As Nato leaders assemble in Washington a leading military historian has warned that after 75 years of peace and prosperity there is growing reluctance among Europe’s youth to risk their lives defending their lifestyles.
Prof Richard Overy, one of the world’s leading authors on military history, has told The National that despite human advances, Europeans need to adjust to a new era of conscription, driven by the return of warfare between its states.
“In continental Europe young people view things differently as they've got a lot to lose,” said Prof Overy. “Military life is not built into the community the way it was in 1914 [at the outbreak of the First World War] and it will be very difficult to mobilise that kind of commitment for it again, but it is something that a lot are going to be asked to do.”
The academic predicts that on current trends, European capitals will struggle to get enough western young people to agree to conscription to deter the Russia threat, with his new book concluding that mankind will continue to fight wars indefinitely.
“We're still living in an age where war is one of the options that states reach for now and in the future,” he added.
In his latest book Why War?, the writer has become the first historian to delve into the causes of conflict between humans which has been occurring for at least the past 100,000 years.
Return of conscription
With the rapid rearming of Nato to deter Russia at the top of the Washington agenda, many countries in Europe are now looking to reinforce their depleted armies by reintroducing conscription.
Germany is close to bringing back the draft for the first time since 2011 to increase its armed forces from 181,000 to 203,000 and Britain’s Conservative Party had promised the first cohort of national service for 18-year-olds since 1960 if it had been re-elected.
Caveman warriors
The necessity for today’s armies stems from humans' inability to live in peaceful coexistence almost since the dawn of sentience.
Understanding the inclination to conflict is “tangled in wave after wave of inter-human fighting from as far back as we have records” which is why it will be part of our future as well as our past, the scholar writes in his highly absorbing and originally argued Why War?
While humans have often “forsworn war” following its appalling consequences, new circumstances always emerge that make it “inevitable or even desirable” and seemingly “a legitimate option”.
Humans have proven to be a belligerent species, with lethal intergroup violence evident since even since the Pleistocene era more than 12,000 years ago, before Homo sapiens dominated the world.
It almost certainly goes even further back with the discovery of hominin bones in Spain from 800,000 years that revealed 11 victims of cannibalism as “the earliest known evidence of warfare”.
More advanced warfare is found in remains from the Neolithic era, about 7,000 BCE, showing arrowheads lodged in vertebrae, crushed skulls, and decapitated skeletons.
Violence employed
The causes of war since ancient times are explored with the main motivation being the competition for resources, whether this is “seizing women from a neighbouring tribe” or expanding territory.
“That means when you face a particular danger or local resources drying up, in order for your community to survive you have to at times employ violence,” Prof Overy said.
As society evolved, a “sophisticated psychology” then emerged in which a solution to a problem or resources involved an outcome where “war becomes a permanent feature for humans”.
In the modern era, explored in his final chapter, Security, it concludes that the most important cause is when people are insecure, scared or frustrated and “the trigger point is so often the frontier between states, peoples and tribes”, he said.
That border, either in Gaza or Ukraine, is the permanent “unstable phenomenon” and “Israel’s fundamental insecurity means that its frontiers are always going to be a point of tension or conflict.”
While the professor believes that the likelihood of a Russian invasion of Europe is “greatly exaggerated” after 80 years of peace in Europe, young people know “they've got a lot to lose” by fighting and potentially dying in a war.
But crises were “unpredictable” and may well emerge over the course of this century “in which people suddenly realise that they have a responsibility to take part”.
He suggested that once soldiers are mobilised on to the front line they always find a way to “rationalise why you're there and that happens in every war situation”.
Deeply embedded
Although not biologically hard-wired to wage wars, mankind is likely to continue to do so indefinitely, as Prof Overy's “pessimistic conclusion” in the book is that war “is deeply embedded in the way in which the human species has developed”.
“And indeed, that's what evolutionary biologists and psychologists now argue, it is deeply embedded,” he writes. “It's not something that's just been invented to satisfy politicians.”
With a nod to the psychology behind warfare, the book’s title comes from letters between Albert Einstein and Sigmund Freud, in which they discussed whether there was a way of “delivering mankind from the menace of war”. Freud’s answer was “no”.
The capability of nuclear weapons to kill “tens of millions of people quickly and in grotesque ways” has deterred large-scale modern wars, said the 76-year-old historian, who began writing the book just before Russia invaded Ukraine.
