There is turmoil in Ankara. The national currency this month hit repeated lows against the dollar, setting off a national crisis – one that was further exacerbated when US president Donald Trump decided to double tariffs on steel and aluminium, apparently as punishment for Turkey's arrest of an American Christian pastor.
Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan has adopted the language of war, telling supporters the crisis was "a national domestic battle" and that Turkey, in response, would boycott US electronics.
But with Ankara distracted with domestic issues, the Syrian regime has been pressing ahead with its attacks on Idlib province, the last rebel stronghold, seeking to take advantage of Turkey's disarray to score victories on the real battlefield.
In the last week the Syrian regime, which had been massing tanks at the border between its territory and Idlib, began shelling towns all along the border. Troops are also gathering in Hama, the regime-controlled city closest to Idlib province. Helicopters have flown across the province, dropping leaflets warning residents that the war “is almost over” and urging them to accept the return of the regime.
The attacks by the regime this week have focused on the southern and western edges of the province; the strategy seems to be to push north along the Damascus-Aleppo highway, and, in the west, retake the strategic city of Jisr Ash Shugur. But the whole province is braced for what might be an all-out assault.
Such an assault would be catastrophic for the 2.5 million civilians in Idlib province. But it would also be catastrophic for Turkey's policy. So long in the ascendant in Syria, Turkey is now stretched by domestic issues at home. The last thing it needs is a growing foreign crisis as well.
Yet the problem for Turkey is that salvaging its Idlib strategy is the only way out of the Syrian conflict.
Whatever Turkey does in Idlib will bring criticism. Seeking to stay in the region will entail significant expense and a military commitment, which will bring domestic criticism.
It could also bring international censure over a prolonged occupation of Syrian territory. There is no possible way that Bashar Al Assad's government would accept handing over parts of Syrian territory, which means that Turkey would be staying in the region with the “permission” of the rebels or of the Syrian population of Idlib, a situation uncomfortably close to how Russia justified its annexation of Crimea, which brought near-universal condemnation and sanctions.
Given Turkey’s deteriorating relationship with the European Union and the United States, that would add fuel to the fire for the West.
Nor would Turkey staying be popular with Syrians. At the moment it is being welcomed as a plausible alternative to regime rule. But in time, Syrians will ask why their country must be run by foreigners.
Yet staying might be the best of a number of bad options. Leaving would be seen as a betrayal by the Free Syrian Army rebel groups that Turkey has spent so long training.
Syrians inside those areas that have been protected by Turkey would also feel betrayed at the desertion. And once the inevitable purges by the regime's security services begin, there might be “blowback” in the form of revenge attacks on Turkish soil.
Worst of all, from Turkey’s perspective, the return of the regime to these areas would be preceded by mass attacks of the sort seen in other recaptured rebel areas. That would precipitate an exodus of Syrians seeking sanctuary, with up to one million potentially seeking refuge in Turkey.
Turkey is being backed into a corner and is turning to Russia for a way out.
When the two sides met in Sochi at the end of July, it appeared that Ankara had accepted a deal whereby it would deal with the militant groups inside Idlib province in return for the regime halting a full-scale incursion.
Here it appears Moscow was seeking a balance: to use Turkey to stop militant attacks on its military base in Latakia while also agreeing to let the regime retake the western parts of Idlib.
But that is merely a temporary solution. A bigger framework will be needed to stop the regime from retaking Idlib. Since Monday, Russia's foreign minister Sergei Lavrov has been in Ankara trying to find one. Yet time is running out.
What has emerged so far is a Russian plan for a four-way Syria summit with Turkey, Germany and France – an intriguing development and one that noticeably cuts out the US and Britain, both of which have taken a hard line over the poisoning of a former Russian spy in an English town.
For Russia, anything that internationalises the conflict is a positive step because it offers more powerful countries a stake in Russia’s plan for Syria while also cementing Russia’s reputation as a major power that can impose settlements.
But whether the summit will happen and whether it can actually stop a regime attack is difficult to predict. There is every chance that the Syrian regime will simply seize its moment and move into Idlib, knowing Turkey is too distracted at home.
Even if it doesn't, that might not solve Ankara's woes, as the joint Syrian army that Turkey is assembling inside rebel territory is under stress due to long-standing rivalries between rebel forces. Turkey's long-planned Syria policy is in danger of fracturing.
It may well be that Ankara has run out of luck; that, as with its currency at home, its plans in Syria have taken a dive and no amount of political intervention can stop the slide.
