Philippine president Ferdinand Marcos Jr, left, and outgoing president Rodrigo Duterte, right, at the Malacanang Presidential Palace grounds in Manila in June 2022. AP Photo
Philippine president Ferdinand Marcos Jr, left, and outgoing president Rodrigo Duterte, right, at the Malacanang Presidential Palace grounds in Manila in June 2022. AP Photo
Philippine president Ferdinand Marcos Jr, left, and outgoing president Rodrigo Duterte, right, at the Malacanang Presidential Palace grounds in Manila in June 2022. AP Photo
Richard Javad Heydarian is a Manila-based academic, columnist and author
August 30, 2023
With all politics being local, parochial interests often shape even the grandest policies of contemporary leaders.
Foreign policy, for instance, can’t be understood without taking domestic politics into consideration. This is especially the case in modern democracies, where pressure groups and powerful lobbies can shape, if not dictate, the foreign policy direction of even the most powerful presidents.
In today’s Philippines, however, something bizarre is taking place. For the first time in recent memory, foreign policy issues are beginning to define domestic politics.
President Ferdinand Marcos Jr is facing stiffest opposition not from his liberal-progressive critics, who have been politically marginalised in recent years, but from within the ruling coalition.
Former president Rodrigo Duterte, father of current Vice President Sara Duterte, has criticised his successor’s foreign policy direction. In particular, he has accused the Marcos Jr administration of risking direct conflict with China by rapidly expanding defence co-operation with the US.
Last month, Mr Duterte made a controversial visit to Beijing, where top Chinese leaders publicly asked him to help ease bilateral tensions. The visit was apparently not co-ordinated with Philippine officials, underscoring the former president’s willingness to challenge his successor’s authority on foreign policy matters.
Although Mr Marcos Jr tried to assuage Mr Duterte’s concerns during a subsequent meeting, the incumbent is clearly committed to a radically divergent foreign policy from his Beijing-friendly predecessor. The upshot is a potential showdown between the two powerful leaders, most likely during the midterms elections in 2025, which could determine Mr Marcos Jr’s legacy years in office.
For more than half-a-decade, two powerful dynasties have dominated Philippine politics, namely the House of Duterte, representing the country’s “Deep South”, and the House of Marcos, representing the “Solid North”. In last year’s elections, the “UniTeam” tandem of Mr Marcos Jr and Sara Duterte won the greatest share of votes in contemporary Philippine history.
The liberal-progressive opposition has been thoroughly vanquished in the past three elections, leaving the Marcos-Duterte axis in an unprecedented position of dominance in Philippine politics. Last year, only a single opposition candidate won a spot in the 24-member Senate, the Philippines’ upper chamber. In the lower house, there are barely a dozen opposition members while the administration’s allies are in the hundreds.
Philippine Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro inspects a proposed logistics facility and training grounds at a military base in the town of Gamu this month. EPA
A US Marines V-22 Osprey aircraft lands on Australian landing helicopter dock ship HMAS Canberra during a joint exercise between Australian and Philippine troops at a naval base in San Antonio town, Zambales province on Friday. AFP
Although Marcos Jr tried to assuage Mr Duterte’s concerns, he is committed to a radically divergent foreign policy from his predecessor
Opposition leaders such as former vice president Leni Robredo have largely retreated into social programme advocacies, while many others have become travel bloggers and TikTokers. Fed up with decades of dysfunctional politics, the Filipino electorate has largely embraced the populist agenda of the Marcos-Duterte axis.
Yet the incumbent is grappling with cracks in his own alliance only a year into his presidency.
Factionalism within the governing coalition exploded into the surface following the perfunctory demotion of Gloria Macapagal Arroyo in the congressional leadership. The move was reportedly due to suspicions that the former president, currently a congresswoman, was “plotting a coup” against House Speaker Martin Romualdez, who is Mr Marcos Jr’s cousin and his de facto right man.
Shortly after, Sara Duterte resigned from the governing party, led by Mr Romualdez, to express her discontent against “political toxicity” and “execrable political powerplay”. Soon, a word war erupted between the Vice President and the Speaker’s allies.
Aside from powerplays, a major source of friction was Ms Arroyo’s vocal opposition to Mr Marcos Jr’s warming defence ties with the West. Like the Dutertes, Ms Arroyo has generally favoured robust ties with China, with a view to lessen her country’s dependence on traditional allies as well as de-escalate tensions in the disputed South China Sea.
But while Ms Arroyo has shunned publicly criticising Mr Marcos Jr, Mr Duterte has not shied away from openly doing so. Recently, he zeroed in on the Enhanced Defence Co-operation Agreement (EDCA), which grants the Pentagon extensive, flexible and rotational access to a host of prized military facilities across the Philippines. During his term in office, Mr Duterte refused to fully implement this pact.
Perturbed by rising tensions in the South China Sea, however, Mr Marcos Jr has gone so far as expanding the EDCA by, inter alia, granting the US forces access to bases close to both the South China Sea and Taiwan’s southern shores. In response, Mr Duterte has accused his successor of unduly provoking China and undermining Philippine sovereignty due to expanded US presence.
Earlier this year, Mr Duterte even claimed, without providing evidence, that the Pentagon is intent on placing nuclear warheads in EDCA bases, thus risking an apocalyptic conflict at the Philippines’ expense. Then came his visit to Beijing, where he met President Xi Jinping and other Chinese leaders.
