Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has placed his country in the heart of a storm, taking US-Turkish relations to a cliff's edge as a result of his military and economic policies, which seem to benefit Russia more than Nato member Turkey itself. Mr Erdogan has already antagonised Europe, playing the card of refugees flocking to the West through the Turkish gateway. Not long ago, Turkey had normal relations with Saudi Arabia but Mr Erdogan today has lost that important relationship that brought together two major powers. Instead, he prefers to align himself with Qatar amid the Gulf dispute with Doha, pitting himself against the Arab quartet.
Mr Erdogan is also bargaining over his country’s interests in Syria with the Russians, becoming a secondary player in the Russian-led Astana process alongside Iran. He also dragged down Palestine when he chose to back Hamas over the Palestinian Authority, helping drive a wedge between Palestinians, only for Hamas to now turn its back on him as it seeks a deal with Israel with US and Egyptian blessing. His relations with Iran, meanwhile, are based on short-term calculations and a shared dislike of Nato ally US, pitting himself not only against Donald Trump but also the US Congress, which distrusts him for his dealings with Russia and Iran. In short, Mr Erdogan is dragging himself and Turkey into the abyss, unless he climbs down from his stubbornness and neo-Ottoman delusions. He has surrounded himself with enemies and given both Washington and Moscow a rope to hang him with.
Mr Trump's policy, which uses sanctions targeting the economy and currency as a means to coerce politically, is not solely responsible for the collapse of the Turkish lira. Rather, this was the result of the economic policies of Mr Erdogan and his son-in-law, the finance minister Berat Albayrak. US sanctions on Iran meanwhile have struck at the heart of the regime and will take an even more fateful turn when they expand into the oil sector on November 4. The new sanctions Washington threatened this week against Turkey unless it releases the American pastor Andrew Brunson will affect infrastructure and would not be mitigated by any kind of support like that pledged by the emir of Qatar after a visit to Ankara last week.
What is new and significant in the recent regional developments is the radical shift in the geography of crises here. In recent years, the Arab region was the chosen theatre for both Iran and Turkey to implement their regional projects. But today the regime in Tehran faces the possibility of implosion from within, a shift from the erstwhile exportation of its agenda, revolution and proxies into Arab countries – just as Mr Erdogan’s Turkey faces implosion.
The White House is not interested in Mr Erdogan's ultimate fate but in the fate of Turkey's Nato membership. Mr Erdogan's shenanigans have long irked US administrations and Congress. Some question his ulterior motives, saying Turkey is no longer a strategic ally.
Consequently the US has taken measures to reduce reliance on Turkey’s Incirlik airbase. US aircraft carriers will for the time being be the de facto alternative until Turkey’s Nato credentials are settled.
The US resentment with Turkey has multiple reasons, from the differences over the Kurdish question and Ankara’s insistence on acquiring the Russian-made S-400 air defence system, to the Turkish anti-American discourse and its bid to circumvent US sanctions on Iran.
By insisting on purchasing the S-400 system, he has triggered a bill in Congress to block the delivery of US F-35 fighter jets to Ankara. Turkey does not need the Russian system and the US military establishment would never allow a loophole through which the Russians could learn the secrets of the F-35. It is in Russia’s interest for Turkey to exit Nato, regardless of how that happens. But there is a bloody history between Russia and Turkey, which makes a Russian-Turkish alliance against Nato a dangerous idea, most notably because it would provoke both Europe and the US.
The issue of oil and gas might be instrumental in the development of Russian-Turkish relations, based on Turkey’s strategic position linking Russia, Iran, Azerbaijan and Qatar, the world’s top producers of gas, to the consuming countries in Europe. Iran and Qatar’s projects to export their gas to Europe through Syrian territory have been hindered by developments on the ground but also Russia’s dominance over the future of pipelines to Europe. Turkey was part of Qatar’s project to export gas through Syria but with the collapse of the Qatari project, Turkey shifted to alternative relations with Russia, which is developing its gas export policies to circumvent Ukraine.
The shortest route for Russian oil and gas experts to Europe is Ukraine but this is no longer an option following the Russian intervention there. Moscow has been looking to offset Ukraine and Turkey has offered its services. The US is angry because that is another Turkish policy that it considers provocative and incompatible with its interests.