The Sand Castle
Director: Matty Brown
Stars: Nadine Labaki, Ziad Bakri, Zain Al Rafeea, Riman Al Rafeea
Rating: 2.5/5
Formula Middle East Calendar (Formula Regional and Formula 4)
Round 1: January 17-19, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 2: January 22-23, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 3: February 7-9, Dubai Autodrome – Dubai
Round 4: February 14-16, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 5: February 25-27, Jeddah Corniche Circuit – Saudi Arabia
How%20to%20avoid%20getting%20scammed
%3Cul%3E%0A%3Cli%3ENever%20click%20on%20links%20provided%20via%20app%20or%20SMS%2C%20even%20if%20they%20seem%20to%20come%20from%20authorised%20senders%20at%20first%20glance%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3EAlways%20double-check%20the%20authenticity%20of%20websites%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3EEnable%20Two-Factor%20Authentication%20(2FA)%20for%20all%20your%20working%20and%20personal%20services%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3EOnly%20use%20official%20links%20published%20by%20the%20respective%20entity%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3EDouble-check%20the%20web%20addresses%20to%20reduce%20exposure%20to%20fake%20sites%20created%20with%20domain%20names%20containing%20spelling%20errors%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3C%2Ful%3E%0A
Dubai Bling season three
Cast: Loujain Adada, Zeina Khoury, Farhana Bodi, Ebraheem Al Samadi, Mona Kattan, and couples Safa & Fahad Siddiqui and DJ Bliss & Danya Mohammed
Rating: 1/5
What is a black hole?
1. Black holes are objects whose gravity is so strong not even light can escape their pull
2. They can be created when massive stars collapse under their own weight
3. Large black holes can also be formed when smaller ones collide and merge
4. The biggest black holes lurk at the centre of many galaxies, including our own
5. Astronomers believe that when the universe was very young, black holes affected how galaxies formed
Paatal Lok season two
Directors: Avinash Arun, Prosit Roy
Stars: Jaideep Ahlawat, Ishwak Singh, Lc Sekhose, Merenla Imsong
Rating: 4.5/5
Famous left-handers
- Marie Curie
- Jimi Hendrix
- Leonardo Di Vinci
- David Bowie
- Paul McCartney
- Albert Einstein
- Jack the Ripper
- Barack Obama
- Helen Keller
- Joan of Arc
Miss Granny
Director: Joyce Bernal
Starring: Sarah Geronimo, James Reid, Xian Lim, Nova Villa
3/5
(Tagalog with Eng/Ar subtitles)
Guide to intelligent investing
Investing success often hinges on discipline and perspective. As markets fluctuate, remember these guiding principles:
- Stay invested: Time in the market, not timing the market, is critical to long-term gains.
- Rational thinking: Breathe and avoid emotional decision-making; let logic and planning guide your actions.
- Strategic patience: Understand why you’re investing and allow time for your strategies to unfold.
The specs
Engine: Direct injection 4-cylinder 1.4-litre
Power: 150hp
Torque: 250Nm
Price: From Dh139,000
On sale: Now
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Game Changer
Director: Shankar
Stars: Ram Charan, Kiara Advani, Anjali, S J Suryah, Jayaram
Rating: 2/5
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
The Sky Is Pink
Director: Shonali Bose
Cast: Priyanka Chopra Jonas, Farhan Akhtar, Zaira Wasim, Rohit Saraf
Three stars
SPECS
Nissan 370z Nismo
Engine: 3.7-litre V6
Transmission: seven-speed automatic
Power: 363hp
Torque: 560Nm
Price: Dh184,500
Water waste
In the UAE’s arid climate, small shrubs, bushes and flower beds usually require about six litres of water per square metre, daily. That increases to 12 litres per square metre a day for small trees, and 300 litres for palm trees.
Horticulturists suggest the best time for watering is before 8am or after 6pm, when water won't be dried up by the sun.
A global report published by the Water Resources Institute in August, ranked the UAE 10th out of 164 nations where water supplies are most stretched.
The Emirates is the world’s third largest per capita water consumer after the US and Canada.
Company%C2%A0profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EHayvn%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2018%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EChristopher%20Flinos%2C%20Ahmed%20Ismail%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EAbu%20Dhabi%2C%20UAE%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3Efinancial%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInitial%20investment%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3Eundisclosed%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESize%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2044%20employees%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3Eseries%20B%20in%20the%20second%20half%20of%202023%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EHilbert%20Capital%2C%20Red%20Acre%20Ventures%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
COMPANY%20PROFILE%20
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EAlmouneer%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202017%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dr%20Noha%20Khater%20and%20Rania%20Kadry%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EEgypt%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20staff%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E120%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EBootstrapped%2C%20with%20support%20from%20Insead%20and%20Egyptian%20government%2C%20seed%20round%20of%20%3Cbr%3E%243.6%20million%20led%20by%20Global%20Ventures%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
ABU DHABI ORDER OF PLAY
Starting at 10am:
Daria Kasatkina v Qiang Wang
Veronika Kudermetova v Annet Kontaveit (10)
Maria Sakkari (9) v Anastasia Potapova
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova v Ons Jabeur (15)
Donna Vekic (16) v Bernarda Pera
Ekaterina Alexandrova v Zarina Diyas
Teenage%20Mutant%20Ninja%20Turtles%3A%20Shredder's%20Revenge
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDeveloper%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ETribute%20Games%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPublisher%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dotemu%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EConsoles%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ENintendo%20Switch%2C%20PlayStation%204%26amp%3B5%2C%20PC%20and%20Xbox%20One%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