With Russian President Vladimir Putin threatening nuclear strikes, Prof Overy warned of an escalation to nuclear confrontation but the hope was that “once you get to the dangerous part, you step back”.
However, conflicts such as those in Israel or Ukraine can easily intensify in violence that weakens people’s boundaries against bloodshed.
“Wars of the recent past start small then suddenly, other parties get dragged in, the war escalates and rapidly you reach all kinds of thresholds which allow you to bomb a city flat, when you would not have thought about doing that before the war started.”
The unpredictable individual
While humans might evolve to a point where wars become less likely, an inevitable but unpredictable outcome was the sudden rise of an individual going to war and unalterably shaping history.
The danger was that they appeared usually from modest backgrounds, which perhaps impels them to use their power for extreme ends.
“I was very struck that the one thing you can't really talk about theoretically is the individual who suddenly takes history by the scruff of the neck and shakes it violently,” said Prof Overy.
“This is the one we can't predict and may indeed happen again, the rise of somebody from very humble beginnings who manages to win a widespread following, and then embarks on a programme of extraordinary widespread and destructive warfare.”
Napoleon was a “grumbling, young recruit” who went to become emperor of France and conqueror of Europe. Genghis Khan, who violently swept all before him from Mongolia nearly to the heart of Europe had been a poor herder.
“And who would have predicted that Hitler became dictator of Germany and would wage a devastating world war?”
Mr Putin was not in that category as his actions were more predictable as he had been a “warmonger for most of his career”.
''Why War?' (Pelican Books, £20) by Richard Overy is available now in hardback.
Classification of skills
A worker is categorised as skilled by the MOHRE based on nine levels given in the International Standard Classification of Occupations (ISCO) issued by the International Labour Organisation.
A skilled worker would be someone at a professional level (levels 1 – 5) which includes managers, professionals, technicians and associate professionals, clerical support workers, and service and sales workers.
The worker must also have an attested educational certificate higher than secondary or an equivalent certification, and earn a monthly salary of at least Dh4,000.
Labour dispute
The insured employee may still file an ILOE claim even if a labour dispute is ongoing post termination, but the insurer may suspend or reject payment, until the courts resolve the dispute, especially if the reason for termination is contested. The outcome of the labour court proceedings can directly affect eligibility.
- Abdullah Ishnaneh, Partner, BSA Law
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Other acts on the Jazz Garden bill
Sharrie Williams
The American singer is hugely respected in blues circles due to her passionate vocals and songwriting. Born and raised in Michigan, Williams began recording and touring as a teenage gospel singer. Her career took off with the blues band The Wiseguys. Such was the acclaim of their live shows that they toured throughout Europe and in Africa. As a solo artist, Williams has also collaborated with the likes of the late Dizzy Gillespie, Van Morrison and Mavis Staples.
Lin Rountree
An accomplished smooth jazz artist who blends his chilled approach with R‘n’B. Trained at the Duke Ellington School of the Arts in Washington, DC, Rountree formed his own band in 2004. He has also recorded with the likes of Kem, Dwele and Conya Doss. He comes to Dubai on the back of his new single Pass The Groove, from his forthcoming 2018 album Stronger Still, which may follow his five previous solo albums in cracking the top 10 of the US jazz charts.
Anita Williams
Dubai-based singer Anita Williams will open the night with a set of covers and swing, jazz and blues standards that made her an in-demand singer across the emirate. The Irish singer has been performing in Dubai since 2008 at venues such as MusicHall and Voda Bar. Her Jazz Garden appearance is career highlight as she will use the event to perform the original song Big Blue Eyes, the single from her debut solo album, due for release soon.
