Michael Knights, an Iraq expert and Lafer fellow at The Washington Institute for Near East Policy speaks to Justin Vela about US policy in the Middle East.
* This transcript has been lightly edited
The National: There are calls are being made for the United States to intervene in Iraq to fight terrorists, militants from the Islamic State who have taken over large parts of the country. Yet, if the US chooses to become involved military it risks being perceived as backing Iraq’s Shiite prime minister Nouri Al Maliki and the various Shiite militias prepared to fight the Sunni insurgents. Can you describe some of the thinking that is probably taking place is Washington about how much to become involved right now?
Knights: All across the world, when the US detects a major Salafi terrorist movement like the Islamic State of Iraq and Al Shams, as it was called until recently, it tends to strike that movement. If that’s in Yemen or if it’s in the Sahara desert or if it’s in Afghanistan, Pakistan. Any of these places, except for one. One place where it can get away with pretty much anything is the Iraq-Syria area.
And the reason for that, as you point out, is because the US does not want to get dragged into a quagmire, a major conflict, as a combatant. On the other hand, there are probably ways that the US can undertake discrete counterterrorism operations in the Iraq-Syria area, without getting drawn into the broader conflict.
People who oppose US military intervention will say that’s easier said than done. And they are right. It would require discipline and focus for the US to undertake discrete counterterrorism operations without becoming involved in the broader civil war like conditions that we see in Iraq. But that’s the challenge for the US right now.
I imagine that the way to focus on this more discrete counter-terrorism challenge is for the US to stay away from operations in and Iraq Baghdad and the cross-sectarian areas around the Iraqi capital, where both Sunni and Shia live very closely meshed together. And instead for the US to focus any military intervention it does on the more open desert areas in the Iraq-Syria border area and in areas where the Islamic State are openly controlling affairs.
The National: Does Iraq hold potential for the US to cooperate with Iran or is it just increasing tensions between the two countries? Both countries have drones flying over Iraq. I’ve been wondering what happens if a US drone collides with an Iranian drone. Who cleans up that mess?
Knights: Well, I’ve spent a lot of time in Iraq and I remember seeing Iranian drones flying over both Basra and Diyala Province in the past. So it’s not a new phenomenon that these two countries are essentially sharing the military adviser mission. That’s always been the case actually. The Iranians and the US have always both put trainers in. They’ve also both put drones and technical intelligence collection into Iraq right way back to 2003. If two drones hit each other, it’s like two flies bumping into each other. It’s a very unlikely thing to happen. So I suspect both sides would just wash their hands of it and say ‘Shucks, we lost another two drones.’
But the broader point here is whether this could bring the US and Iran closer together. Or whether this could be another source of irritation between the two.
We had a small window in mid-June where the US and the Iranians were both stressing the importance of defeating ISIS in Iraq. Where they were both offering significant security assistance to the Maliki government, and where there was a briefly some talk even from US congressional leaders about this being something that the US and the Iranians could coordinate on.
By coordination what they really meant was deconfliction. Not getting in each other’s ways. And both providing assistance to the Iraqi government. And particularly pushing the political process in the same direction. In other words, that the politics in Iraq need to align before any formal security offensive can restore government control to northern Iraq. Unless the Kurds, the Sunnis, and the Shia are on-board, then no amount of military operations can restore the country back into the shape it was before June. And that’s something the US and the Iranians do agree on. And they have both pushed in the direction of removing prime minister Nouri Al Maliki.
However, when it comes to security assistance to Iraq, the US and the Iranians are pushing in very different directions really. It looks like the start point might be the same, but the end points are very different.
The US is pushing for an integrated political military approach that draws the Sunnis back into power sharing in Iraq and that makes maximum use of intelligence and co-option and targeted use of force. The Iranians are pushing for the Syria solution, which is extensive use of artillery, air power, extensive use of Shia militias and to smash and crush the Sunni insurgency.