Mr Erdogan’s wager on Vladimir Putin is risky and not just because of the two men’s arrogant and authoritarian personalities. What if a deal had been secretly struck between Mr Putin and Mr Trump at their summit in Helsinki? In that scenario, Mr Putin would not risk such an accord for the sake of an anti-Nato alliance with Mr Erdogan.
And what would Mr Erdogan do if Turkey left or was made to leave Nato? His strategic vision has made him an untrustworthy member of the alliance. Turkey does not have any friends that can mediate to contain the tensions with the US. The only way to de-escalate would be for Mr Erdogan to descend from his neo-Ottoman ivory tower and get in touch with reality.
The bio
His favourite book - 1984 by George Orwell
His favourite quote - 'If you think education is expensive, try ignorance' by Derek Bok, Former President of Harvard
Favourite place to travel to - Peloponnese, Southern Greece
Favourite movie - The Last Emperor
Favourite personality from history - Alexander the Great
Role Model - My father, Yiannis Davos
If you go
Where to stay: Courtyard by Marriott Titusville Kennedy Space Centre has unparalleled views of the Indian River. Alligators can be spotted from hotel room balconies, as can several rocket launch sites. The hotel also boasts cool space-themed decor.
When to go: Florida is best experienced during the winter months, from November to May, before the humidity kicks in.
How to get there: Emirates currently flies from Dubai to Orlando five times a week.
Company profile
Name: Thndr
Started: October 2020
Founders: Ahmad Hammouda and Seif Amr
Based: Cairo, Egypt
Sector: FinTech
Initial investment: pre-seed of $800,000
Funding stage: series A; $20 million
Investors: Tiger Global, Beco Capital, Prosus Ventures, Y Combinator, Global Ventures, Abdul Latif Jameel, Endure Capital, 4DX Ventures, Plus VC, Rabacap and MSA Capital
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What can you do?
Document everything immediately; including dates, times, locations and witnesses
Seek professional advice from a legal expert
You can report an incident to HR or an immediate supervisor
You can use the Ministry of Human Resources and Emiratisation’s dedicated hotline
In criminal cases, you can contact the police for additional support
Spider-Man: No Way Home
Director: Jon Watts
Stars: Tom Holland, Zendaya, Jacob Batalon
Rating:*****
Paatal Lok season two
Directors: Avinash Arun, Prosit Roy
Stars: Jaideep Ahlawat, Ishwak Singh, Lc Sekhose, Merenla Imsong
Rating: 4.5/5
How to help
Call the hotline on 0502955999 or send "thenational" to the following numbers:
2289 - Dh10
2252 - Dh50
6025 - Dh20
6027 - Dh100
6026 - Dh200
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MATCH INFO
Liverpool v Manchester City, Sunday, 8.30pm UAE
The White Lotus: Season three
Creator: Mike White
Starring: Walton Goggins, Jason Isaacs, Natasha Rothwell
Rating: 4.5/5
Labour dispute
The insured employee may still file an ILOE claim even if a labour dispute is ongoing post termination, but the insurer may suspend or reject payment, until the courts resolve the dispute, especially if the reason for termination is contested. The outcome of the labour court proceedings can directly affect eligibility.
- Abdullah Ishnaneh, Partner, BSA Law
Monster Hunter: World
Capcom
PlayStation 4, Xbox One
Countries recognising Palestine
France, UK, Canada, Australia, Portugal, Belgium, Malta, Luxembourg, San Marino and Andorra
Ten tax points to be aware of in 2026
1. Domestic VAT refund amendments: request your refund within five years
If a business does not apply for the refund on time, they lose their credit.
2. E-invoicing in the UAE
Businesses should continue preparing for the implementation of e-invoicing in the UAE, with 2026 a preparation and transition period ahead of phased mandatory adoption.
3. More tax audits
Tax authorities are increasingly using data already available across multiple filings to identify audit risks.
4. More beneficial VAT and excise tax penalty regime
Tax disputes are expected to become more frequent and more structured, with clearer administrative objection and appeal processes. The UAE has adopted a new penalty regime for VAT and excise disputes, which now mirrors the penalty regime for corporate tax.
5. Greater emphasis on statutory audit
There is a greater need for the accuracy of financial statements. The International Financial Reporting Standards standards need to be strictly adhered to and, as a result, the quality of the audits will need to increase.