Jetour T1 specs
Engine: 2-litre turbocharged
Power: 254hp
Torque: 390Nm
Price: From Dh126,000
Available: Now
TEACHERS' PAY - WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Pay varies significantly depending on the school, its rating and the curriculum. Here's a rough guide as of January 2021:
- top end schools tend to pay Dh16,000-17,000 a month - plus a monthly housing allowance of up to Dh6,000. These tend to be British curriculum schools rated 'outstanding' or 'very good', followed by American schools
- average salary across curriculums and skill levels is about Dh10,000, recruiters say
- it is becoming more common for schools to provide accommodation, sometimes in an apartment block with other teachers, rather than hand teachers a cash housing allowance
- some strong performing schools have cut back on salaries since the pandemic began, sometimes offering Dh16,000 including the housing allowance, which reflects the slump in rental costs, and sheer demand for jobs
- maths and science teachers are most in demand and some schools will pay up to Dh3,000 more than other teachers in recognition of their technical skills
- at the other end of the market, teachers in some Indian schools, where fees are lower and competition among applicants is intense, can be paid as low as Dh3,000 per month
- in Indian schools, it has also become common for teachers to share residential accommodation, living in a block with colleagues
The specs
AT4 Ultimate, as tested
Engine: 6.2-litre V8
Power: 420hp
Torque: 623Nm
Transmission: 10-speed automatic
Price: From Dh330,800 (Elevation: Dh236,400; AT4: Dh286,800; Denali: Dh345,800)
On sale: Now
THE SPECS
Engine: 3.5-litre V6
Transmission: six-speed manual
Power: 325bhp
Torque: 370Nm
Speed: 0-100km/h 3.9 seconds
Price: Dh230,000
On sale: now
MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League semi-final, first leg
Bayern Munich v Real Madrid
When: April 25, 10.45pm kick-off (UAE)
Where: Allianz Arena, Munich
Live: BeIN Sports HD
Second leg: May 1, Santiago Bernabeu, Madrid
Coffee: black death or elixir of life?
It is among the greatest health debates of our time; splashed across newspapers with contradicting headlines - is coffee good for you or not?
Depending on what you read, it is either a cancer-causing, sleep-depriving, stomach ulcer-inducing black death or the secret to long life, cutting the chance of stroke, diabetes and cancer.
The latest research - a study of 8,412 people across the UK who each underwent an MRI heart scan - is intended to put to bed (caffeine allowing) conflicting reports of the pros and cons of consumption.
The study, funded by the British Heart Foundation, contradicted previous findings that it stiffens arteries, putting pressure on the heart and increasing the likelihood of a heart attack or stroke, leading to warnings to cut down.
Numerous studies have recognised the benefits of coffee in cutting oral and esophageal cancer, the risk of a stroke and cirrhosis of the liver.
The benefits are often linked to biologically active compounds including caffeine, flavonoids, lignans, and other polyphenols, which benefit the body. These and othetr coffee compounds regulate genes involved in DNA repair, have anti-inflammatory properties and are associated with lower risk of insulin resistance, which is linked to type-2 diabetes.
But as doctors warn, too much of anything is inadvisable. The British Heart Foundation found the heaviest coffee drinkers in the study were most likely to be men who smoked and drank alcohol regularly.
Excessive amounts of coffee also unsettle the stomach causing or contributing to stomach ulcers. It also stains the teeth over time, hampers absorption of minerals and vitamins like zinc and iron.
It also raises blood pressure, which is largely problematic for people with existing conditions.
So the heaviest drinkers of the black stuff - some in the study had up to 25 cups per day - may want to rein it in.
Rory Reynolds
MATCH INFO
Norwich City 1 (Cantwell 75') Manchester United 2 (Aghalo 51' 118') After extra time.
Man of the match Harry Maguire (Manchester United)
Trump v Khan
2016: Feud begins after Khan criticised Trump’s proposed Muslim travel ban to US
2017: Trump criticises Khan’s ‘no reason to be alarmed’ response to London Bridge terror attacks
2019: Trump calls Khan a “stone cold loser” before first state visit
2019: Trump tweets about “Khan’s Londonistan”, calling him “a national disgrace”
2022: Khan’s office attributes rise in Islamophobic abuse against the major to hostility stoked during Trump’s presidency
July 2025 During a golfing trip to Scotland, Trump calls Khan “a nasty person”
Sept 2025 Trump blames Khan for London’s “stabbings and the dirt and the filth”.
Dec 2025 Trump suggests migrants got Khan elected, calls him a “horrible, vicious, disgusting mayor”
Various Artists
Habibi Funk: An Eclectic Selection Of Music From The Arab World (Habibi Funk)
Aston martin DBX specs
Engine: 4.0-litre twin-turbo V8
Transmission: nine-speed automatic
Power: 542bhp
Torque: 700Nm
Top speed: 291kph
Price: Dh848,000
On sale: Q2, 2020
Company%20profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EName%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20WallyGPT%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2014%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESaeid%20and%20Sami%20Hejazi%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dubai%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFinTech%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20raised%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E%247.1%20million%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20staff%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2020%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EPre-seed%20round%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Desert Warrior
Starring: Anthony Mackie, Aiysha Hart, Ben Kingsley
Director: Rupert Wyatt
Rating: 3/5
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