So, I’ve detected in the weeks after the uprising in Iraq that the US and the Iranians are have actually started to move in very different directions.
The National: And does Maliki have a chance to stay in power? Will he be able to find the support from other Shiite leaders in Iraq in order to remain as prime minister?
Knights: Maliki does stand a very high chance of being removed. I’d say maybe 80 per cent plus chance of being removed during this crisis. Because the other Shia factions recognise, and the Iranians, I think, and the Shia religious establishment in Najaf, recognise that the ascendancy of the Shia is under threat. Because his guys have not just delivered. Because he uses the wrong generals. Because he wants to concentrate power on himself and spends most of his time thinking about how to keep himself in power, not how to necessarily serve the Shia’s overall interests in Iraq.
The National: Finally, now that the US is sending more troops to Iraq, flying drones over the country, and preparing to send more money to moderate rebels fighting in Syria, do you see this as the beginning of the US getting more widely involved military in the Middle East again? Do you think there will be more of a push to stay in the region?
Knights: I do this as being the start of a new wave of US military activism in the Middle East. Of course, the Obama administration wanted to banish the Middle East to the past. And many US administrations have wanted the same thing for the same good reasons. The Middle East does need a moderating influence. And the US has undertaken the role of honest broker in many Middle Eastern conflicts. The invasion of Iraq was a game changing event, but that doesn’t mean that the US has no role in the Middle East going forward. It means what reasonable analysts I think have concluded is any intervention the US makes in the Middle East needs to be carefully thought out and there needs to be an exit plan.
The US is now going to be strongly involved in Iraq as a counter-terrorism partner, in the same way that it has been strongly involved in Yemen as a counterterrorism partner, or in Ethiopia, or in a number of other locations around the region. That makes sense because really the good war that president Obama always wanted to fight was the war against Al Qaeda and its affiliate movements. When that war shifted in part from Afghanistan/Pakistan to Yemen he undertook greater numbers of military operations and greater security assistance to the Yemeni government. And this is what we are seeing in Iraq now.
foreign.desk@thenationl.ae
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more from Janine di Giovanni
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How to play the stock market recovery in 2021?
If you are looking to build your long-term wealth in 2021 and beyond, the stock market is still the best place to do it as equities powered on despite the pandemic.
Investing in individual stocks is not for everyone and most private investors should stick to mutual funds and ETFs, but there are some thrilling opportunities for those who understand the risks.
Peter Garnry, head of equity strategy at Saxo Bank, says the 20 best-performing US and European stocks have delivered an average return year-to-date of 148 per cent, measured in local currency terms.
Online marketplace Etsy was the best performer with a return of 330.6 per cent, followed by communications software company Sinch (315.4 per cent), online supermarket HelloFresh (232.8 per cent) and fuel cells specialist NEL (191.7 per cent).
Mr Garnry says digital companies benefited from the lockdown, while green energy firms flew as efforts to combat climate change were ramped up, helped in part by the European Union’s green deal.
Electric car company Tesla would be on the list if it had been part of the S&P 500 Index, but it only joined on December 21. “Tesla has become one of the most valuable companies in the world this year as demand for electric vehicles has grown dramatically,” Mr Garnry says.
By contrast, the 20 worst-performing European stocks fell 54 per cent on average, with European banks hit by the economic fallout from the pandemic, while cruise liners and airline stocks suffered due to travel restrictions.
As demand for energy fell, the oil and gas industry had a tough year, too.
Mr Garnry says the biggest story this year was the “absolute crunch” in so-called value stocks, companies that trade at low valuations compared to their earnings and growth potential.
He says they are “heavily tilted towards financials, miners, energy, utilities and industrials, which have all been hit hard by the Covid-19 pandemic”. “The last year saw these cheap stocks become cheaper and expensive stocks have become more expensive.”
This has triggered excited talk about the “great value rotation” but Mr Garnry remains sceptical. “We need to see a breakout of interest rates combined with higher inflation before we join the crowd.”
