Take a train from Beijing and after a few hours, each city you pass through becomes indistinguishable from the last.
Fact Box: China's bubble in numbers
3m Typical price in yuan of a two-bedroom flat in Beijing
31 Number of cities, out of a total of 70 analysed, in which property prices fell or were stable last month.
1% Average price increase last month, from June, in the 39 major Chinese cities in which prices increased.
13m Number of Chinese rural dwellers moving to cities each year.
They all show the same pattern of frenzied building of high-rise apartment blocks on the outskirts, leading into a modern if often slightly dreary centre, before another stretch of new apartments appears as the train nears the outskirts.
Orange cranes stand by to construct the endless rows of tower blocks, some of which are still just dark shells, while others are completed and awaiting residents.
As economic chatter in other parts of the world remains preoccupied with debt crises, China's construction boom continues at a breathtaking pace amid near double-digit economic growth.
Such has been the pace of development, fuelled by a rise in prices, which went up threefold between 2005 and 2009, that many believe the sector is set for a heavy landing, perhaps repeating the difficulties it suffered in late 2008. Then, large cities such as Shanghai and Guangzhou saw sharp falls in property prices, and rates of construction fell steeply too.
Fanning fears of another slowdown, there are now cities such as Ordos in the province of Inner Mongolia where vast swathes of properties lie empty, with developers apparently having thrown up apartment blocks with abandon.
It is, says Stephen Joske, director of the Economist Intelligence Unit's China Regional Forecasting Service, "an urbanisation that got ahead of itself". He adds that vacancy rates in many of the areas of urban China he has studied are above 20 per cent.
"In China it's in a serious bubble, [but] it's really hard to predict when this bubble will burst," says Chun Xia, an assistant professor at the University of Hong Kong.
A report by the French bank Societe Generale, titled Chinese Construction Bubble - Preparing for a Potential Burst, said data such as the number of square metres of new property built in the past year, plus cement consumption, indicated construction was "running ahead of its development curve".
"Thus, Chinese construction needs to slow down to avoid a larger construction bubble with many under-performing projects," the report states. If there was a major slump, Mr Chun says "the whole economy will be affected negatively to a great extent", with construction said to make up a quarter of the country's economic activity.
For more than a year, Beijing has introduced various measures to try to cool the market, as it also grapples with concerns about overheating in the economy as a whole.
Restrictions on lending and on multiple house purchases, and some property taxes, have been rolled out, and state media has reported that such restrictions will be introduced into more of China's second and third-tier cities.
Certainly the initiatives have helped to keep a lid on price rises, with the most recent figures, for last month, indicating that out of 70 cities surveyed, prices remained flat or fell in almost half. In Beijing and Shanghai, prices were static.
Yet, says Mr Joske, building rates "are still going too fast". Despite these signs of overheating, Mr Joske says there are factors that make a slump less likely.
In particular, China is in the midst of a period of urbanisation unprecedented in world history, and that means there will be sustained demand for urban properties.
Currently, about half of the country's population of 1.3 billion lives in cities, and about 13 million people are moving to urban areas each year in search of job opportunities.
While this figure is predicted to drop over the coming decade, the ranks of city dwellers are still expected to be swelling by 10 million a year in 2020. Another reason not to get too concerned is that about 30 per cent of buyers are paying cash.
"That suggests that the bursting of that bubble will not be as bad, will not be as damaging as we have seen in the countries where the homeowners get into negative equity," says Danny Quah, a professor at the London School of Economics.
Mr Joske believes there will, however, be a correction of some sort, and that it could begin by the end of this year. With the market having slowed as a result of government restrictions, there is a risk some developers will use up their cash reserves and begin "dumping" properties on to the market. But he does not believe the correction is likely to be too dramatic, and it may be construction rates, rather than prices, that fall.
"The correction that has to happen is in physical investment in housing. This has to come down - they have to build less," he says.
