Extreme heat due to climate change will make it “impossible” to hold the Olympics during the summer months, a new study has revealed.
Athletes have been working with climate scientists and heat physiologists from the University of Portsmouth to assess the threat warming temperatures could pose.
It comes amid fears of dangerous conditions at this year’s Paris Games, which start next month.
In a report, published on Tuesday, scientists warn that intense heat could lead to competitors collapsing and, in worst-case scenarios, dying.
One of the report’s recommendations includes changing the traditional schedules of competitions, so that they take place in cooler months or cooler times of the day.
Dr Jo Corbett, Associate Professor of Environmental Physiology at the University of Portsmouth, told The National that climate change will continue to impact the Olympics.
"The Olympics in Paris has the potential to be really challenging in terms of the conditions and some of those involved will experience heat and solar radiation," he said.
"It will be hard for the athletes, spectators and officials depending on the event and the exposure they will encounter.
"In the extreme, there is the potential for adverse health consequences in the short and long term. In the shorter term they could experience heat illnesses and longer term heat stroke associated illnesses.
"In future Olympics organisers will have to think about when and where the games are held particularly with regards to the risks to athletes and put in place as much protections as possible, such as shade and holding events inside.
"It could see it being impossible to hold the Olympics in summer in some areas going forward. There are already parts of the world where it cannot be held. The performance the athletes are performing at will decrease as the planet warms."
Senior research associate at Climate Central, Kaitlyn Trudeau, said that extreme heat combined with humidity means the body struggles to cool down, which can lead to heat-stress on bodies, dizziness, exhaustion and heat stroke.
“Without concerted efforts to reduce carbon emissions there’s no doubt that the Earth’s temperatures are on a trajectory that will make it nearly impossible, if not completely impossible, to host summer Olympics,” she said.
Samuel Mattis, a discus thrower on the American Olympic team, said hot conditions disrupted the Olympic track and field trials in 2021, which eventually had to take place in the evening, even though it was still around 30C.
“I think in a lot of places, in the US and around the world, summertime competitions unless they’re held in the middle of the night are going to become essentially impossible,” he said.
Jamie Farndale, a Team GB rugby sevens player, said that extreme heat “takes a lot away from you” as you play.
“I found myself in these conditions where you’re literally trying to get through the next phase of play, your hands are sweaty, you (can only) concentrate on catching the ball so I think it makes a worse game. It’s also dangerous," he said.
The British player said he wanted the sports sector to sound an “alarm bell” to prevent warming, as well as look at adaptation methods, such as moving schedules.
“We need to fight for every tenth of a degree that we possibly can,” he said.
The climate researchers looked at how temperatures have changed since the Olympics were last hosted in Paris and France a century ago in 1924, with analysis suggesting an average 3.1C warming for those weeks in July and August.
They found a heightened risk of extreme heat at the Paris Games this year, citing the deadly heatwave in France in 2003 – which killed more than 14,000 people – and subsequent years of record-breaking temperatures, exceeding 42°C.
It comes after the Tokyo Games in 2020 became known as the “hottest in history”, with temperatures exceeding 34°C and humidity reaching nearly 70 per cent.
Pragnya Mohan, the highest-ranking triathlete in Indian history, said she can no longer train in her home country because of the heat.
She said sponsors want “more visibility” so events tend to be held in the afternoons for maximum public turnout, meaning she has competed in “extremely dangerous” conditions, when temperatures were 40°C-plus and humidity was 80 per cent-plus.
The report produced by the British Association for Sustainable Sport and FrontRunners outlined five recommendations to better support and protect athletes from extreme heat.
Alongside smarter scheduling to avoid heat extremes, these were urging sporting authorities to introduce better rehydration and cooling plans for athletes, empowering athletes to speak out on climate change, boosting collaboration between sporting bodies and athletes on climate awareness campaigns, and reassessing fossil fuel sponsorship in sport.
Lord Sebastian Coe, president of World Athletics and four-time Olympic medallist, said climate change should be viewed as a threat to sports.
“For athletes, from smaller performance-impacting issues like sleep disruption and last-minute changes to event timings, to exacerbated health impacts and heat-related stress and injury, the consequences can be varied and wide-ranging," he said.
“With global temperatures continuing to rise, climate change should increasingly be viewed as an existential threat to sport.”
Other athletes involved in the report were Hannah Mills, British Olympic sailing champion, Imogen Grant, British Olympic rower, Eliza McCartney, a New Zealand bronze Olympic medallist in pole vault, Kelsey-Lee Barber, Australian Olympic bronze medallist in javelin, Rhydian Cowley, an Australian Olympic racewalker, Ajla Del Ponte, a Swiss Olympic springer, Elena Vallortigara, Italian high jump Olympian, Morten Thorsby, a Norwegian footballer, Jenny Casson, a Canadian Olympic rower, and Katie Rood, a New Zealand football player.
A second study, by AXA Climate and Sport 1.5, published on Monday, has also revealed several events will also not be able to take place as before due to global warming.
It has found that currently there are on average 26 days per year where the temperature feels uncomfortable for amateur sports, taking into account the actual temperature and relative humidity. By 2050, this number will reach 55 days.
By 2050, it said the marathon being held in Paris would be called into question.
"In August 2050, maximum temperatures will exceed 28°C for 12 days, double compared to today. This threshold represents risks for the health and performance of athletes," it said.
"Additionally, marathon runners could see their performance decrease by at least 3% to 4% while running in these conditions."
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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
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