UAE lags rivals in adapting to the rise of the yuan



The current “next big thing”, by common consent among financial experts, is the growth of the Chinese yuan as a global currency. But the UAE seems almost unaware, at an official level at least, of the opportunities this transformation of the world financial scene will present.

At the very least, the UAE seems some way behind other financial hubs in the preparations for the arrival of the yuan.

The emergence of the yuan has been a hot topic in the geo-financial community for some time. Just recently, Douglas Flint, chairman of HSBC, told a gathering of bankers and officials in London that the “yuan is already a major global currency”, lining up alongside sterling, dollars, deutschemarks, yen and euros as currencies that have, for shorter or longer periods, been the world’s dominant mediums of exchange.

The US dollar still occupies that position, as it has for most of the past century, but there are fundamental and persuasive reasons this could change in the not-too-distant future. The Chinese economy will overtake the US in size in a matter of years, maybe even months.

When the yuan is made fully convertible, which Mr Flint said could happen by 2017 such is the speed of reform in China, it could make a quantum leap in the world currency league. It has already overtaken the euro as the world’s second trading currency.

That still does not make it a “reserve” currency like the dollar, but the clear and apparently inexorable trend is in that direction.

Some financial centres have recognised this tide, and are positioning themselves to swim with it. In the east, Hong Kong and Singapore have given official backing to the establishment of yuan trading centres within their jurisdictions. In Europe, London and Luxembourg have also joined the party; just yesterday, the French central bank announced a deal with Beijing to base yuan trading in Paris. Even Istanbul is talking enthusiastically about the yuan.

The gap in between east and west is one that the UAE increasingly sees as its own space in global financial markets. Indeed, one of the basic arguments for the establishment of the new Abu Dhabi Global Market is to bridge this gap. Yet with regard to the yuan, there seems little official enthusiasm to promote the UAE as the leading regional centre.

There is of course one big reason why the UAE has been quiet on the subject: the dirham is officially pegged to the US dollar, an arrangement that has served the country well for many years and through successive phases of the economic cycle.

But loyalty to a tried and trusted system is not an excuse for failing to spot a commercial opportunity, and indeed there is no reason why the dollar-dirham peg should not be maintained in parallel with a push for greater yuan capability.

One first step towards this would be to increase the number of qualified financial institutional investors (QFIIs) in the UAE. These are institutions recognised by the Chinese authorities as suitable partners with whom to do business.

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority is the only QFII in the country, and there are only three in the Arabian Gulf region, compared to dozens in the US and Europe. Even tiny Belgium has five QFIIs.

The next challenge is to create a pool of yuan liquidity in the UAE that can handle the booming yuan trade. At the moment, probably less than 1 per cent of the country’s reserves are in the Chinese currency, compared to high double-digit percentages elsewhere.

Booming trade between the UAE and China will rectify some of this on its own. Chinese exporters are increasingly keen to denominate transactions in yuan, and as UAE-China trade moves away from the Dragon Mart consumer stereotype to higher value sectors, like telecom infrastructure products produced by the Chinese conglomerate Huawei for example, this makes supreme financial sense.

Some lone voices have been raised in Dubai and Abu Dhabi in support of the UAE as a centre for yuan trading, but they have failed to get much traction. Yuan trading is an idea whose time is coming, if not already come, and it would be in the UAE’s long term interest to pursue the opportunities it presents.

fkane@thenational.ae

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Engine: 3-litre twin-turbo V6

Power: 400hp

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Transmission: 9-speed automatic

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Formula Middle East Calendar (Formula Regional and Formula 4)
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The specs

Engine: 1.5-litre 4-cylinder petrol

Power: 154bhp

Torque: 250Nm

Transmission: 7-speed automatic with 8-speed sports option 

Price: From Dh79,600

On sale: Now

Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

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Rating: 2/5

The specs: 2018 Mercedes-AMG C63 S Cabriolet

Price, base: Dh429,090

Engine 4.0-litre twin-turbo V8

Transmission Seven-speed automatic

Power 510hp @ 5,500rpm

Torque 700Nm @ 1,750rpm

Fuel economy, combined 9.2L / 100km