"If there's a slowdown, China doesn't have to have another stimulus package, it just has to relax some of the controls and the property market will kick start."
Whatever happens in the next couple of years, the longer-term outlook remains positive, Dr Chun says. "In the short term it's trouble, but I still believe in the long term the Chinese economy will be in good shape."
dbardsley@thenational.ae
The specs
Price: From Dh529,000
Engine: 5-litre V8
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Power: 520hp
Torque: 625Nm
Fuel economy, combined: 12.8L/100km
More from Neighbourhood Watch:
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
Started: 2021
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
Based: Tunisia
Sector: Water technology
Number of staff: 22
Investment raised: $4 million
Sheikh Zayed's poem
When it is unveiled at Abu Dhabi Art, the Standing Tall exhibition will appear as an interplay of poetry and art. The 100 scarves are 100 fragments surrounding five, figurative, female sculptures, and both sculptures and scarves are hand-embroidered by a group of refugee women artisans, who used the Palestinian cross-stitch embroidery art of tatreez. Fragments of Sheikh Zayed’s poem Your Love is Ruling My Heart, written in Arabic as a love poem to his nation, are embroidered onto both the sculptures and the scarves. Here is the English translation.
Your love is ruling over my heart
Your love is ruling over my heart, even a mountain can’t bear all of it
Woe for my heart of such a love, if it befell it and made it its home
You came on me like a gleaming sun, you are the cure for my soul of its sickness
Be lenient on me, oh tender one, and have mercy on who because of you is in ruins
You are like the Ajeed Al-reem [leader of the gazelle herd] for my country, the source of all of its knowledge
You waddle even when you stand still, with feet white like the blooming of the dates of the palm
Oh, who wishes to deprive me of sleep, the night has ended and I still have not seen you
You are the cure for my sickness and my support, you dried my throat up let me go and damp it
Help me, oh children of mine, for in his love my life will pass me by.
Who is Ramon Tribulietx?
Born in Spain, Tribulietx took sole charge of Auckland in 2010 and has gone on to lead the club to 14 trophies, including seven successive Oceania Champions League crowns. Has been tipped for the vacant New Zealand national team job following Anthony Hudson's resignation last month. Had previously been considered for the role.
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Neil Thomson – THE BIO
Family: I am happily married to my wife Liz and we have two children together.
Favourite music: Rock music. I started at a young age due to my father’s influence. He played in an Indian rock band The Flintstones who were once asked by Apple Records to fly over to England to perform there.
Favourite book: I constantly find myself reading The Bible.
Favourite film: The Greatest Showman.
Favourite holiday destination: I love visiting Melbourne as I have family there and it’s a wonderful place. New York at Christmas is also magical.
Favourite food: I went to boarding school so I like any cuisine really.
Leading all-time NBA scorers
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar 38,387
Karl Malone 36,928
Kobe Bryant 33,643
Michael Jordan 32,292
LeBron James 31,425
Wilt Chamberlain 31,419
Long Shot
Director: Jonathan Levine
Starring: Charlize Theron, Seth Rogan
Four stars
UAE SQUAD
Goalkeepers: Ali Khaseif, Fahad Al Dhanhani, Mohammed Al Shamsi, Adel Al Hosani
Defenders: Bandar Al Ahbabi, Shaheen Abdulrahman, Walid Abbas, Mahmoud Khamis, Mohammed Barghash, Khalifa Al Hammadi, Hassan Al Mahrami, Yousef Jaber, Salem Rashid, Mohammed Al Attas, Alhassan Saleh