Always remember that past performance is not a guarantee of future returns. Last year’s winners often turn out to be this year’s losers, and vice-versa.
Moon Music
Artist: Coldplay
Label: Parlophone/Atlantic
Number of tracks: 10
Rating: 3/5
MATCH INFO
Manchester United v Manchester City, Wednesday, 11pm (UAE)
Match is on BeIN Sports
A%20QUIET%20PLACE
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Company%20Profile
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: HyperSpace
Started: 2020
Founders: Alexander Heller, Rama Allen and Desi Gonzalez
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: Entertainment
Number of staff: 210
Investment raised: $75 million from investors including Galaxy Interactive, Riyadh Season, Sega Ventures and Apis Venture Partners
Company%20Profile
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What is a Ponzi scheme?
A fraudulent investment operation where the scammer provides fake reports and generates returns for old investors through money paid by new investors, rather than through ligitimate business activities.
The specs
Engine: 1.5-litre turbo
Power: 181hp
Torque: 230Nm
Transmission: 6-speed automatic
Starting price: Dh79,000
On sale: Now
AIDA%20RETURNS
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How to protect yourself when air quality drops
Install an air filter in your home.
Close your windows and turn on the AC.
Shower or bath after being outside.
Wear a face mask.
Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.
If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.
APPLE IPAD MINI (A17 PRO)
Display: 21cm Liquid Retina Display, 2266 x 1488, 326ppi, 500 nits
Chip: Apple A17 Pro, 6-core CPU, 5-core GPU, 16-core Neural Engine
Storage: 128/256/512GB
Main camera: 12MP wide, f/1.8, digital zoom up to 5x, Smart HDR 4
Front camera: 12MP ultra-wide, f/2.4, Smart HDR 4, full-HD @ 25/30/60fps
Biometrics: Touch ID, Face ID
Colours: Blue, purple, space grey, starlight
In the box: iPad mini, USB-C cable, 20W USB-C power adapter
Price: From Dh2,099
The Transfiguration
Director: Michael O’Shea
Starring: Eric Ruffin, Chloe Levine
Three stars
The biog
Favourite food: Tabbouleh, greek salad and sushi
Favourite TV show: That 70s Show
Favourite animal: Ferrets, they are smart, sensitive, playful and loving
Favourite holiday destination: Seychelles, my resolution for 2020 is to visit as many spiritual retreats and animal shelters across the world as I can
Name of first pet: Eddy, a Persian cat that showed up at our home
Favourite dog breed: I love them all - if I had to pick Yorkshire terrier for small dogs and St Bernard's for big
'Ghostbusters: From Beyond'
Director: Jason Reitman
Starring: Paul Rudd, Carrie Coon, Finn Wolfhard, Mckenna Grace
Rating: 2/5
MATCH INFO
France 3
Umtiti (8'), Griezmann (29' pen), Dembele (63')
Italy 1
Bonucci (36')
The 24-man squad:
Goalkeepers: Thibaut Courtois (Chelsea), Simon Mignolet (Liverpool), Koen Casteels (VfL Wolfsburg).
Defenders: Toby Alderweireld (Tottenham), Thomas Meunier (Paris Saint-Germain), Thomas Vermaelen (Barcelona), Jan Vertonghen (Tottenham), Dedryck Boyata (Celtic), Vincent Kompany (Manchester City).
Midfielders: Marouane Fellaini (Manchester United), Axel Witsel (Tianjin Quanjian), Kevin De Bruyne (Manchester City), Eden Hazard (Chelsea), Nacer Chadli (West Bromwich Albion), Leander Dendoncker (Anderlecht), Thorgan Hazard (Borussia Moenchengladbach), Youri Tielemans (Monaco), Mousa Dembele (Tottenham Hotspur).
