Satellite launch has created space for Turkey to spread its wings

The successful launch of Turkey’s first indigenously produced communications satellite earlier this month was undoubtedly an impressive scientific achievement. Fewer than a dozen other states have proven capable of such a technological feat. There are likely to be implications for the domestic economy, and the launch is an important milestone in Turkey’s search for strategic autonomy, with potential downstream effects on the country’s relations with its neighbours. The July 8 launch of Turksat 6A (T6A) from a launch site in Florida, currently operated under lease by SpaceX, was said by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to represent Turkey’s entry into a new phase of satellite production. T6A was launched using a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket, and Mr Erdogan said his government was “pleased to strengthen our co-operation with Elon Musk and SpaceX in various fields”. Mr Erdogan underlined that Turkey “produced more than 81 per cent of the subsystems, satellite ground stations and software in the 6A project”. T6A was manufactured by Turkish Aerospace Industries, with financial support from Turkey’s Defence Industry Agency (SSB) and the state-owned company Turksat, which will operate the satellite in its geostationary orbit. T6A has coverage over five billion people in total, reinforcing the five smaller communications satellites Turkey previously launched to deal with the Middle East and Europe, and expanding Turkish coverage to areas like India, Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia. The satellite has civil and military capabilities, and over the long term it will enable Turkey to have a wider vision in both spheres. A more concrete impact in the shorter term is to increase the access to reliable communications for the Turkish military in remote and inclement areas, such as the Qandil Mountains in northern Iraq, the headquarters of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which Turkey, the US and several other states consider a terrorist group. The advances in Turkey’s drone programme have been used to great effect in the past few years to keep the PKK off-balance, straining the ability of the militants to maintain command and control in the various PKK theatres, notably Syria, and eliminating some of the most senior PKK leaders. But cloud cover during spells of bad weather inhibits drones and gives militants chances to escape and transmit orders. The capacities gained with the new satellite could contribute to closing such gaps. Beyond logistics and battlefield and tactical intelligence, in the digital age the vast majority of valuable intelligence comes from signals intercepts. Turkey is now much better positioned to play this game and on a grander scale. Then there is the additional strategic freedom granted to Turkey by having access to the kind of communications capabilities and intelligence streams the T6A provides without any dependence on foreigners, practical or political, something hinted at by Mr Erdogan. For example, the hostile US reaction to the 2019 “Baris Pinari” incursion against the PKK in Syria, and the American posture ever since, has constrained Turkey’s options because Ankara requires US assistance in various ways. As Turkey’s indigenous security capacity increases, these points of reliance – and US leverage – diminish. Mr Erdogan is also clearly alert to the economic possibilities that flow from this. After the launch, he hailed the development as not only “another source of pride for our … nation” but a matter of “great importance for our country’s future”. That applies both in space and very much closer to home, in terms of the Turkish market share when it comes to the critical technologies related to the production of satellites and their components. Economic constraints are among the reasons Turkey has pulled back from its more activist regional role in the past half-decade. Many of the issues Turkey was trying to deal with have now been settled one way or the other, and the transformation of the political landscape as Ankara has mended fences with neighbours makes it unlikely that Turkey’s policy will return to quite what it was in the aftermath of the 2011 Arab uprisings. Nonetheless, if demand for satellites and related technologies brings flows of capital and accompanying employment opportunities, it could help stabilise the economy, with knock-on effects that reconsolidate Mr Erdogan’s domestic political position and could support a somewhat more assertive regional role. The trend of harmony could continue. Saudi Arabia and the UAE, in particular, have been expanding their space sectors. The Gulf states are embarked on technology programmes that have raised strong home-grown companies but also continue to require externally provided technologies. Turkey is well-placed to be that provider. Better economic relations do not always mean better political relations, but much has already been done to improve the situation. If Turkey were eventually able to supply specialist components to the Gulf’s burgeoning technology and aerospace sectors, that could help to entrench a more co-operative dynamic. In either case, there is little doubt that the T6A launch marks a milestone in Turkey’s capabilities, and gives the country greater power to decide future steps.