Midfielders: Ali Salmeen, Abdullah Ramadan, Abdullah Al Naqbi, Majed Hassan, Yahya Nader, Ahmed Barman, Abdullah Hamad, Khalfan Mubarak, Khalil Al Hammadi, Tahnoun Al Zaabi, Harib Abdallah, Mohammed Jumah, Yahya Al Ghassani
Forwards: Fabio De Lima, Caio Canedo, Ali Saleh, Ali Mabkhout, Sebastian Tagliabue, Zayed Al Ameri
A State of Passion
Directors: Carol Mansour and Muna Khalidi
Stars: Dr Ghassan Abu-Sittah
Rating: 4/5
Charlotte Gainsbourg
Rest
(Because Music)
WRESTLING HIGHLIGHTS
The five pillars of Islam
The specs: 2018 Dodge Durango SRT
Price, base / as tested: Dh259,000
Engine: 6.4-litre V8
Power: 475hp @ 6,000rpm
Torque: 640Nm @ 4,300rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed automatic
Fuel consumption, combined: 7.7L / 100km
Brief scores:
Everton 0
Leicester City 1
Vardy 58'
The biog
Age: 35
Inspiration: Wife and kids
Favourite book: Changes all the time but my new favourite is Thinking, Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman
Best Travel Destination: Bora Bora , French Polynesia
Favourite run: Jabel Hafeet, I also enjoy running the 30km loop in Al Wathba cycling track
Famous left-handers
- Marie Curie
- Jimi Hendrix
- Leonardo Di Vinci
- David Bowie
- Paul McCartney
- Albert Einstein
- Jack the Ripper
- Barack Obama
- Helen Keller
- Joan of Arc
How to watch Ireland v Pakistan in UAE
When: The one-off Test starts on Friday, May 11
What time: Each day’s play is scheduled to start at 2pm UAE time.
TV: The match will be broadcast on OSN Sports Cricket HD. Subscribers to the channel can also stream the action live on OSN Play.
Team Angel Wolf Beach Blast takes place every Wednesday between 4:30pm and 5:30pm
'Laal Kaptaan'
Director: Navdeep Singh
Stars: Saif Ali Khan, Manav Vij, Deepak Dobriyal, Zoya Hussain
Rating: 2/5
Gulf Under 19s
Pools
A – Dubai College, Deira International School, Al Ain Amblers, Warriors
B – Dubai English Speaking College, Repton Royals, Jumeirah College, Gems World Academy
C – British School Al Khubairat, Abu Dhabi Harlequins, Dubai Hurricanes, Al Yasmina Academy
D – Dubai Exiles, Jumeirah English Speaking School, English College, Bahrain Colts
Recent winners
2018 – Dubai College
2017 – British School Al Khubairat
2016 – Dubai English Speaking School
2015 – Al Ain Amblers
2014 – Dubai College
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
BUNDESLIGA FIXTURES
Friday Hertha Berlin v Union Berlin (11.30pm)
Saturday Freiburg v Borussia Monchengladbach, Eintracht Frankfurt v Borussia Dortmund, Cologne v Wolfsburg, Arminia Bielefeld v Mainz (6.30pm) Bayern Munich v RB Leipzig (9.30pm)
Sunday Werder Bremen v Stuttgart (6.30pm), Schalke v Bayer Leverkusen (9pm)
Monday Hoffenheim v Augsburg (11.30pm)
How to donate
Send “thenational” to the following numbers or call the hotline on: 0502955999
2289 – Dh10
2252 – Dh 50
6025 – Dh20
6027 – Dh 100
6026 – Dh 200
The biog
Job: Fitness entrepreneur, body-builder and trainer
Favourite superhero: Batman
Favourite quote: We must become the change we want to see, by Mahatma Gandhi.
Favourite car: Lamborghini
if you go
The flights
Etihad flies direct from Abu Dhabi to San Francisco from Dh5,760 return including taxes.
The car
Etihad Guest members get a 10 per cent worldwide discount when booking with Hertz, as well as earning miles on their rentals (more at www.hertz.com/etihad). A week's car hire costs from Dh1,500 including taxes.
The hotels
Along the route, Motel 6 (www.motel6.com) offers good value and comfort, with rooms from $55 (Dh202) per night including taxes. In Portland, the Jupiter Hotel (https://jupiterhotel.com/) has rooms from $165 (Dh606) per night including taxes. The Society Hotel https://thesocietyhotel.com/ has rooms from $130 (Dh478) per night including taxes.
