Military threats will bind Pakistan and China together



This year Pakistan has held three joint military training exercises with China. Two of them were in the Chinese province of Xinjiang, but the one this month was a new development. A brigade-level exercise was conducted in Pakistan's portion of the Rajasthan desert, barely 25 kilometres from the border near the Indian town of Jaisalmer, where the Indian lines of communication to the south are very vulnerable.

Predictably, the exercise caused considerable concern in New Delhi.

It follows a pattern of China's extended influence in the area. Last year during a trip to Kabul, Pakistan's Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani suggested to Afghanistan's President Hamid Karzai that he should start looking to Beijing rather than Washington for the future.

Since then, US-Pakistan relations have seriously soured and increasingly Pakistan is looking to China for the military support being denied by the United States. Islamabad's friendship with Beijing has been a constant for decades, unlike its turbulent relations with Washington, including joint ventures in military technology.

The most surprising recent development was China's warning to the United States following the May 2 incursion by US troops to execute Osama bin Laden. Later that month Beijing stated that "an attack on Pakistan will be construed as an attack on China". So what explains this aggressive stance by a country that has been known for a cautious foreign policy?

There can be little doubt that China is projecting power farther abroad than it has in recent decades. In South Asia, a key component of that strategy is the commercial corridor from western China to Gwadar Port in Pakistan's Balochistan province. As the recent military exercises show, there also has been a deepening Chinese-Pakistani military relationship.

This is in response to a changing regional security situation. In recent years, the most serious threats confronting Pakistan's military have been internal, including domestic terrorism and civil strife such as the recent violence in Karachi. There is virtually no apprehension of a military threat from India in the immediate future.

But both Islamabad and Beijing are conscious that the Indian military force structure is, and is likely to remain, Pakistan-specific for many years to come. In Rajasthan there are mutual vulnerabilities. If Indian lines of control are exposed at Jaisalmer, Pakistan is more vulnerable at the district capital of Rahim Yar Khan. The joint exercise was intended to send a message that, conscious of its own vulnerability, Pakistan could exploit a similar weakness in India's lines of communication.

Although Chinese participation was limited to an engineering regiment, the first known joint manoeuvre near the Indian border demonstrated Beijing's role in this balance of power. This was the first show of joint operational readiness inside Pakistan, but there are already Chinese soldiers in Gilgit in the north, working on the Karakorum Highway. Economic and development cooperation has a long track record.

Gwadar Port is a good reflection of how that collaboration fits into recent geo-strategic developments. Most trade will probably flow north to south, but a new commercial corridor also opens important energy options, not least of all by connecting Iranian energy resources to China.

From China's eastern ports, access to the Indian Ocean from the Pacific is a lengthy route via the straits of Malacca and the entire route is peppered with US naval bases. On the other hand, there is no US threat on the road to Gwadar.

By some accounts, Beijing contributed 80 per cent of the funding to develop Gwadar's port and city, although there have been questions recently about direct Chinese control of operations. If in the not-so-distant future China establishes a naval presence there, it could project power over Gulf oil trade routes and provide multiple avenues of military influence.

No wonder that Pakistan has become an indispensable strategic partner for China, even to the extent of the warning to the United States about a mutual defence policy. And because Gwadar is situated in Balochistan, where several foreign forces are stoking unrest, the relationship is likely to continue to include a security component. However, it is also important to note that instability in Balochistan is fundamentally caused by the ineptitude, corruption and callousness of Pakistan's political elite, which remain indifferent to the concerns of the Baloch people. After all, unrest can only be stoked if it already exists.

But for all of its other challenges, Pakistan's strategic location in this new geo-strategic balance will probably benefit it in the long term. The challenge is to stem the internal bleeding in the interim.

Brig Gen Shaukat Qadir is a retired Pakistani infantry officer

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'My Son'

Director: Christian Carion

Starring: James McAvoy, Claire Foy, Tom Cullen, Gary Lewis

Rating: 2/5

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The Owo building is 14 storeys high, seven of which are below ground, with the 30,000 square feet of amenities located subterranean, including a 16-seat private cinema, seven lounges, a gym, games room, treatment suites and bicycle storage.

A clear distinction between the residences and the Raffles hotel with the amenities operated separately.

