Richard Javad Heydarian is a Manila-based academic, columnist and author
January 25, 2023
If there is one word that best captures the dominant theme at this year’s World Economic Forum in Davos, it is “polycrisis”. A new buzzword popularised by the British historian Adam Tooze, who gained world renown for his magisterial account of the 2007-2008 Great Recession, polycrisis refers to the unprecedented convergence of several crises with global consequences, thus undermining the efficacy of conventional policy paradigms.
In the past, the world had to contend with a single major crisis with global ramifications: think of, for instance, the First World War originating from Europe or the Great Recession from the Wall Street and subprime crisis in the US. In contrast, today we deal with crises ranging from the economic slowdown in China to Federal Reserve interest rate rises in the US and the impending recession in Europe amid the war in Ukraine. The upshot is the increasing difficulty of accurately forecasting the trajectory of the world economy, and broader global order, in the coming months and years.
When it comes to Asia, however, there are three big trendlines that will define the geopolitical landscape this year and beyond: the trajectory of Sino-American competition; Japan’s military build-up and growing co-operation with likeminded middle powers; and the role of non-aligned emerging powers such as India (this year’s G20 president) and Indonesia (this year’s Asean chairman).
By all indications, the US and China are not the same superpowers they used to be. Following decades of military interventions abroad, and growing political polarisation and economic imbalances at home, Washington no longer wields the same kind of full-spectrum hegemony on the global stage.
America’s share of the global economy has steadily shrunk over the past half century, while its military edge over rivals is gradually receding. On its part, China is now confronting a shrinking population as well as a slowing economy. The heady days of double-digit growth are now history, with the Asian juggernaut grappling with structural challenges such as rising wages, declining productivity, huge public debt, and a politically active middle class.
A Japan-US joint exercise in Gotemba, Japan. Getty Images
Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida rides on a Japan Ground Self-Defence Force Type 10 tank in November 2021. AP Photo
Before the end of this year, we may know if the US and China are in position to pursue 'coopetition' or are bound to be locked into a 'new Cold War'
If anything, China now risks falling into what economists describe as a middle-income trap, namely the struggle to sustain historically robust growth rates amid a difficult transition to a knowledge-based economy. As a result, leading emerging market experts such as Ruchir Sharma doubt whether China’s gross domestic product will catch up with that of the US before the end of this century.
Nevertheless, the US and China remain, by far, the world’s two most powerful nations in the Indo-Pacific region. According to the Lowy Institute Asia Power Index, which evaluates military, economic and diplomatic capabilities of all major regional nations, the overall power-influence scores of the US (82.2) and China (74.6) place them well ahead of their closest rivals such as Japan (38.7), India (37.7), Russia (33), and Australia (30.8).
After years of constant sabre-rattling, including as escalating trade war and growing military tensions in the Western Pacific, the two superpowers explored a detente in the G20 summit last November. But given the depth of geopolitical differences between them, it’s imperative that they double-down on institutionalised dialogue and constructive engagement in the coming months.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is expected to visit Beijing later this year in order to examine the parameters of co-operation and, if possible, a major reset in relations. A state visit either by US President Joe Biden or Chinese President Xi Jinping could follow through. This month, Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao underscored his country’s commitment to “continuously improve" relations with Washington, provided “the US side will take a correct view of the opportunities that China's development brings to the US and the world, and follow the direction set by the two heads of state to push China-US economic and trade relations back on track at an early date".
After a months-long hiatus, especially following former US House of Representatives speaker Nancy Pelosi’s controversial visit to Taiwan, the two powers have also resumed dialogue on climate change negotiations. It’s crucial for the two superpowers to fully restore, and accordingly expand, institutionalised channels of communications on other vital areas of concerns, including nuclear proliferation, terrorism and free trade.
Avoiding military confrontation over hotpsots such as the South China Sea and Taiwan will be a top priority. Before the end of this year, we will probably know whether the US and China are in position to pursue “coopetition” (co-operative competition) or are bound to be locked into a “new Cold War” for the foreseeable future.
The second major development to watch out for this year is the direction of Japan’s foreign and defence policy. Boasting the world’s third-largest economy, and equipped with one of the most modern armed forces in Asia, Japan will be vital to shaping the future of the Indo-Pacific region. Over the past month, Tokyo released a new National Security Strategy, which signals a more proactive defence policy with growing focus on “counter-strike” capabilities, including the development of sophisticated missile defence systems.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Indonesian President Joko Widodo during the G20 summit in Bali. AP Photo
Over the next five years, Japan is set to double its defence spending as a share of GDP, deploying a $315 billion budget to transform its Self Defence Forces for 21st-century warfare. Signalling growing independence from the US, it is also pursuing a next-generation fighter jet project, under the Global Combat Air Programme, with Italy and the UK. The country is also finalising defence agreements with Australia, Germany, the UK, Canada and other likeminded powers in order to enhance military interoperability and, accordingly, its capacity to project power across the Indo-Pacific.