More info
To keep up with constant developments in Portland, visit www.travelportland.com
Our family matters legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
Liverpool’s fixtures until end of 2019
Saturday, November 30, Brighton (h)
Wednesday, December 4, Everton (h)
Saturday, December 7, Bournemouth (a)
Tuesday, December 10, Salzburg (a) CL
Saturday, December 14, Watford (h)
Tuesday, December 17, Aston Villa (a) League Cup
Wednesday, December 18, Club World Cup in Qatar
Saturday, December 21, Club World Cup in Qatar
Thursday, December 26, Leicester (a)
Sunday, December 29, Wolves (h)
Results
4pm: Maiden (Dirt) Dh165,000 1,600m
Winner: Moshaher, Pat Dobbs (jockey), Doug Watson (trainer).
4.35pm: Handicap (D) Dh165,000 2,200m
Winner: Heraldic, Richard Mullen, Satish Seemar.
5.10pm: Maiden (Turf) Dh165,000 1,600m
Winner: Rua Augusta, Harry Bentley, Ahmad bin Harmash.
5.45pm: Handicap (D) Dh190,000 1,200m
Winner: Private’s Cove, Mickael Barzalona, Sandeep Jadhav.
6.20pm: Handicap (T) Dh190,000 1,600m
Winner: Azmaam, Jim Crowley, Musabah Al Muhairi.
6.55pm: Handicap (D) Dh190,000 1,400m
Winner: Bochart, Richard Mullen, Satish Seemar.
7.30pm: Handicap (T) Dh190,000 2,000m
Winner: Rio Tigre, Mickael Barzalona, Sandeep Jadhav.
Company: Instabug
Founded: 2013
Based: Egypt, Cairo
Sector: IT
Employees: 100
Stage: Series A
Investors: Flat6Labs, Accel, Y Combinator and angel investors
Tips for used car buyers
- Choose cars with GCC specifications
- Get a service history for cars less than five years old
- Don’t go cheap on the inspection
- Check for oil leaks
- Do a Google search on the standard problems for your car model
- Do your due diligence. Get a transfer of ownership done at an official RTA centre
- Check the vehicle’s condition. You don’t want to buy a car that’s a good deal but ends up costing you Dh10,000 in repairs every month
- Validate warranty and service contracts with the relevant agency and and make sure they are valid when ownership is transferred
- If you are planning to sell the car soon, buy one with a good resale value. The two most popular cars in the UAE are black or white in colour and other colours are harder to sell
Tarek Kabrit, chief executive of Seez, and Imad Hammad, chief executive and co-founder of CarSwitch.com
The specs
Engine: 3.0-litre six-cylinder turbo
Power: 398hp from 5,250rpm
Torque: 580Nm at 1,900-4,800rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Fuel economy, combined: 6.5L/100km
On sale: December
Price: From Dh330,000 (estimate)
First-round leaderbaord
-5 C Conners (Can)
-3 B Koepka (US), K Bradley (US), V Hovland (Nor), A Wise (US), S Horsfield (Eng), C Davis (Aus);
-2 C Morikawa (US), M Laird (Sco), C Tringale (US)
Selected others: -1 P Casey (Eng), R Fowler (US), T Hatton (Eng)
Level B DeChambeau (US), J Rose (Eng)
1 L Westwood (Eng), J Spieth (US)
3 R McIlroy (NI)
4 D Johnson (US)
Info
What: 11th edition of the Mubadala World Tennis Championship
When: December 27-29, 2018
Confirmed: men: Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal, Kevin Anderson, Dominic Thiem, Hyeon Chung, Karen Khachanov; women: Venus Williams
Tickets: www.ticketmaster.ae, Virgin megastores or call 800 86 823
Key fixtures from January 5-7
Watford v Bristol City
Liverpool v Everton
Brighton v Crystal Palace
Bournemouth v AFC Fylde or Wigan
Coventry v Stoke City
Nottingham Forest v Arsenal
Manchester United v Derby
Forest Green or Exeter v West Brom
Tottenham v AFC Wimbledon
Fleetwood or Hereford v Leicester City
Manchester City v Burnley
Shrewsbury v West Ham United
Wolves v Swansea City
Newcastle United v Luton Town
Fulham v Southampton
Norwich City v Chelsea
The specs
Engine: 3-litre twin-turbo V6
Power: 400hp
Torque: 475Nm
Transmission: 9-speed automatic
Price: From Dh215,900
On sale: Now
Our legal consultant
Name: Dr Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League final:
Who: Real Madrid v Liverpool
Where: NSC Olimpiyskiy Stadium, Kiev, Ukraine
When: Saturday, May 26, 10.45pm (UAE)
TV: Match on BeIN Sports
THE BIO
Favourite holiday destination: Whenever I have any free time I always go back to see my family in Caltra, Galway, it’s the only place I can properly relax.
