View from London | The National

Hello from The National and welcome to the View from London – your weekly guide to the big stories from our London bureau We have spent the past few weeks inquiring deeply into the Houthi campaign of attacks on Red Sea shipping . After almost a year of US-led retaliatory air strikes and other military action, the Houthi operation has grown more sophisticated. The Iran-backed Yemeni outfit is certainly not withering under the pressure. There were 297 attacks on all shipping in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden by November 18, including on warships sent to protect merchant vessels. Of that number, there have been 133 verified attacks on commercial cargo ships, which includes some that were hit twice. The most recent attacks, which Houthis have claimed but monitors say are unverified, were against three vessels on November 30. The EU’s naval protection operation, named Aspides, has recorded 143 missile launches against ships and two dozen drone strikes. Houthi tactics have also evolved since the strikes began. These now include new tracking to home in on their prey. They have added a campaign of intimidation against ship owners, warning them against any ties with Israel, the US or the UK. A social media propaganda campaign pumping out content boasting about the attacks has grown unabated across a year of confrontation with the world's most sophisticated militaries. Europe, meanwhile, has been warned not to rush into sending refugees back to Syria as it considers its options for arranging returns after the fall of president Bashar Al Assad's regime . While all the militaries who have taken part in the operations are keen to emphasise their successes from the overwhelming firepower they’ve been able to send, others are less sure. A IISS report published this month says none of the military action has “seriously degraded the capability of the Houthis to launch attacks, nor to smuggle weapons from Iran and other countries”. Within Yemen, “the attacks against Israeli and western shipping have significantly strengthened the political position of the Houthis, despite their limited effect in military terms”. The UN believes that the Houthis themselves are earning $2.2 billion a year from shaking down ship operators. “The Houthis allegedly collected illegal fees from a few shipping agencies to allow their ships to sail through the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden without being attacked,” the UN report for the Security Council says, quoting anonymous sources. “The sources estimate the Houthis' earnings from these illegal safe-transit fees to be about $180 million per month.” Effortlessly slipping back into power is Jonathan Powell, the former Tony Blair chief of staff and now UK National Security Adviser. His pressing task is to help prevent Syria from sliding into the quagmire that marked the Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya experiences of western intervention. Mr Powell is on hand to help Keir Starmer with that challenge while also navigating Donald Trump’s presidency. As a middle-ranking military power, Britain’s armed forces, diplomatic elan and formidable intelligence services are still assets, but it will be Mr Powell's task to ensure these are left in better shape than he finds them. With Syria, Mr Powell will benefit from the feedback of director of the Middle East department Stephen Hickey and Ann Snow, the UK’s special representative to Syria, who have just met the HTS leader Ahmad Al Shara. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on Tuesday said that the EU would engage directly with Hayat Tahrir Al Sham, the rebel group that led the takeover of Damascus on December 7. “We have to step up and continue our direct engagement with HTS and other factions. We will enhance our engagement in early recovery, including basic services like electricity and water and infrastructure,” Ms von der Leyen said. Some EU countries such as The Netherlands have tied engagement with HTS to it expelling Russia from its military base in Hmeimim, in the coastal province of Latakia. Others, like Austria, have cautioned against setting red lines that may weaken European diplomacy. Holders of UK work visas make a substantially greater contribution to the public finances than the average British-born adult. Migration Advisory Committee figures show the average migrant living in the UK on a skilled worker visa made a positive “net fiscal impact” of £16,300 in 2022-2023, compared to just £800 for the average UK-born adult, it said in its annual report, published on Tuesday. That is principally because most skilled worker visa holders were of working age and pay tax. Almost two thirds, or 61 per cent of skilled workers, were aged between 30 and 49, while 99 per cent were between 20 and 69. The Conservative government changed the salary threshold for skilled workers , increasing it in increments from £26,200 a year to £38,700 from April, and to £30,960 for people under the age of 26, in a bid to cut net migration. Even so, the difference between the number of people arriving and leaving the country hit a record 906,000 in the 12 months to June 2023, about 166,000 higher than previously thought,