Given its militaristic past, Japan’s military build-up is likely to trigger backlash in neighbouring countries such as China and South Korea. But much of the West and the Indo-Pacific region have either publicly or privately welcomed a more proactive foreign policy. If anything, the Japanese public is also increasingly supportive of revising the country’s post-Second World War pacifist constitution amid growing uncertainty in the regional geopolitical landscape.
The third major element that will shape Indo-Pacific geopolitics in the coming months is the role of non-aligned powers such as India and Indonesia.
Though they are democratic nations with relatively warm ties with the West in recent years, both India and Indonesia have remained adamantly neutral amid the conflict between the West on the one hand and Russia and China on the other. Accordingly, both Asian countries have refused to back western sanctions either against Moscow or Beijing.
Eager to maintain an equidistant relationship with all major powers, and insulate their own populations against global uncertainty, India and Indonesia are more concerned about disruptions to the global economy and commodity markets due to unilateral western sanctions against rival powers in the East. To this end, both countries are expected to leverage their growing international influence to rally the so-called Global South, nudge the West towards dialogue with Russia and China, and establish a more inclusive, multipolar security architecture in the Indo-Pacific.
In short, the coming months will be shaped as much by rival superpowers as non-aligned emerging powers in Asia, especially as everyone seeks to mitigate the deleterious impact of a world in polycrisis.
Closing the loophole on sugary drinks
As The National reported last year, non-fizzy sugared drinks were not covered when the original tax was introduced in 2017. Sports drinks sold in supermarkets were found to contain, on average, 20 grams of sugar per 500ml bottle.
The non-fizzy drink AriZona Iced Tea contains 65 grams of sugar – about 16 teaspoons – per 680ml can. The average can costs about Dh6, which would rise to Dh9.
Drinks such as Starbucks Bottled Mocha Frappuccino contain 31g of sugar in 270ml, while Nescafe Mocha in a can contains 15.6g of sugar in a 240ml can.
Flavoured water, long-life fruit juice concentrates, pre-packaged sweetened coffee drinks fall under the ‘sweetened drink’ category
Not taxed:
Freshly squeezed fruit juices, ground coffee beans, tea leaves and pre-prepared flavoured milkshakes do not come under the ‘sweetened drink’ band.
Infiniti QX80 specs
Engine: twin-turbocharged 3.5-liter V6
Power: 450hp
Torque: 700Nm
Price: From Dh450,000, Autograph model from Dh510,000
Company name/date started: Seez, set up in September 2015 and the app was released in August 2017
Founder/CEO name(s): Tarek Kabrit, co-founder and chief executive, and Andrew Kabrit, co-founder and chief operating officer
Based in: Dubai, with operations also in Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Lebanon
Sector: Search engine for car buying, selling and leasing
Size: (employees/revenue): 11; undisclosed
Stage of funding: $1.8 million in seed funding; followed by another $1.5m bridge round - in the process of closing Series A
Investors: Wamda Capital, B&Y and Phoenician Funds
One in nine do not have enough to eat
Created in 1961, the World Food Programme is pledged to fight hunger worldwide as well as providing emergency food assistance in a crisis.
One of the organisation’s goals is the Zero Hunger Pledge, adopted by the international community in 2015 as one of the 17 Sustainable Goals for Sustainable Development, to end world hunger by 2030.
The WFP, a branch of the United Nations, is funded by voluntary donations from governments, businesses and private donations.
Almost two thirds of its operations currently take place in conflict zones, where it is calculated that people are more than three times likely to suffer from malnutrition than in peaceful countries.
It is currently estimated that one in nine people globally do not have enough to eat.
On any one day, the WFP estimates that it has 5,000 lorries, 20 ships and 70 aircraft on the move.
Outside emergencies, the WFP provides school meals to up to 25 million children in 63 countries, while working with communities to improve nutrition. Where possible, it buys supplies from developing countries to cut down transport cost and boost local economies.
SCORES IN BRIEF
Lahore Qalandars 186 for 4 in 19.4 overs
(Sohail 100,Phil Salt 37 not out, Bilal Irshad 30, Josh Poysden 2-26) bt Yorkshire Vikings 184 for 5 in 20 overs
(Jonathan Tattersall 36, Harry Brook 37, Gary Ballance 33, Adam Lyth 32, Shaheen Afridi 2-36).