6. Further transfer pricing enforcement
Transfer pricing enforcement, which refers to the practice of establishing prices for internal transactions between related entities, is expected to broaden in scope. The UAE will shortly open the possibility to negotiate advance pricing agreements, or essentially rulings for transfer pricing purposes.
7. Limited time periods for audits
Recent amendments also introduce a default five-year limitation period for tax audits and assessments, subject to specific statutory exceptions. While the standard audit and assessment period is five years, this may be extended to up to 15 years in cases involving fraud or tax evasion.
8. Pillar 2 implementation
Many multinational groups will begin to feel the practical effect of the Domestic Minimum Top-Up Tax (DMTT), the UAE's implementation of the OECD’s global minimum tax under Pillar 2. While the rules apply for financial years starting on or after January 1, 2025, it is 2026 that marks the transition to an operational phase.
9. Reduced compliance obligations for imported goods and services
Businesses that apply the reverse-charge mechanism for VAT purposes in the UAE may benefit from reduced compliance obligations.
10. Substance and CbC reporting focus
Tax authorities are expected to continue strengthening the enforcement of economic substance and Country-by-Country (CbC) reporting frameworks. In the UAE, these regimes are increasingly being used as risk-assessment tools, providing tax authorities with a comprehensive view of multinational groups’ global footprints and enabling them to assess whether profits are aligned with real economic activity.
Contributed by Thomas Vanhee and Hend Rashwan, Aurifer
Score
Third Test, Day 2
New Zealand 274
Pakistan 139-3 (61 ov)
Pakistan trail by 135 runs with 7 wickets remaining in the innings
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Tamkeen's offering
- Option 1: 70% in year 1, 50% in year 2, 30% in year 3
- Option 2: 50% across three years
- Option 3: 30% across five years
Result
Qualifier: Islamabad United beat Karachi Kings by eight wickets
Fixtures
Tuesday, Lahore: Eliminator 1 - Peshawar Zalmi v Quetta Gladiators
Wednesday, Lahore: Eliminator 2 – Karachi Kings v Winner of Eliminator 1
Sunday, Karachi: Final – Islamabad United v Winner of Eliminator 2
Sarfira
Director: Sudha Kongara Prasad
Starring: Akshay Kumar, Radhika Madan, Paresh Rawal
Rating: 2/5
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The bio:
Favourite film:
Declan: It was The Commitments but now it’s Bohemian Rhapsody.
Heidi: The Long Kiss Goodnight.
Favourite holiday destination:
Declan: Las Vegas but I also love getting home to Ireland and seeing everyone back home.
Heidi: Australia but my dream destination would be to go to Cuba.
Favourite pastime:
Declan: I love brunching and socializing. Just basically having the craic.
Heidi: Paddleboarding and swimming.
Personal motto:
Declan: Take chances.
Heidi: Live, love, laugh and have no regrets.
The specs
Engine: 77.4kW all-wheel-drive dual motor
Power: 320bhp
Torque: 605Nm
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Price: From Dh219,000
On sale: Now
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
MATCH INFO
Euro 2020 qualifier
Ukraine 2 (Yaremchuk 06', Yarmolenko 27')
Portugal 1 (Ronaldo 72' pen)
The President's Cake
Director: Hasan Hadi
Starring: Baneen Ahmad Nayyef, Waheed Thabet Khreibat, Sajad Mohamad Qasem
Rating: 4/5
Martin Sabbagh profile
Job: CEO JCDecaux Middle East
In the role: Since January 2015
Lives: In the UAE
Background: M&A, investment banking
Studied: Corporate finance
The five pillars of Islam
1. Fasting
2. Prayer
3. Hajj
4. Shahada
5. Zakat
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UAE Premiership
Results
Dubai Exiles 24-28 Jebel Ali Dragons
Abu Dhabi Harlequins 43-27 Dubai Hurricanes
Fixture
Friday, March 29, Abu Dhabi Harlequins v Jebel Ali Dragons, The Sevens, Dubai
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Challenge Cup result:
1. UAE 3 faults
2. Ireland 9 faults
3. Brazil 11 faults
4. Spain 15 faults
5. Great Britain 17 faults
6. New Zealand 20 faults
7. Italy 26 faults
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