"Some say the world will end in fire, Some say in ice", as the American poet Robert Frost put it. Currently, the sands of the Libyan desert are the locus for conflict around oil installations, but might the struggle for resources shift to the Arctic?
Admiral James Stavridis, the supreme Nato commander for Europe, thinks so. He warned last year that the lure of oil could cause the polar regions to slip "down the icy slope towards a zone of competition, or worse a zone of conflict".
And Russia's 2009 national security strategy explicitly raises the possibility of using military force to defend its Arctic interests. In 2007, mini-submarines planted a Russian flag on the seabed at the North Pole, staking Vladimir Putin's claim in the style of a 16th-century conquistador.
Even Denmark and Canada have managed to tangle over Hans Island, a barren rock slightly larger than Dubai Mall, sending naval forces to the area.
For most of history, it has not been necessary to define territorial claims in this frozen wasteland. Onshore production in Alaska and west Siberia goes back to the 1960s, but only recently have higher oil prices, and the retreat of the ice cap under the onslaught of global warming, made offshore Arctic resources economically viable.
The US Geological Survey estimates potential for 134 billion barrels of oil (about as much as Iran's reserves) and 1,670 trillion cubic feet of gas (more than Russia's reserves).
At the start of this month, Norway's Statoil rekindled the interest of petroleum geologists by finding some 250 million barrels of oil and gas at the Skrugard prospect in the Barents Sea. This expanse of chilly waters runs from the North Cape, Europe's farthest extremity, up to the glacier-bound islands of Svalbard, kingdom of the polar bear, at 78 degrees north.
The Barents Sea has long had tantalising but unfulfilled promise. A long string of exploration wells yielded only two discoveries, which waited decades for development in these harsh conditions. Now Skrugard will revitalise exploration in Norway's far north.
"We have confirmed that our exploration model is correct," says Tim Dodson, the vice president for exploration at Statoil.
Across the Russian border, in the eastern Barents, Shtokman, one of the world's largest gasfields, was discovered in 1988. Although reserves in this one field are more than half of the total for the UAE, it still awaits development because of endless procrastination by the Russians over the western partners they prefer, the current weak gas markets and the development's vast cost, technical challenges and environmental sensitivity.
And BP's agreement with state-owned Rosneft to explore the remote and chilly Kara Sea has struck a legal iceberg in the shape of BP's difficult Russian oligarch partners.
Shell's attempts to drill in the Chukchi and Beaufort seas north of Alaska have been held up by legal and environmental challenges. With only a short summer window for drilling, each delay means waiting through another six months of the polar night.
As with the rest of its offshore resources, the US is locked in a limbo that benefits no one. Its continuing failure, largely over conservative arguments about sovereignty, to ratify the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea further hampers it, preventing it from agreeing on its borders with Canada and Russia.
So the feverish claims of a new "gold rush" are negated by the glacial progress to date.
Armchair analysts, with their alarmist speculation over oil wars, seem to have overlooked that by far most of the Arctic's oil and gas resources lies within uncontested areas. One of the most prospective areas, the eastern Barents, was settled by a reasonable compromise between Norway and Russia last April, so fears of a war between Canada and Greenland may be overstated.
Although Arctic oil and gas reserves are likely to be substantial, they will not be a windfall along the lines of Middle East petroleum. One billion barrels in Abu Dhabi or Kuwait, costing a few dollars to extract, has a very different value from 1 billion barrels under the Greenland ice floes.
The remaining disputed area is below water up to 4km deep, covered by a permanent ice cap, and 1,000km from the nearest landfall. It looks unlikely to be prospective for oil and gas, and even if it is it will be hugely costly to develop, with the start of exploration probably decades away.
Instead of the macho posturing of planting flags and launching warships, the polar nations would do better to make use of the real resources to which they already have firm legal claim. International co-operation is needed for oil and gas development in this remote area, not least to minimise environmental risks.
Wars, whether of weapons or words, guarantee Arctic resources will remain on ice.
Robin Mills is an energy economist based in Dubai, and the author of The Myth of the Oil Crisis and Capturing Carbon
The specs
Engine: 3-litre twin-turbo V6
Power: 400hp
Torque: 475Nm
Transmission: 9-speed automatic
Price: From Dh215,900
On sale: Now
How to come clean about financial infidelity
- Be honest and transparent: It is always better to own up than be found out. Tell your partner everything they want to know. Show remorse. Inform them of the extent of the situation so they know what they are dealing with.
- Work on yourself: Be honest with yourself and your partner and figure out why you did it. Don’t be ashamed to ask for professional help.
- Give it time: Like any breach of trust, it requires time to rebuild. So be consistent, communicate often and be patient with your partner and yourself.
- Discuss your financial situation regularly: Ensure your spouse is involved in financial matters and decisions. Your ability to consistently follow through with what you say you are going to do when it comes to money can make all the difference in your partner’s willingness to trust you again.
- Work on a plan to resolve the problem together: If there is a lot of debt, for example, create a budget and financial plan together and ensure your partner is fully informed, involved and supported.
Carol Glynn, founder of Conscious Finance Coaching
Libya's Gold
UN Panel of Experts found regime secretly sold a fifth of the country's gold reserves.
The panel’s 2017 report followed a trail to West Africa where large sums of cash and gold were hidden by Abdullah Al Senussi, Qaddafi’s former intelligence chief, in 2011.