Favourite film: The Way, starring Martin Sheen. It’s about the Camino de Santiago walk from France to Spain.
Personal motto: If something’s meant for you it won’t pass you by.
RESULTS
ATP China Open
G Dimitrov (BUL x3) bt R Bautista Agut (ESP x5)
7-6, 4-6, 6-2
R Nadal (ESP x1) bt J Isner (USA x6)
6-4, 7-6
WTA China Open
S Halep (ROU x2) bt D Kasatkina (RUS)
6-2, 6-1
J Ostapenko (LAT x9) bt S Cirstea (ROU)
6-4, 6-4
ATP Japan Open
D Schwartzman (ARG x8) bt S Johnson (USA)
6-0, 7-5
D Goffin (BEL x4) bt R Gasquet (FRA)
7-5, 6-2
M Cilic (CRO x1) bt R Harrison (USA)
6-2, 6-0
If you go
The flights
Emirates flies from Dubai to Seattle from Dh5,555 return, including taxes.
The car
Hertz offers compact car rental from about $300 (Dh1,100) per week, including taxes. Emirates Skywards members can earn points on their car hire through Hertz.
The national park
Entry to Mount Rainier National Park costs $30 for one vehicle and passengers for up to seven days. Accommodation can be booked through mtrainierguestservices.com. Prices vary according to season. Rooms at the Holiday Inn Yakima cost from $125 per night, excluding breakfast.
Race card
4pm Al Bastakiya Listed US$300,000 (Dirt) 1,900m
4.35pm Mahab Al Shimaal Group 3 $350,000 (D) 1,200m
5.10pm Nad Al Sheba Turf Group 3 $350,000 (Turf) 1,200m
5.45pm Burj Nahaar Group 3 $350,000 (D) 1,600m
6.20pm Jebel Hatta Group 1 $400,000 (T) 1,800m
6.55pm Al Maktoum Challenge Round-3 Group 1 $600,000 (D) 2,000m
7.30pm Dubai City Of Gold Group 2 $350,000 (T) 2,410m
The National selections:
4pm Zabardast
4.35pm Ibn Malik
5.10pm Space Blues
5.45pm Kimbear
6.20pm Barney Roy
6.55pm Matterhorn
7.30pm Defoe
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
RACE CARD
6.30pm Al Maktoum Challenge Round-1 Group 1 (PA) Dh119,373 (Dirt) 1,600m
7.05pm Handicap (TB) Dh102,500 (D) 1,200m
7.40pm Handicap (TB) Dh105,000 (Turf) 1,800m
8.15pm UAE 1000 Guineas Trial (TB) Dh183,650 (D) 1,400m
9.50pm Handicap (TB) Dh105,000 (D) 1,600m
9.25pm Handicap (TB) Dh95,000 (T) 1,000m
