiration zones and solutions for bedrooms, living rooms and dining spaces. This is also where you’d go to customise your sofas and beds, and pick and choose from more than a dozen mattress options.
- Level 3 features The Home’s “man cave” set-up and a display of industrial and rustic furnishings. This level also has a mother’s room, a play area for children with staff to watch over the kids, furniture for nurseries and children’s rooms, and the store’s design studio.
How to tell if your child is being bullied at school
Sudden change in behaviour or displays higher levels of stress or anxiety
Shows signs of depression or isolation
Ability to sleep well diminishes
Academic performance begins to deteriorate
Changes in eating habits
Struggles to concentrate
Refuses to go to school
Behaviour changes and is aggressive towards siblings
Begins to use language they do not normally use
SPECS
Engine: 4-litre V8 twin-turbo
Power: 630hp
Torque: 850Nm
Transmission: 8-speed Tiptronic automatic
Price: From Dh599,000
On sale: Now
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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Citadel: Honey Bunny first episode
Directors: Raj & DK
Stars: Varun Dhawan, Samantha Ruth Prabhu, Kashvi Majmundar, Kay Kay Menon
Rating: 4/5
The%20specs
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The%20specs
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The biog
Name: Salvador Toriano Jr
Age: 59
From: Laguna, The Philippines
Favourite dish: Seabass or Fish and Chips
Hobbies: When he’s not in the restaurant, he still likes to cook, along with walking and meeting up with friends.
Company%20Profile
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The specs
Engine: Long-range single or dual motor with 200kW or 400kW battery
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Max touring range: 620km / 590km
Price: From Dh250,000 (estimated)
Killing of Qassem Suleimani