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The possibility that Hamas could be removed from its base in Qatar has raised pressure on the Iran-backed group as the US prepares for the transition to the administration of Donald Trump, who is seen as particularly pro-Israeli. But no one is betting that Hamas will soon be finished, having dominated Gaza and its society for almost two decades.
Qatar, whose interlocutor roles underpin its international stature, has dismissed but did not deny reports that it has asked senior Hamas figure Khaled Meshaal and other political leaders of the group to leave within a month. Hamas moved to Qatar after falling out with Syrian President Bashar Al Assad over the suppression of the 2011 revolt against his rule.
Regional and US officials said Washington has asked Qatar to expel Hamas after the militants rejected repeated offers of a ceasefire, the latest of which was shortly before the US election. The proposal was based on releasing about 100 Israeli hostages still held by Hamas and a partial Israeli military drawdown. The group turned down the offer, citing a lack of permanent withdrawal among other objections.
Removing Hamas from Qatar would deprive the group of a sanctuary in a moderate Arab state with connections to both Iran, Hamas's most powerful supporter, and the West.
Hazem Ayyad, a prominent Jordanian political researcher, said Israel was behind the US request, as part of its efforts to further "push Hamas against the wall". He warned, however, that ejecting the group is in the interest of neither Washington nor Qatar.
Iraq, Iran, Algeria and Yemen have been touted as possible new bases for Mr Meshaal and other senior Hamas officials.
"Hamas has gotten used to Qatar and has been comfortable [operating] there," Mr Ayyad said. "Qatar has also allowed easy US access to Hamas. If Hamas is gone from Qatar, it will be also unsuitable for the other parties. Who will Washington talk to about the 100 hostages and about its plans for the day after in Gaza?"
He predicted Qatar will try to play for time in meeting the US request until Mr Trump takes power in January. "The Hamas card gives Qatar [diplomatic] weight," he said. "They don't want to be without it when Trump comes and they sit with him on the table."
In rare criticism of Hamas by a public figure from Gaza, Islamic scholar Salman Al Dayeh said the group's attacks on Israel on October 7, 2023, had breached basic principles of Islam and should have been avoided.
Mr Ayyad said that although the humanitarian suffering in Gaza had undermined Hamas, wiping out the group's military wing remains extremely difficult because as long as it "has a social incubator, it will keep firing and will remain alive".
The Gaza war, now in its 14th month, has destabilised the Middle East, expanding into Lebanon and raising the risk of sustained, direct hostilities between Israel and Iran. The war started in October last year after Hamas and other Palestinian groups supported by Tehran killed 1,200 people in attacks on Israel. Health officials in Gaza say more than 43,500 people in Gaza have been killed in the subsequent Israeli invasion.
The war also affected the US election, with President-elect Donald Trump accusing the current Joe Biden administration of wavering in its support for Israel as it fights two wars, in Gaza and in Lebanon. In his first presidency, Mr Trump mediated a resumption of Arab relations with Israel, including a role in the 2020 Abraham Accords.
But his Middle East peace plan, which proposed economic benefits but little in the way of statehood, was rejected by both the religious Hamas and the secular, western-backed Palestinian Liberation Organisation, which is headed by President Mahmoud Abbas and controls the Palestinian Administration in the Israeli-occupied West Bank.
One European diplomat who has travelled repeatedly to Israel and the Palestinian territories this year said the election of Mr Trump deprives Hamas of "good options" if it leaves Qatar.
Turkey would not want to antagonise the new president, having diluted its anti-US rhetoric before the elections in case Mr Trump won, he said. Iraq's Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al Sudani wants to shed his government's links with Iran's proxy militias. Yemen's Houthis would be of "no use" to Hamas because of their isolation.
"Algeria is the only country with enough connections to negotiate on behalf of Hamas, but barely," the diplomat said.
ENGLAND SQUAD
Joe Root (c), Moeen Ali, Jimmy Anderson, Jonny Bairstow, Stuart Broad, Jos Buttler, Alastair Cook, Sam Curran, Keaton Jennings, Ollie Pope, Adil Rashid, Ben Stokes, James Vince, Chris Woakes
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The Sand Castle
Director: Matty Brown
Stars: Nadine Labaki, Ziad Bakri, Zain Al Rafeea, Riman Al Rafeea
Rating: 2.5/5
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Dubai Bling season three
Cast: Loujain Adada, Zeina Khoury, Farhana Bodi, Ebraheem Al Samadi, Mona Kattan, and couples Safa & Fahad Siddiqui and DJ Bliss & Danya Mohammed
Rating: 1/5
From Zero
Artist: Linkin Park
Label: Warner Records
Number of tracks: 11
Rating: 4/5
The Sky Is Pink
Director: Shonali Bose
Cast: Priyanka Chopra Jonas, Farhan Akhtar, Zaira Wasim, Rohit Saraf
Three stars
Crops that could be introduced to the UAE
1: Quinoa
2. Bathua
3. Amaranth
4. Pearl and finger millet
5. Sorghum
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
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Formula Middle East Calendar (Formula Regional and Formula 4)
Round 1: January 17-19, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 2: January 22-23, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 3: February 7-9, Dubai Autodrome – Dubai
Round 4: February 14-16, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 5: February 25-27, Jeddah Corniche Circuit – Saudi Arabia
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Almnssa
Started: August 2020
Founder: Areej Selmi
Based: Gaza
Sectors: Internet, e-commerce
Investments: Grants/private funding
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Director: Kangana Ranaut
Stars: Kangana Ranaut, Anupam Kher, Shreyas Talpade, Milind Soman, Mahima Chaudhry
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What it means to be a conservationist
Who is Enric Sala?
Enric Sala is an expert on marine conservation and is currently the National Geographic Society's Explorer-in-Residence. His love of the sea started with his childhood in Spain, inspired by the example of the legendary diver Jacques Cousteau. He has been a university professor of Oceanography in the US, as well as working at the Spanish National Council for Scientific Research and is a member of the World Economic Forum’s Global Future Council on Biodiversity and the Bio-Economy. He has dedicated his life to protecting life in the oceans. Enric describes himself as a flexitarian who only eats meat occasionally.
What is biodiversity?
According to the United Nations Environment Programme, all life on earth – including in its forests and oceans – forms a “rich tapestry of interconnecting and interdependent forces”. Biodiversity on earth today is the product of four billion years of evolution and consists of many millions of distinct biological species. The term ‘biodiversity’ is relatively new, popularised since the 1980s and coinciding with an understanding of the growing threats to the natural world including habitat loss, pollution and climate change. The loss of biodiversity itself is dangerous because it contributes to clean, consistent water flows, food security, protection from floods and storms and a stable climate. The natural world can be an ally in combating global climate change but to do so it must be protected. Nations are working to achieve this, including setting targets to be reached by 2020 for the protection of the natural state of 17 per cent of the land and 10 per cent of the oceans. However, these are well short of what is needed, according to experts, with half the land needed to be in a natural state to help avert disaster.
The Land between Two Rivers: Writing in an Age of Refugees
Tom Sleigh, Graywolf Press
