Britain’s referendum result on exiting the EU has been met with a flurry of responses from politicians and financial markets. The almost uniform negativity of the responses would, by itself, alarm the average global citizen. But I smell a rat.
I have a simple maxim that has served me well in life – when you want to know who won and who lost, listen for the most negative response. They are the losers.
The financial markets are being driven by the political arena and when there are sharp movements in financial prices it usually means that investors are overreacting, which always presents opportunities.
The current political narrative is that Brexit is a disaster for Britain as the EU will be closed for trade and employment and will also no longer benefit from being part of a large market and political block.
Not only that, but we’re told that Brexit will now trigger the break-up of Britain as Scotland and Northern Ireland secede. But is this the only possible scenario? Could there be other scenarios from which one could profit?
Let us look at the idea that Britain will suffer. Using nominal numbers from last year, Britain has the second highest GDP in the EU after Germany. Its GDP is about 24 per cent larger than that of France, which holds the No 3 position. In terms of per capita GDP, Britain ranks sixth, ahead of Germany, which is ninth, and France, which is 11th.
Britain’s GDP growth rate was 30 per cent greater than Germany’s and nearly double that of France.
As for unemployment, Britain’s rate ranks as third lowest after Germany and the Czech Republic.
What about what Britain has to gain, net, from the EU?
There are a lot of numbers being thrown around, mostly because the gross gain and most of the gross benefit that Britain gives and gets are hard to compute.
One detailed analysis earlier this year by The Telegraph estimates that the net contribution by Britain to the EU is about €11 billion (Dh44.73).
That makes for the argument that in terms of the economy Britain has far less to lose than the EU. Perhaps Britain will lose political clout? Let us take a look.
Britain is arguably the closest ally to the world’s most powerful nation – the United States of America. As part of its close relationship with the US, Britain is part of the Five Eyes, a global alliance that shares intelligence information. With America as the lead member in the Five Eyes and Britain as the only EU member, that is another major loss for the EU in these difficult times.
Let us not forget the Commonwealth, an organisation of 53 countries that gives Britain a tremendous advantage in trade outside the EU, especially with emerging markets.
Britain is also one of only five permanent members of the United Nation’s Security Council, giving it the power to veto major UN resolutions. Finally, Britain’s military is rivalled only by France’s in the EU.
So, the starting point for Britain does not seem to be nearly as weak as the current narrative would have us believe. But what does the future hold? Jean-Claude Juncker, the president of the European Commission, has turned completely hostile and, I would argue, hysterical to Britain and is demanding that it invoke Article 50, which begins the maximum two-year process for Britain to exit.
Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany has been much more balanced. Why the difference?
One reason is that Britain simply does not have to invoke Article 50 unless it wants to.
If Mr Juncker continues to try to bully Britain, it could conceivably stay in the EU negotiating terms and bullying Mr Juncker back by vetoing everything that comes up in the EU parliament.
This leads to the counter threat of the EU invoking Article 7 and suspending some or all of Britain’s rights, but at that point you are effectively killing the EU to get back at Britain.
Germany will not allow it, no matter how much of a tantrum Mr Juncker throws.
What might actually happen? Everyone could keep having a fit for a couple of months, at which point they will probably calm down. Then, either the EU could be “fixed” to satisfy the issues that Britain – and quite frankly many other countries – have with it, or Britain departs and negotiates trade and other mutually beneficial agreements that are similar to what are currently in place.
Is my line of reasoning 100 per cent correct? No, I cannot see into the future.
But I believe that there is enough of an argument to be made that there has been a terrible overreaction. Now to figure out how to monetise it.
Sabah Al Binali is an active investor and entrepreneurial leader with a track record of growing companies in the Mena region. You can read more of his thoughts at al-binali.com.
business@thenational.ae
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'Skin'
Dir: Guy Nattiv
Starring: Jamie Bell, Danielle McDonald, Bill Camp, Vera Farmiga
Rating: 3.5/5 stars
LA LIGA FIXTURES
Friday Celta Vigo v Villarreal (midnight kick-off UAE)
Saturday Sevilla v Real Sociedad (4pm), Atletico Madrid v Athletic Bilbao (7.15pm), Granada v Barcelona (9.30pm), Osasuna v Real Madrid (midnight)
Sunday Levante v Eibar (4pm), Cadiz v Alaves (7.15pm), Elche v Getafe (9.30pm), Real Valladolid v Valencia (midnight)
Monday Huesca v Real Betis (midnight)
'Peninsula'
Stars: Gang Dong-won, Lee Jung-hyun, Lee Ra
Director: Yeon Sang-ho
Rating: 2/5
COMPANY%20PROFILE%20
%3Cp%3EName%3A%20DarDoc%3Cbr%3EBased%3A%20Abu%20Dhabi%3Cbr%3EFounders%3A%20Samer%20Masri%2C%20Keswin%20Suresh%3Cbr%3ESector%3A%20HealthTech%3Cbr%3ETotal%20funding%3A%20%24800%2C000%3Cbr%3EInvestors%3A%20Flat6Labs%2C%20angel%20investors%20%2B%20Incubated%20by%20Hub71%2C%20Abu%20Dhabi's%20Department%20of%20Health%3Cbr%3ENumber%20of%20employees%3A%2010%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
UAE v Gibraltar
What: International friendly
When: 7pm kick off
Where: Rugby Park, Dubai Sports City
Admission: Free
Online: The match will be broadcast live on Dubai Exiles’ Facebook page
UAE squad: Lucas Waddington (Dubai Exiles), Gio Fourie (Exiles), Craig Nutt (Abu Dhabi Harlequins), Phil Brady (Harlequins), Daniel Perry (Dubai Hurricanes), Esekaia Dranibota (Harlequins), Matt Mills (Exiles), Jaen Botes (Exiles), Kristian Stinson (Exiles), Murray Reason (Abu Dhabi Saracens), Dave Knight (Hurricanes), Ross Samson (Jebel Ali Dragons), DuRandt Gerber (Exiles), Saki Naisau (Dragons), Andrew Powell (Hurricanes), Emosi Vacanau (Harlequins), Niko Volavola (Dragons), Matt Richards (Dragons), Luke Stevenson (Harlequins), Josh Ives (Dubai Sports City Eagles), Sean Stevens (Saracens), Thinus Steyn (Exiles)
Sri Lanka squad
Dinesh Chandimal, Dimuth Karunaratne, Kaushal Silva, Kusal Mendis, Angelo Mathews, Lahiru Thirimanne, Niroshan Dickwella, Sadeera Samarawickrama, Rangana Herath, Suranga Lakmal, Nuwan Pradeep, Lakshan Sandakan, Vishwa Fernando, Lahiru Kumara, Jeffrey Vandersay, Milinda Siriwardana, Roshen Silva, Akila Dananjaya, Charith Asalanka, Shaminda Eranga and Dhammika Prasad.
