For an innately cautious politician like Theresa May, how she responds to the Syrian crisis could become the British Prime Minister’s defining moment.
Ever since she came to office in the summer of 2016 in the aftermath of the British referendum on membership of the EU, Mrs May has made it her particular speciality to avoid making public her views on major issues.
On the EU, for example, Mrs May’s somewhat Delphic remark, “Brexit means Brexit” aptly illustrates her deliberately vague position on the most important political issue in modern British history. As someone who campaigned to retain EU membership, and now finds herself in charge of a government that is determined to break with Brussels, Mrs May no doubt regards her ambivalence as being vital to her survival in office, especially as she heads a minority government.
But Mrs May’s deliberate opaqueness on this and other pressing issues often makes it difficult to read her preferred direction of travel.
Which is why the Syrian crisis, and the whole debate over Britain’s participation in military action against the Assad regime, has forced Mrs May out of her political comfort zone and compelled her, for once, to provide some decisive leadership.
In fairness to Mrs May, she had already started to adopt a more assertive leadership style after last month’s Salisbury poisoning, when Russian intelligence agents were accused of using a nerve agent to assassinate a defector.
Mrs May’s uncompromising response to the first chemical weapons attack on European soil since the end of the Second World War has won her many plaudits, in particular her remarkable diplomatic achievement in persuading dozens of countries and global institutions to support the mass expulsion of Russian diplomats by way of retaliation.
Now we are seeing hints of the same steely resolve in her response to the Assad regime's alleged use of chemical weapons against Syrian civilians in the rebel-held town of Douma, on the outskirts of Damascus.
Compared with handling the Salisbury attack, responding to international calls to retaliate against the Assad regime is a far more challenging undertaking for Mrs May, not least because it is the first time she has been asked to involve Britain in military action since taking office.
She is not, by temperament, the kind of person who is naturally inclined to assuming a global leadership role. Her preferred modus operandi is working behind the scenes with allies to form a consensus, thereby giving herself political cover if anything goes wrong.
But the Syrian chemical weapons attack means that, on this occasion, she has nowhere to hide.
Having stirred up an international outcry over the use of chemical weapons on the streets of Britain, she can hardly turn her back when they are used in the Damascus suburbs.
Another key factor that has forced Mrs May’s hand with regard to Syria has been the robust response of French President Emmanuel Macron, who was quick to declare his support for military action once it became clear that the Trump administration was preparing for a fresh round of hostilities with the Assad regime.
Mr Macron was reportedly so keen to make his mark with the White House that he even offered to get the French military to undertake the entire military response on behalf of the Americans.
Such grandstanding on the part of the French president will make for uncomfortable reading in Downing Street, which likes to think of itself as being the first port of call for an American president weighing up his response to a global crisis.
But with Britain preparing to leave the EU, Washington can no longer count on London to persuade the Europeans to do the right thing, which has generally been the American approach since the end of the Cold War. So talking to France instead, which, after Britain, has Europe’s largest military capability, makes sense to the Americans.
Allowing France to replace Britain in Washington’s affections, though, is not something any British prime minister wants, and the speed with which Mrs May has thrown away her customary caution and embraced American calls for action against Mr Al Assad therefore needs to be seen in the context of her desire to maintain Britain’s traditional position at the top table of American policy-making.
Mrs May’s support for the Trump administration is not without risk, particularly in Britain where she is likely to experience stiff resistance from opposition MPs in parliament.
Mrs May could find herself in difficulty if, as seems likely, she decides to authorise military action without first receiving parliamentary backing. While she is under no constitutional obligation to allow MPs a vote, in recent years a precedent has been set whereby the Commons voted on whether or not to commit British forces to action.
Parliament was first granted the privilege by Tony Blair in 2003, when he needed political backing for the invasion of Iraq. But in 2013 David Cameron suffered a humiliating defeat when he lost a Commons vote to back military action in Syria.
Donald Trump is unpopular among British MPs and Mrs May will be well aware that – without a majority in Parliament – she could easily suffer the same fate as Mr Cameron if she put the issue of launching air strikes against the Assad regime before the Commons.
But without a Commons vote, she alone will have to take full responsibility for attacking Syria, a burden that could come back to haunt her.
Con Coughlin is the Daily Telegraph’s Defence and Foreign Affairs Editor
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: HyperSpace
Started: 2020
Founders: Alexander Heller, Rama Allen and Desi Gonzalez
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: Entertainment
Number of staff: 210
Investment raised: $75 million from investors including Galaxy Interactive, Riyadh Season, Sega Ventures and Apis Venture Partners
Dubai Bling season three
Cast: Loujain Adada, Zeina Khoury, Farhana Bodi, Ebraheem Al Samadi, Mona Kattan, and couples Safa & Fahad Siddiqui and DJ Bliss & Danya Mohammed
Rating: 1/5
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The calling app is available to download on Google Play and Apple App Store
To successfully install ToTok, users are asked to enter their phone number and then create a nickname.
The app then gives users the option add their existing phone contacts, allowing them to immediately contact people also using the application by video or voice call or via message.
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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Fixtures
Opening day Premier League fixtures for August 9-11
August 9
Liverpool v Norwich 11pm
August 10
West Ham v Man City 3.30pm
Bournemouth v Sheffield Utd 6pm
Burnley v Southampton 6pm
C Palace v Everton 6pm
Leicester v Wolves 6pm
Watford v Brighton 6pm
Tottenham v Aston Villa 8.30pm
August 11
Newcastle v Arsenal 5pm
Man United v Chelsea 7.30pm
Game Changer
Director: Shankar
Stars: Ram Charan, Kiara Advani, Anjali, S J Suryah, Jayaram
Rating: 2/5
Paatal Lok season two
Directors: Avinash Arun, Prosit Roy
Stars: Jaideep Ahlawat, Ishwak Singh, Lc Sekhose, Merenla Imsong
Rating: 4.5/5
The specs
AT4 Ultimate, as tested
Engine: 6.2-litre V8
Power: 420hp
Torque: 623Nm
Transmission: 10-speed automatic
Price: From Dh330,800 (Elevation: Dh236,400; AT4: Dh286,800; Denali: Dh345,800)
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Our legal advisor
Ahmad El Sayed is Senior Associate at Charles Russell Speechlys, a law firm headquartered in London with offices in the UK, Europe, the Middle East and Hong Kong.
Experience: Commercial litigator who has assisted clients with overseas judgments before UAE courts. His specialties are cases related to banking, real estate, shareholder disputes, company liquidations and criminal matters as well as employment related litigation.
Education: Sagesse University, Beirut, Lebanon, in 2005.
Our family matters legal consultant
Name: Dr Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
Gulf Under 19s final
Dubai College A 50-12 Dubai College B
The specs
Engine: 3.8-litre, twin-turbo V8
Transmission: seven-speed automatic
Power: 592bhp
Torque: 620Nm
Price: Dh980,000
On sale: now
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Emergency
Director: Kangana Ranaut
Stars: Kangana Ranaut, Anupam Kher, Shreyas Talpade, Milind Soman, Mahima Chaudhry
Rating: 2/5
Scoreline:
Everton 4
Richarlison 13'), Sigurdsson 28', Digne 56', Walcott 64'
Manchester United 0
Man of the match: Gylfi Sigurdsson (Everton)
Formula Middle East Calendar (Formula Regional and Formula 4)
Round 1: January 17-19, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 2: January 22-23, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 3: February 7-9, Dubai Autodrome – Dubai
Round 4: February 14-16, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 5: February 25-27, Jeddah Corniche Circuit – Saudi Arabia