Although the details of the meeting are yet to be publicised, it is possible that Beijing sought Mr Duterte’s assistance to dissuade his successor from granting extensive access to American troops under EDCA. Mr Marcos Jr has repeatedly sought to reassure China that Manila will not allow its bases to be used by the US for offensive operations, particularly in an event of conflict over Taiwan. But Beijing remains unconvinced.
Rodrigo Duterte hosts Xi Jinping in Manila in 2018. Duterte has maintained close ties with Beijing in the years since. AFP
In any case, Mr Duterte’s intervention appears to have backfired. Shortly after his meeting with Mr Marcos Jr, Philippine Defence Secretary Gilbert Teodoro declared “it is not any other countries’ business to question what we do here [with our own military bases]”. Mr Teodoro made it clear that EDCA reflects Manila’s sovereign prerogative and is, operationally, meant to enhance the Philippines’ defensive capabilities.
Rising tensions in the South China Sea, particularly over the Philippine-controlled Second Thomas Shoal, has only reinforced the Marcos Jr administration’s pivot to traditional allies. If anything, the incumbent is coming under growing pressure to stand up to China in tandem with allies.
A recent survey by the New York-based Eurasia Group consultancy showed that seven out of 10 Filipinos are distrustful of China. Another authoritative survey, commissioned by the Manila-based Stratbase ADR Institute, showed that more than 80 per cent of the public want the government to seek assistance from allies to protect the Philippines’ position in the South China Sea.
Eager to stay in tune with public opinion, top legislators have also called on the government to take more drastic action, including forming a “new quadrilateral” security alliance with the US, Australia and Japan; taking its maritime disputes to the UN General Assembly; and potentially placing even Philippine-occupied islands in the South China Sea under the EDCA.
A great believer in diplomacy, Mr Marcos Jr will probably shun overly provocative actions in the near future. He has already approved joint patrols with allies in the contested areas and may also seek US assistance during its resupply mission to hotly contested areas such as the Second Thomas Shoal. Otherwise, he may risk both public backlash as well as growing opposition from the Philippine political elite.
However, Mr Marcos Jr’s foreign policy direction has placed him on a collision course with his predecessor, who has warned of potentially leading an opposition if policy differences deepen. The 2025 midterms could, therefore, become a proxy war between the two most powerful political dynasties in the Philippines, particularly over foreign policy issues.
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Best Academy: Ajax and Benfica
Best Agent: Jorge Mendes
Best Club : Liverpool
Best Coach: Jurgen Klopp (Liverpool)
Best Goalkeeper: Alisson Becker
Best Men’s Player: Cristiano Ronaldo
Best Partnership of the Year Award by SportBusiness: Manchester City and SAP
Best Referee: Stephanie Frappart
Best Revelation Player: Joao Felix (Atletico Madrid and Portugal)
Best Sporting Director: Andrea Berta (Atletico Madrid)
Best Women's Player: Lucy Bronze
Best Young Arab Player: Achraf Hakimi
Kooora – Best Arab Club: Al Hilal (Saudi Arabia)
Kooora – Best Arab Player: Abderrazak Hamdallah (Al-Nassr FC, Saudi Arabia)
Player Career Award: Miralem Pjanic and Ryan Giggs
Sir Tim Berners-Lee was born in London in a household of mathematicians and computer scientists. Both his mother, Mary Lee, and father, Conway, were early computer scientists who worked on the Ferranti 1 - the world's first commercially-available, general purpose digital computer. Sir Tim studied Physics at the University of Oxford and held a series of roles developing code and building software before moving to Switzerland to work for Cern, the European Particle Physics laboratory. He developed the worldwide web code as a side project in 1989 as a global information-sharing system. After releasing the first web code in 1991, Cern made it open and free for all to use. Sir Tim now campaigns for initiatives to make sure the web remains open and accessible to all.
Manchester Originals: Andre Russell, Wanindu Hasaranga, Sean Abbott
Northern Superchargers: Dwayne Bravo, Wahab Riaz
Oval Invincibles: Sunil Narine, Rilee Rossouw
Trent Rockets: Colin Munro
Birmingham Phoenix: Matthew Wade, Kane Richardson
Southern Brave: Quinton de Kock
Islamophobia definition
A widely accepted definition was made by the All Party Parliamentary Group on British Muslims in 2019: “Islamophobia is rooted in racism and is a type of racism that targets expressions of Muslimness or perceived Muslimness.” It further defines it as “inciting hatred or violence against Muslims”.
Dark Souls: Remastered
Developer: From Software (remaster by QLOC)
Publisher: Namco Bandai
Price: Dh199
Learn more about Qasr Al Hosn
In 2013, The National's History Project went beyond the walls to see what life was like living in Abu Dhabi's fabled fort:
Stars: Nadine Labaki, Ziad Bakri, Zain Al Rafeea, Riman Al Rafeea
Rating: 2.5/5
Herc's Adventures
Developer: Big Ape Productions Publisher: LucasArts Console: PlayStation 1 & 5, Sega Saturn Rating: 4/5
PRESIDENTS CUP
Draw for Presidents Cup fourball matches on Thursday (Internationals first mention). All times UAE:
02.32am (Thursday): Marc Leishman/Joaquin Niemann v Tiger Woods/Justin Thomas
02.47am (Thursday): Adam Hadwin/Im Sung-jae v Xander Schauffele/Patrick Cantlay
03.02am (Thursday): Adam Scott/An Byeong-hun v Bryson DeChambeau/Tony Finau
03.17am (Thursday): Hideki Matsuyama/CT Pan v Webb Simpson/Patrick Reed
03.32am (Thursday): Abraham Ancer/Louis Oosthuizen v Dustin Johnson/Gary Woodland
