Raghida Dergham is the founder and executive chairwoman of the Beirut Institute, and a columnist for The National
March 19, 2023
Chinese President Xi Jinping’s three-day visit to Moscow, starting on Monday, will be followed closely by officials in Washington and the European capitals, as they try to gauge its implications for the Ukraine conflict. For the West, Ukraine remains a priority, more so than Beijing’s Middle Eastern initiatives – except perhaps insofar as they concern the fate of the China-Russia-Iran axis.
The Chinese leadership could reassure Iran from the Russian capital that their strategic pact will not be affected by Beijing’s ties with the Gulf countries. It might also reaffirm the importance of strategic relations with Moscow, in a way that does not directly antagonise the US.
Russian President Vladimir Putin will probably urge Mr Xi to help offset his country’s losses from western sanctions. The two leaders are also likely to: discuss projects for new pipelines between their countries and the various scenarios involving the Ukraine war; address the Moscow-Tehran alliance extending from Ukraine to Syria; and discuss enhancing long-term strategic agreements between the three countries.
One of two scenarios is likely to emerge from the growing three-way partnership.
The first scenario involves a shift in the Chinese position, where its pivot to the Gulf states represents a warning to Tehran that the Iranian regime must reconsider the core of its regional ideology. Those who believe in this scenario are optimistic that China’s leverage over Iran could induce a shift in its behaviour towards its neighbours and the region more broadly.
The second scenario follows from the premise that the China-Russia-Iran axis is a lasting strategic alliance against the West. Those who believe in this scenario doubt there has been any fraying of Chinese-Iranian relations, and that Tehran is reassured by its alliance with both Beijing and Moscow, irrespective of their individual relations with the GCC countries.
Fighters loyal to Yemen's Saudi-backed government march during a mass funeral for fellow fighters, killed during clashes with Houthi rebels, in Hodeida last October. AFP
Expectations for a quantum leap on Iran's part that changes the features of the region should be tempered
Let’s assume for a moment that the second scenario has more traction.
There is a fundamental difference between the Iranian regime reforming itself and modifying its behaviour. Those familiar with its thinking are adamant that it will never agree to real reform, for that would run contrary to its raison d’etre and undermine some of its members’ political and personal interests. The regime will not alter the mechanisms of the state built since the 1979 revolution, including mechanisms for exporting its revolution to sovereign countries with weak governments, such as Iraq, Lebanon, Syria and Yemen.
In this scenario, it is likely to create a gentler facade and soften its conduct. It could still press ahead with its projects, but covertly rather than overtly. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is unlikely to not suffer consequences for its actions in the region, and Hezbollah in Lebanon will not need to worry about its fate. The regime will probably continue its nuclear programme but tone down its rhetoric. In other words, Tehran will change its tactics but not its strategy.
The question here is: will China agree to such circumvention and subterfuge, or will it persuade Iran to respect the sovereignty of states, which would require Tehran to roll back the deployment of paramilitary forces loyal to it in the region?
There is no clear answer to this important question yet, which is why no one should get ahead of themselves over the Saudi-Iran deal that Beijing brokered earlier this month. Instead, expectations for a quantum leap that changes the features of the region should be tempered.
Saudi Arabia itself has maintained cautious optimism in its statements. Its council of ministers have made a brief comment, welcoming the pledges – made in accordance with the conditions set by their joint statement – that Tehran will not pursue any ambitions that affect security relations between the two countries and will stop its expansionism at the expanse of the sovereignty of states in the region.
Now let’s analyse the first scenario to see if it is genuinely possible.
One reason for the world to believe that China will ensure the implementation of the Saudi-Iran pledges is what’s at stake for Beijing itself. This includes its Belt and Road initiative, and its keenness to maintain strategic relations with the countries in the GCC and the Levant.