Forwards: Michy Batshuayi (Chelsea/Dortmund), Yannick Carrasco (Dalian Yifang), Adnan Januzaj (Real Sociedad), Romelu Lukaku (Manchester United), Dries Mertens (Napoli).
Standby player: Laurent Ciman (Los Angeles FC).
A cryptocurrency primer for beginners
Cryptocurrency Investing for Dummies – by Kiana Danial
There are several primers for investing in cryptocurrencies available online, including e-books written by people whose credentials fall apart on the second page of your preferred search engine.
Ms Danial is a finance coach and former currency analyst who writes for Nasdaq. Her broad-strokes primer (2019) breaks down investing in cryptocurrency into baby steps, while explaining the terms and technologies involved.
Although cryptocurrencies are a fast evolving world, this book offers a good insight into the game as well as providing some basic tips, strategies and warning signs.
Begin your cryptocurrency journey here.
Available at Magrudy’s , Dh104
MATCH INFO
World Cup qualifier
Thailand 2 (Dangda 26', Panya 51')
UAE 1 (Mabkhout 45 2')
Singham Again
Director: Rohit Shetty
Stars: Ajay Devgn, Kareena Kapoor Khan, Ranveer Singh, Akshay Kumar, Tiger Shroff, Deepika Padukone
Rating: 3/5
Our family matters legal consultant
Name: Dr Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
Tree of Hell
Starring: Raed Zeno, Hadi Awada, Dr Mohammad Abdalla
Director: Raed Zeno
Rating: 4/5
THE SIXTH SENSE
Starring: Bruce Willis, Toni Collette, Hayley Joel Osment
Director: M. Night Shyamalan
Rating: 5/5
Cricket World Cup League 2
UAE squad
Rahul Chopra (captain), Aayan Afzal Khan, Ali Naseer, Aryansh Sharma, Basil Hameed, Dhruv Parashar, Junaid Siddique, Muhammad Farooq, Muhammad Jawadullah, Muhammad Waseem, Omid Rahman, Rahul Bhatia, Tanish Suri, Vishnu Sukumaran, Vriitya Aravind
Fixtures
Friday, November 1 – Oman v UAE
Sunday, November 3 – UAE v Netherlands
Thursday, November 7 – UAE v Oman
Saturday, November 9 – Netherlands v UAE
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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SERIES INFO
Afghanistan v Zimbabwe, Abu Dhabi Sunshine Series
All matches at the Zayed Cricket Stadium, Abu Dhabi
Test series
1st Test: Zimbabwe beat Afghanistan by 10 wickets
2nd Test: Wednesday, 10 March – Sunday, 14 March
Play starts at 9.30am
T20 series
1st T20I: Wednesday, 17 March
2nd T20I: Friday, 19 March
3rd T20I: Saturday, 20 March
TV
Supporters in the UAE can watch the matches on the Rabbithole channel on YouTube
THE SPECS
Engine: 1.5-litre
Transmission: 6-speed automatic
Power: 110 horsepower
Torque: 147Nm
Price: From Dh59,700
On sale: now
SPEC%20SHEET
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RESULT
Valencia 3
Kevin Gameiro 21', 51'
Ferran Torres 67'
Atlanta 4
Josip Llicic 3' (P), 43' (P), 71', 82'
The specs: Volvo XC40
Price: base / as tested: Dh185,000
Engine: 2.0-litre, turbocharged in-line four-cylinder
Gearbox: Eight-speed automatic
Power: 250hp @ 5,500rpm
Torque: 350Nm @ 1,500rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 10.4L / 100km
Voy!%20Voy!%20Voy!
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Cry Macho
Director: Clint Eastwood
Stars: Clint Eastwood, Dwight Yoakam
Rating:**
Score
New Zealand 266 for 9 in 50 overs
Pakistan 219 all out in 47.2 overs
New Zealand win by 47 runs
New Zealand lead three-match ODI series 1-0
Next match: Zayed Cricket Stadium, Abu Dhabi, Friday