The specs: 2017 Lotus Evora Sport 410
Price, base / as tested Dh395,000 / Dh420,000
Engine 3.5L V6
Transmission Six-speed manual
Power 410hp @ 7,000rpm
Torque 420Nm @ 3,500rpm
Fuel economy, combined 9.7L / 100km
Company Profile
Company name: Yeepeey
Started: Soft launch in November, 2020
Founders: Sagar Chandiramani, Jatin Sharma and Monish Chandiramani
Based: Dubai
Industry: E-grocery
Initial investment: $150,000
Future plan: Raise $1.5m and enter Saudi Arabia next year
Ashes 2019 schedule
August 1-5: First Test, Edgbaston
August 14-18: Second Test, Lord's
August 22-26: Third Test, Headingley
September 4-8: Fourth Test, Old Trafford
September 12-16: Fifth Test, Oval
Jewel of the Expo 2020
252 projectors installed on Al Wasl dome
13.6km of steel used in the structure that makes it equal in length to 16 Burj Khalifas
550 tonnes of moulded steel were raised last year to cap the dome
724,000 cubic metres is the space it encloses
Stands taller than the leaning tower of Pisa
Steel trellis dome is one of the largest single structures on site
The size of 16 tennis courts and weighs as much as 500 elephants
Al Wasl means connection in Arabic
World’s largest 360-degree projection surface
ODI FIXTURE SCHEDULE
First ODI, October 22
Wankhede Stadium, Mumbai
Second ODI, October 25
Maharashtra Cricket Association Stadium, Pune
Third ODI, October 29
Venue TBC
COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Revibe%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202022%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Hamza%20Iraqui%20and%20Abdessamad%20Ben%20Zakour%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20UAE%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EIndustry%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Refurbished%20electronics%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunds%20raised%20so%20far%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%2410m%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFlat6Labs%2C%20Resonance%20and%20various%20others%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
'Ashkal'
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How to avoid crypto fraud
- Use unique usernames and passwords while enabling multi-factor authentication.
- Use an offline private key, a physical device that requires manual activation, whenever you access your wallet.
- Avoid suspicious social media ads promoting fraudulent schemes.
- Only invest in crypto projects that you fully understand.
- Critically assess whether a project’s promises or returns seem too good to be true.
- Only use reputable platforms that have a track record of strong regulatory compliance.
- Store funds in hardware wallets as opposed to online exchanges.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
RESULT
Norway 1 Spain 1
Norway: King (90 4')
Spain: Niguez (47')
Financial considerations before buying a property
Buyers should try to pay as much in cash as possible for a property, limiting the mortgage value to as little as they can afford. This means they not only pay less in interest but their monthly costs are also reduced. Ideally, the monthly mortgage payment should not exceed 20 per cent of the purchaser’s total household income, says Carol Glynn, founder of Conscious Finance Coaching.
“If it’s a rental property, plan for the property to have periods when it does not have a tenant. Ensure you have enough cash set aside to pay the mortgage and other costs during these periods, ideally at least six months,” she says.
Also, shop around for the best mortgage interest rate. Understand the terms and conditions, especially what happens after any introductory periods, Ms Glynn adds.
Using a good mortgage broker is worth the investment to obtain the best rate available for a buyer’s needs and circumstances. A good mortgage broker will help the buyer understand the terms and conditions of the mortgage and make the purchasing process efficient and easier.
TICKETS
For tickets for the two-day Maharlika Pilipinas Basketball League (MPBL) event, entitled Dubai Invasion 2019, on September 27 and 28 go to www.meraticket.com.
Formula Middle East Calendar (Formula Regional and Formula 4)
Round 1: January 17-19, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 2: January 22-23, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 3: February 7-9, Dubai Autodrome – Dubai
Round 4: February 14-16, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 5: February 25-27, Jeddah Corniche Circuit – Saudi Arabia
The specs
Engine: Dual 180kW and 300kW front and rear motors
Power: 480kW
Torque: 850Nm
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Price: From Dh359,900 ($98,000)
On sale: Now
The Brutalist
Director: Brady Corbet
Stars: Adrien Brody, Felicity Jones, Guy Pearce, Joe Alwyn
Rating: 3.5/5