China seeks to replace the US’s strategic influence in the region, but not displace it as the leading security partner of a number of the region’s states. Its economic priorities are not limited to securing energy at favourable prices from Saudi Arabia and Iran. They also include building ports from the Arabian Sea to the northern Gulf and from Djibouti in the Red Sea, to access European shores. Beijing will benefit strategically and economically by burnishing its reputation as a guarantor of pledges and conflict resolution.
And yet, all this depends on Iran’s commitment to its pledges.
Those who believe in the first scenario see the change in Iran’s positions as resulting from necessity following its international isolation, with dwindling European support and protection for itself following its involvement in the Ukraine war alongside Russia. Iran’s efforts at the Vienna nuclear negotiations have failed to secure its nuclear “rights”, and it is still haunted by recent domestic unrest.
These optimists also believe that Tehran has been compelled to change tack not just due to its economic problems, but also because it faces the prospect of a war with the West through Israel over its nuclear weapons programme. The Chinese initiative, therefore, may have come to reassure these powers that Beijing is committed to upholding UN resolutions and principles that preclude nuclear arms proliferation to Iran, through peaceful rather than military means.
Possibly for this reason, the US administration has welcomed China’s diplomatic demarche. Indeed, the Saudi-Iran deal could spare Washington the option of using military power against Tehran and to put further pressure on the latter to jam the brakes on its nuclear programme. Moreover, the US does not see China as an adversary to Israel, and thus does not believe that its move encourages a Saudi-Iranian partnership against Israel.
So, which of the two scenarios will eventually materialise? The ball is clearly in the Iranian regime’s court.
Starring: Abdullah Boushehri, Laila Abdallah, Lulwa Almulla
Rating: 3/5
It’ll be summer in the city as car show tries to move with the times
If 2008 was the year that rocked Detroit, 2019 will be when Motor City gives its annual car extravaganza a revamp that aims to move with the times.
A major change is that this week's North American International Auto Show will be the last to be held in January, after which the event will switch to June.
The new date, organisers said, will allow exhibitors to move vehicles and activities outside the Cobo Center's halls and into other city venues, unencumbered by cold January weather, exemplified this week by snow and ice.
In a market in which trends can easily be outpaced beyond one event, the need to do so was probably exacerbated by the decision of Germany's big three carmakers – BMW, Mercedes-Benz and Audi – to skip the auto show this year.
The show has long allowed car enthusiasts to sit behind the wheel of the latest models at the start of the calendar year but a more fluid car market in an online world has made sales less seasonal.
Similarly, everyday technology seems to be catching up on those whose job it is to get behind microphones and try and tempt the visiting public into making a purchase.
Although sparkly announcers clasp iPads and outline the technical gadgetry hidden beneath bonnets, people's obsession with their own smartphones often appeared to offer a more tempting distraction.
“It's maddening,” said one such worker at Nissan's stand.
The absence of some pizzazz, as well as top marques, was also noted by patrons.
“It looks like there are a few less cars this year,” one annual attendee said of this year's exhibitors.
“I can't help but think it's easier to stay at home than to brave the snow and come here.”
Classification of skills
A worker is categorised as skilled by the MOHRE based on nine levels given in the International Standard Classification of Occupations (ISCO) issued by the International Labour Organisation.
A skilled worker would be someone at a professional level (levels 1 – 5) which includes managers, professionals, technicians and associate professionals, clerical support workers, and service and sales workers.
The worker must also have an attested educational certificate higher than secondary or an equivalent certification, and earn a monthly salary of at least Dh4,000.
Dobromir Radichkov, chief data officer at dubizzle and Bayut, offers a few tips for UAE residents looking to earn some cash from pre-loved items.
Sellers should focus on providing high-quality used goods at attractive prices to buyers.
It’s important to use clear and appealing photos, with catchy titles and detailed descriptions to capture the attention of prospective buyers.
Try to advertise a realistic price to attract buyers looking for good deals, especially in the current environment where consumers are significantly more price-sensitive.