The specs: 2018 Harley-Davidson Fat Boy
Price, base / as tested Dh97,600 Engine 1,745cc Milwaukee-Eight v-twin engine Transmission Six-speed gearbox Power 78hp @ 5,250rpm Torque 145Nm @ 3,000rpm Fuel economy, combined 5.0L / 100km (estimate)
TICKETS
Tickets start at Dh100 for adults, while children can enter free on the opening day. For more information, visit www.mubadalawtc.com.
Highest individual score: 175 not out – Chris Gayle (for Royal Challengers Bangalore against Pune Warriors in 2013)
Highest strike-rate: 177.29 – Andre Russell
Highest strike-rate in an innings: 422.22 – Chris Morris (for Delhi Daredevils against Rising Pune Supergiant in 2017)
Highest average: 52.16 – Vijay Shankar
Most centuries: 6 – Chris Gayle
Most fifties: 36 – Gautam Gambhir
Fastest hundred (balls faced): 30 – Chris Gayle (for Royal Challengers Bangalore against Pune Warriors in 2013)
Fastest fifty (balls faced): 14 – Lokesh Rahul (for Kings XI Punjab against Delhi Daredevils in 2018)
UK-EU trade at a glance
EU fishing vessels guaranteed access to UK waters for 12 years
Co-operation on security initiatives and procurement of defence products
Youth experience scheme to work, study or volunteer in UK and EU countries
Smoother border management with use of e-gates
Cutting red tape on import and export of food
WHAT IS GRAPHENE?
It was discovered in 2004, when Russian-born Manchester scientists Andrei Geim and Kostya Novoselov were experimenting with sticky tape and graphite, the material used as lead in pencils.
Placing the tape on the graphite and peeling it, they managed to rip off thin flakes of carbon. In the beginning they got flakes consisting of many layers of graphene. But when they repeated the process many times, the flakes got thinner.
By separating the graphite fragments repeatedly, they managed to create flakes that were just one atom thick. Their experiment led to graphene being isolated for the very first time.
In 2010, Geim and Novoselov were awarded the Nobel Prize for Physics.
Rajputs
UAE players: Rohan Mustafa, Ashfaq Ahmed
Indian: Munaf Patel
RESULT
Esperance de Tunis 1 Guadalajara 1
(Esperance won 6-5 on penalties) Esperance: Belaili 38’ Guadalajara: Sandoval 5’
Electoral College Victory
Trump has so far secured 295 Electoral College votes, according to the Associated Press, exceeding the 270 needed to win. Only Nevada and Arizona remain to be called, and both swing states are leaning Republican. Trump swept all five remaining swing states, North Carolina, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, sealing his path to victory and giving him a strong mandate.
Popular Vote Tally
The count is ongoing, but Trump currently leads with nearly 51 per cent of the popular vote to Harris’s 47.6 per cent. Trump has over 72.2 million votes, while Harris trails with approximately 67.4 million.
GAC GS8 Specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 248hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 400Nm at 1,750-4,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 9.1L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh149,900
Match info
Liverpool 3
Hoedt (10' og), Matip (21'), Salah (45 3')
A worker is categorised as skilled by the MOHRE based on nine levels given in the International Standard Classification of Occupations (ISCO) issued by the International Labour Organisation.
A skilled worker would be someone at a professional level (levels 1 – 5) which includes managers, professionals, technicians and associate professionals, clerical support workers, and service and sales workers.
The worker must also have an attested educational certificate higher than secondary or an equivalent certification, and earn a monthly salary of at least Dh4,000.
Uefa Champions League semi-final, first leg
Bayern Munich v Real Madrid When: April 25, 10.45pm kick-off (UAE) Where: Allianz Arena, Munich Live: BeIN Sports HD Second leg: May 1, Santiago Bernabeu, Madrid
March 15 - Australia, Melbourne; March 22 - Bahrain, Sakhir; April 5 - Vietnam, Hanoi; April 19 - China, Shanghai; May 3 - Netherlands, Zandvoort; May 20 - Spain, Barcelona; May 24 - Monaco, Monaco; June 7 - Azerbaijan, Baku; June 14 - Canada, Montreal; June 28 - France, Le Castellet; July 5 - Austria, Spielberg; July 19 - Great Britain, Silverstone; August 2 - Hungary, Budapest; August 30 - Belgium, Spa; September 6 - Italy, Monza; September 20 - Singapore, Singapore; September 27 - Russia, Sochi; October 11 - Japan, Suzuka; October 25 - United States, Austin; November 1 - Mexico City, Mexico City; November 15 - Brazil, Sao Paulo; November 29 - Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi.
