Assad clings on against all odds

Syrian president Bashar Al Assad has long been in denial about the extent of his losses, in terms of manpower and territory, in his country’s civil war. This week he was more frank, acknowledging a “lack of human resources” in the military, which is believed to have lost half its 300,000 strength due to deaths, defections and draft dodging. He also conceded that regime forces do not have the resources to regain the vast amounts of territory now controlled by rebel groups or ISIL militants. Yet, he remained defiant, denying that his regime is collapsing, asserting that “the word ‘defeat’ does not exist in the Syrian army’s dictionary”, while ruling out any chance of peace talks. It’s difficult to see this as anything other than tough talk from a man with his back against the wall.

In many ways, Mr Al Assad was telling us what we already knew. But, significantly, his speech was broadcast on Syrian national television – making it both his first public admission that things are not going his way and an attempt to rally a war-weary nation. Mr Al Assad, who has also recently announced a conditional amnesty for army deserters and those who have avoided conscription, has effectively acknowledged that the families of Syria are no longer prepared to sacrifice their sons to his war machine.

What is clear is that Mr Al Assad is not prepared to make any personal sacrifices, even as he demands more of his people. He is desperate to cling on to power in a vastly diminished nation, prepared only to protect those areas he considers to be “militarily, politically or economically important”. Presumably he is referring to Damascus, Homs and the strategic Tartus port.

Instead, he should recognise that the best thing he can do for his country is to stand aside. The instability Mr Al Assad has fostered and continues to foment favours only ISIL and other extremists. The way forward for Syria is anything but clear, but a coalition of peace comprising remnants of his government and members of the opposition is a much better option than any vision of the future that Mr Al Assad can now articulate.