Rich countries have pledged to fund the fight against climate change with a deal committing at least $300 billion a year struck at UN talks in Azerbaijan.
A fiercely contested package was approved on Sunday in Baku after the developed world raised its offer from $250 billion, bringing talks at the Cop29 summit to a delayed conclusion. The negotiations had teetered on the brink of collapse as delegates from Africa and island states walked out of last-ditch meetings amid pleas for more funding.
The compromise deal calls on “all actors” to help raise the $1.3 trillion a year sum requested by the developing world. However, a $300 billion core to be arranged by rich countries is smaller and vaguer than poor and hard-hit nations had pushed for in two weeks of talks in Azerbaijan.
It can include private finance and “encourages” emerging economies to chip in – two points insisted on by the US and Europe. Weary delegates applauded as summit President Mukhtar Babayev concluded the deal shortly before 3am in Baku.
Reacting to the deal, UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres said he had hoped for a more ambitious outcome but added the agreement “provides a base on which to build”.
Simon Stiell, executive secretary of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, hailed it as an insurance policy for humanity. “This deal will keep the clean energy boom growing and protect billions of lives. It will help all countries to share in the huge benefits of bold climate action: more jobs, stronger growth, cheaper and cleaner energy for all”, he said.
Talks ran deep into the night as the Azerbaijani hosts sought to bridge deep divides on how to finance emissions cuts, disaster preparation and recovery. They said they had “faced geopolitical headwinds and made every effort to be an honest broker for all sides”.
But it was clear that some states had let the deal pass only begrudgingly. Cuba, a member of a powerful group of developing nations including China, said the package will “in no way lead to an improvement in the situation”. India said it was “extremely disappointed” that the deal had been concluded before more arguments could be heard.
In a plenary session on Saturday night, Mr Babayev said “time is not on our side”. He urged negotiators to step up engagement with one another and “to bridge that remaining divide”.
Crucial players had rejected a $1.3 trillion proposal presented by Azerbaijan on Friday. The plan aimed to establish a $250 billion annual minimum to fund the fight against climate change, to be arranged by wealthier nations – far below the amount requested by developing countries.
The Alliance of Small Island States (Aosis) had earlier walked out of negotiations which they said were “not offering a progressive way forward.” Small island developing states and least developing countries are among the worst affected by the climate crisis.
Aosis chairman, Samoan minister Cedric Schuster, said its calls have been continuously ignored. “After this Cop29 ends, we cannot just sail off into the sunset. We are literally sinking.”
Brazil's Minister of the Environment and Climate Change, Marina Silva, has questioned why the value of financing was put forward only in the final hours of the summit. In place of the $250 billion core proposed in the latest text, Brazil wanted to raise the figure to $300 billion until 2030, and $390 billion until 2035.
Climate activists used a rally on Saturday to urge developing countries to “hold the line” in the talks. Haneen Mahmoud Ali Hamed, a delegate from Climate Action Network’s Arab world branch, said the global south was “asking for reasonable numbers”.
“It’s not a lot, it’s our right,” she said. “We are asking for trillions – these trillions they are spending on nonsense. Wars, taking our resources … but they don’t want us to take the trillions that we deserve.”
Carbon market win for Cop29
The Cop29 presidency has managed to end the decade-long wait for the conclusion of negotiations on high-integrity carbon markets.
Known as Article 6 under the 2015 Paris Agreement, the aim was to provide transparent carbon markets for countries as they collaborate to reach their climate goals. It allows nations to transfer carbon credits earned through emission reductions to assist in meeting their climate targets.
This cross-border co-operation is expected to reduce the cost of introducing countries’ national climate plans by up to $250 billion a year.
“Today, we have unlocked one of the most complex and technical challenges in climate diplomacy,” said Cop29 lead negotiator Yalchin Rafiyev. “Article 6 is hard to understand, but its impacts will be clear in our everyday lives. It means coal plants decommissioned, wind farms built and forests planted. It means a new wave of investment in the developing world.”
The outcome was a hard-earned achievement. Although the Glasgow and Sharm El-Sheikh Cops succeeded in establishing vital rules and procedures for carbon markets, the final components of Article 6 were left unresolved. Leading up to Cop29, these negotiations had reached a standstill, causing a significant delay in the full implementation.
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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
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