Cases filled with cash that was said to amount to $560m in 100 dollar notes, that was kept by a group of Libyans in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso.
A second stash was said to have been held in Accra, Ghana, inside boxes at the local offices of an international human rights organisation based in France.
COMPANY PROFILE
Founders: Alhaan Ahmed, Alyina Ahmed and Maximo Tettamanzi
Total funding: Self funded
Dubai Bling season three
Cast: Loujain Adada, Zeina Khoury, Farhana Bodi, Ebraheem Al Samadi, Mona Kattan, and couples Safa & Fahad Siddiqui and DJ Bliss & Danya Mohammed
Rating: 1/5
Company Profile
Founder: Omar Onsi
Launched: 2018
Employees: 35
Financing stage: Seed round ($12 million)
Investors: B&Y, Phoenician Funds, M1 Group, Shorooq Partners
Game Changer
Director: Shankar
Stars: Ram Charan, Kiara Advani, Anjali, S J Suryah, Jayaram
Rating: 2/5
Lowest Test scores
26 - New Zealand v England at Auckland, March 1955
30 - South Africa v England at Port Elizabeth, Feb 1896
30 - South Africa v England at Birmingham, June 1924
35 - South Africa v England at Cape Town, April 1899
36 - South Africa v Australia at Melbourne, Feb. 1932
36 - Australia v England at Birmingham, May 1902
36 - India v Australia at Adelaide, Dec. 2020
38 - Ireland v England at Lord's, July 2019
42 - New Zealand v Australia in Wellington, March 1946
42 - Australia v England in Sydney, Feb. 1888
Recipe
Garlicky shrimp in olive oil
Gambas Al Ajillo
Preparation time: 5 to 10 minutes
Cooking time: 5 minutes
Serves 4
Ingredients
180ml extra virgin olive oil; 4 to 5 large cloves of garlic, minced or pureed (or 3 to 4 garlic scapes, roughly chopped); 1 or 2 small hot red chillies, dried (or ¼ teaspoon dried red chilli flakes); 400g raw prawns, deveined, heads removed and tails left intact; a generous splash of sweet chilli vinegar; sea salt flakes for seasoning; a small handful of fresh flat-leaf parsley, roughly chopped
Method
▶ Heat the oil in a terracotta dish or frying pan. Once the oil is sizzling hot, add the garlic and chilli, stirring continuously for about 10 seconds until golden and aromatic.
▶ Add a splash of sweet chilli vinegar and as it vigorously simmers, releasing perfumed aromas, add the prawns and cook, stirring a few times.
▶ Once the prawns turn pink, after 1 or 2 minutes of cooking, remove from the heat and season with sea salt flakes.
▶ Once the prawns are cool enough to eat, scatter with parsley and serve with small forks or toothpicks as the perfect sharing starter. Finish off with crusty bread to soak up all that flavour-infused olive oil.
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Almnssa
Started: August 2020
Founder: Areej Selmi
Based: Gaza
Sectors: Internet, e-commerce
Investments: Grants/private funding
The Book of Collateral Damage
Sinan Antoon
(Yale University Press)
Living in...
This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home.
If you go
Where to stay: Courtyard by Marriott Titusville Kennedy Space Centre has unparalleled views of the Indian River. Alligators can be spotted from hotel room balconies, as can several rocket launch sites. The hotel also boasts cool space-themed decor.
When to go: Florida is best experienced during the winter months, from November to May, before the humidity kicks in.
How to get there: Emirates currently flies from Dubai to Orlando five times a week.
Thank You for Banking with Us
Director: Laila Abbas
Starring: Yasmine Al Massri, Clara Khoury, Kamel El Basha, Ashraf Barhoum
Rating: 4/5
Learn more about Qasr Al Hosn
In 2013, The National's History Project went beyond the walls to see what life was like living in Abu Dhabi's fabled fort:
THE SPECS
Engine: 6.75-litre twin-turbocharged V12 petrol engine
Power: 420kW
Torque: 780Nm
Transmission: 8-speed automatic
Price: From Dh1,350,000
On sale: Available for preorder now
The Sand Castle
Director: Matty Brown
Stars: Nadine Labaki, Ziad Bakri, Zain Al Rafeea, Riman Al Rafeea
Rating: 2.5/5
The biog
From: Upper Egypt
Age: 78
Family: a daughter in Egypt; a son in Dubai and his wife, Nabila
Favourite Abu Dhabi activity: walking near to Emirates Palace
Favourite building in Abu Dhabi: Emirates Palace
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What is a robo-adviser?
Robo-advisers use an online sign-up process to gauge an investor’s risk tolerance by feeding information such as their age, income, saving goals and investment history into an algorithm, which then assigns them an investment portfolio, ranging from more conservative to higher risk ones.
These portfolios are made up of exchange traded funds (ETFs) with exposure to indices such as US and global equities, fixed-income products like bonds, though exposure to real estate, commodity ETFs or gold is also possible.
Investing in ETFs allows robo-advisers to offer fees far lower than traditional investments, such as actively managed mutual funds bought through a bank or broker. Investors can buy ETFs directly via a brokerage, but with robo-advisers they benefit from investment portfolios matched to their risk tolerance as well as being user friendly.
Many robo-advisers charge what are called wrap fees, meaning there are no additional fees such as subscription or withdrawal fees, success fees or fees for rebalancing.