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7.45pm: Firebreak Stakes – Group 3 (TB) $150,000 (D) 1,600m
Winner: Hypothetical, Mickael Barzalona, Salem bin Ghadayer

8.20pm: Al Maktoum Challenge Round-2 – Group 2 (TB) $350,000 (D) 1,900m
Winner: Hot Rod Charlie, William Buick, Doug O’Neill

8.55pm: Al Bastakiya Trial – Conditions (TB) $60,000 (D) 1,900m
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9.30pm: Balanchine – Group 2 (TB) $180,000 (T) 1,800m
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Stars: Cate Blanchett, Kevin Kline, Lesley Manville 

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Saturday RB Leipzig v Hertha Berlin (5.30pm)

Mainz v Borussia Monchengladbach (5.30pm)

Bayern Munich v Eintracht Frankfurt (5.30pm)

Union Berlin v SC Freiburg (5.30pm)

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Sunday Wolfsburg v Arminia (6.30pm)

Werder Bremen v Hoffenheim (9pm)

Bayer Leverkusen v Augsburg (11.30pm)

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How to invest in gold

Investors can tap into the gold price by purchasing physical jewellery, coins and even gold bars, but these need to be stored safely and possibly insured.

A cheaper and more straightforward way to benefit from gold price growth is to buy an exchange-traded fund (ETF).

Most advisers suggest sticking to “physical” ETFs. These hold actual gold bullion, bars and coins in a vault on investors’ behalf. Others do not hold gold but use derivatives to track the price instead, adding an extra layer of risk. The two biggest physical gold ETFs are SPDR Gold Trust and iShares Gold Trust.

Another way to invest in gold’s success is to buy gold mining stocks, but Mr Gravier says this brings added risks and can be more volatile. “They have a serious downside potential should the price consolidate.”

Mr Kyprianou says gold and gold miners are two different asset classes. “One is a commodity and the other is a company stock, which means they behave differently.”

Mining companies are a business, susceptible to other market forces, such as worker availability, health and safety, strikes, debt levels, and so on. “These have nothing to do with gold at all. It means that some companies will survive, others won’t.”

By contrast, when gold is mined, it just sits in a vault. “It doesn’t even rust, which means it retains its value,” Mr Kyprianou says.

You may already have exposure to gold miners in your portfolio, say, through an international ETF or actively managed mutual fund.

You could spread this risk with an actively managed fund that invests in a spread of gold miners, with the best known being BlackRock Gold & General. It is up an incredible 55 per cent over the past year, and 240 per cent over five years. As always, past performance is no guide to the future.

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How to play the stock market recovery in 2021?

If you are looking to build your long-term wealth in 2021 and beyond, the stock market is still the best place to do it as equities powered on despite the pandemic.

Investing in individual stocks is not for everyone and most private investors should stick to mutual funds and ETFs, but there are some thrilling opportunities for those who understand the risks.

Peter Garnry, head of equity strategy at Saxo Bank, says the 20 best-performing US and European stocks have delivered an average return year-to-date of 148 per cent, measured in local currency terms.

Online marketplace Etsy was the best performer with a return of 330.6 per cent, followed by communications software company Sinch (315.4 per cent), online supermarket HelloFresh (232.8 per cent) and fuel cells specialist NEL (191.7 per cent).

Mr Garnry says digital companies benefited from the lockdown, while green energy firms flew as efforts to combat climate change were ramped up, helped in part by the European Union’s green deal. 

Electric car company Tesla would be on the list if it had been part of the S&P 500 Index, but it only joined on December 21. “Tesla has become one of the most valuable companies in the world this year as demand for electric vehicles has grown dramatically,” Mr Garnry says.

By contrast, the 20 worst-performing European stocks fell 54 per cent on average, with European banks hit by the economic fallout from the pandemic, while cruise liners and airline stocks suffered due to travel restrictions.

As demand for energy fell, the oil and gas industry had a tough year, too.

Mr Garnry says the biggest story this year was the “absolute crunch” in so-called value stocks, companies that trade at low valuations compared to their earnings and growth potential.

He says they are “heavily tilted towards financials, miners, energy, utilities and industrials, which have all been hit hard by the Covid-19 pandemic”. “The last year saw these cheap stocks become cheaper and expensive stocks have become more expensive.” 

This has triggered excited talk about the “great value rotation” but Mr Garnry remains sceptical. “We need to see a breakout of interest rates combined with higher inflation before we join the crowd.”

Always remember that past performance is not a guarantee of future returns. Last year’s winners often turn out to be this year’s losers, and vice-versa.

Nayanthara: Beyond The Fairy Tale

Starring: Nayanthara, Vignesh Shivan, Radhika Sarathkumar, Nagarjuna Akkineni

Director: Amith Krishnan

Rating: 3.5/5

Singham Again

Director: Rohit Shetty

Stars: Ajay Devgn, Kareena Kapoor Khan, Ranveer Singh, Akshay Kumar, Tiger Shroff, Deepika Padukone

Rating: 3/5

Sanju

Produced: Vidhu Vinod Chopra, Rajkumar Hirani

Director: Rajkumar Hirani

Cast: Ranbir Kapoor, Vicky Kaushal, Paresh Rawal, Anushka Sharma, Manish’s Koirala, Dia Mirza, Sonam Kapoor, Jim Sarbh, Boman Irani

Rating: 3.5 stars

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