Be creative and look around your home for valuable items that you no longer need but might be useful to others.
Fixtures - Open Men 2pm: India v New Zealand, Malaysia v UAE, Singapore v South Africa, Sri Lanka v England; 8pm: Australia v Singapore, India v Sri Lanka, England v Malaysia, New Zealand v South Africa
Fixtures - Open Women Noon: New Zealand v England, UAE v Australia; 6pm: England v South Africa, New Zealand v Australia
'The worst thing you can eat'
Trans fat is typically found in fried and baked goods, but you may be consuming more than you think.
Powdered coffee creamer, microwave popcorn and virtually anything processed with a crust is likely to contain it, as this guide from Mayo Clinic outlines:
Baked goods - Most cakes, cookies, pie crusts and crackers contain shortening, which is usually made from partially hydrogenated vegetable oil. Ready-made frosting is another source of trans fat.
Snacks - Potato, corn and tortilla chips often contain trans fat. And while popcorn can be a healthy snack, many types of packaged or microwave popcorn use trans fat to help cook or flavour the popcorn.
Fried food - Foods that require deep frying — french fries, doughnuts and fried chicken — can contain trans fat from the oil used in the cooking process.
Refrigerator dough - Products such as canned biscuits and cinnamon rolls often contain trans fat, as do frozen pizza crusts.
Creamer and margarine - Nondairy coffee creamer and stick margarines also may contain partially hydrogenated vegetable oils.
Company: Instabug
Founded: 2013
Based: Egypt, Cairo
Sector: IT
Employees: 100
Stage: Series A
Investors: Flat6Labs, Accel, Y Combinator and angel investors
1. Domestic VAT refund amendments: request your refund within five years
If a business does not apply for the refund on time, they lose their credit.
2. E-invoicing in the UAE
Businesses should continue preparing for the implementation of e-invoicing in the UAE, with 2026 a preparation and transition period ahead of phased mandatory adoption.
3. More tax audits
Tax authorities are increasingly using data already available across multiple filings to identify audit risks.
4. More beneficial VAT and excise tax penalty regime
Tax disputes are expected to become more frequent and more structured, with clearer administrative objection and appeal processes. The UAE has adopted a new penalty regime for VAT and excise disputes, which now mirrors the penalty regime for corporate tax.
5. Greater emphasis on statutory audit
There is a greater need for the accuracy of financial statements. The International Financial Reporting Standards standards need to be strictly adhered to and, as a result, the quality of the audits will need to increase.
6. Further transfer pricing enforcement
Transfer pricing enforcement, which refers to the practice of establishing prices for internal transactions between related entities, is expected to broaden in scope. The UAE will shortly open the possibility to negotiate advance pricing agreements, or essentially rulings for transfer pricing purposes.
7. Limited time periods for audits
Recent amendments also introduce a default five-year limitation period for tax audits and assessments, subject to specific statutory exceptions. While the standard audit and assessment period is five years, this may be extended to up to 15 years in cases involving fraud or tax evasion.
8. Pillar 2 implementation
Many multinational groups will begin to feel the practical effect of the Domestic Minimum Top-Up Tax (DMTT), the UAE's implementation of the OECD’s global minimum tax under Pillar 2. While the rules apply for financial years starting on or after January 1, 2025, it is 2026 that marks the transition to an operational phase.
9. Reduced compliance obligations for imported goods and services
Businesses that apply the reverse-charge mechanism for VAT purposes in the UAE may benefit from reduced compliance obligations.
10. Substance and CbC reporting focus
Tax authorities are expected to continue strengthening the enforcement of economic substance and Country-by-Country (CbC) reporting frameworks. In the UAE, these regimes are increasingly being used as risk-assessment tools, providing tax authorities with a comprehensive view of multinational groups’ global footprints and enabling them to assess whether profits are aligned with real economic activity.
Contributed by Thomas Vanhee and Hend Rashwan, Aurifer
