First the protests, now the political negotiations. After months of demonstrations across Sudan, a popular uprising helped bring about the downfall last week of the president of 30 years, followed – within 30 hours – by a close ally who replaced him. The army has now formed a military transitional council and pledged to hold elections in two years.
Now the second stage begins, as protesters and opposition figures push for further reform. Protesters should be under no illusions: this is politics at its highest, most urgent level. The army has functioned as guarantors of a political transition before, but certain elements within it are also close to the former ruling party and the powerful intelligence agencies. None will relinquish power easily.
With thousands of people on the streets, the protesters have momentum. As they negotiate with the army, they must be wary of anything that could curb that leverage. This is the most precarious moment of the transition, when the victories that have been painstakingly won by protest could very easily be swallowed up by politics.
Street protests in Sudan have continued since December, first in response to rising food prices, then escalating into calls for the long-time president Omar Al Bashir to step aside. Now, with Mr Al Bashir gone, swiftly followed by his successor, general Awad Ibn Auf, protesters are emboldened in demanding the whole system be reformed and refusing to leave the streets until that happens. The army says it has no intention of holding onto power and merely wants to bring stability back to the streets. The protesters don't believe them. After all, Sudan has been here before.
If the Sudanese protesters are suspicious of the intentions of the army, that is only because this is not the first time the winds of change have blown through Khartoum – and not the first time the incumbents have found a way to cling to power.
In early 2011, as protests swept across the Arab republics, thousands of students took to the streets of Khartoum with a familiar list of demands: an end to one-party rule and economic hardship. The Sudanese government responded with arrests, beatings and live fire.
But the protests did not stop and in mid-February, just days after Egypt's Hosni Mubarak stepped down, the ruling National Congress Party announced that Mr Al Bashir would not seek re-election in 2015. Another Arab ruler was apparently stepping aside. Subsequent protests were forcefully suppressed.
Three years passed and in the run-up to that election, Mr Al Bashir announced there would be a national dialogue. And yet nothing substantive happened then. In the autumn of that year, Mr Al Bashir did a U-turn by saying he would, after all, seek re-election. By that time, the protest movement had died down, the media were muzzled, there was serious unrest in other parts of Sudan and the attention of the international community was elsewhere. In 2015, Mr Al Bashir was re-elected.
This time, then, the protest movement is digging in for the long-term, seeking decisive change. The situation is moving rapidly but the army appears to have learned a lesson from past mistakes by seeking ways to minimise confrontation and persuade protesters to go home. As in countries such as Algeria, recently affected by protests, the army has taken the side of the demonstrators, in opposition to the previous regime.
In Sudan, protesters have been galvanised by the rapid succession of three leaders in three days. A 10-member delegation from an umbrella group, the Alliance for Freedom and Change, put forward a list of demands on Saturday; meanwhile the Sudanese Professionals' Association has called for the military transitional council to disband and hand over power to a civilian interim government sooner rather than later, a demand backed by the EU.
What happens now turns on two related questions: how far the army is willing to restructure the institutions of power and how adept it is in maintaining stability.
For most of Mr Al Bashir's time in office, power in Sudan rested with three institutions: the army, the ruling National Congress Party and the intelligence service, the NISS.
For now, the army wields the power. The president has been removed and some of his coterie have been arrested. The NCP has been sidelined in transitional talks. The NISS is also being defanged: its powerful head Salah Abdallah Gosh was removed, although the army has stopped short of reforming the institution, as protesters have demanded.
All this has historical precedent. It was the army that shepherded the state after the popular revolt that overthrew Jaafar Nimeiri as president of Sudan in 1985. At that time, the transitional military council dissolved the ruling party, the Sudanese Socialist Union, broke up the secret police and paved the way for elections the following year. There is a possibility it could do something similar this time.
Civilians must be engaged in dialogue at every stage to ensure a peaceful transition of power. Bringing elections forward to next year as originally planned, instead of a two-year timeline, could help minimise the risk of crisis or need for another state of emergency. While the transitional council offers a necessary step towards security and stability, it should not be seen as a vehicle for the ambitions of any military-backed figures.
Further, the eventual administration must include regional representation. The problems in Sudan are not limited to the capital alone. The states of South Kordafan, Blue Nile and Darfur are still suffering from conflict and the protest movement must bring in representatives from beyond Khartoum.
Sudan is at a precarious point. The protest movement has won some victories and the army is now listening to the grievances of ordinary citizens. Gen Abdel Fattah Al Burhan has lifted a curfew and pledged to disassemble state institutions to "fight corruption and uproot the regime and its symbols". But the old power structures have not entirely gone away and they did not remain in power so long by simply relinquishing it under pressure. At this pivotal moment, both sides will need to make some compromises to end the stalemate on the streets.
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Libya's Gold
UN Panel of Experts found regime secretly sold a fifth of the country's gold reserves.
The panel’s 2017 report followed a trail to West Africa where large sums of cash and gold were hidden by Abdullah Al Senussi, Qaddafi’s former intelligence chief, in 2011.
Cases filled with cash that was said to amount to $560m in 100 dollar notes, that was kept by a group of Libyans in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso.
A second stash was said to have been held in Accra, Ghana, inside boxes at the local offices of an international human rights organisation based in France.
New process leads to panic among jobseekers
As a UAE-based travel agent who processes tourist visas from the Philippines, Jennifer Pacia Gado is fielding a lot of calls from concerned travellers just now. And they are all asking the same question.
“My clients are mostly Filipinos, and they [all want to know] about good conduct certificates,” says the 34-year-old Filipina, who has lived in the UAE for five years.
Ms Gado contacted the Philippines Embassy to get more information on the certificate so she can share it with her clients. She says many are worried about the process and associated costs – which could be as high as Dh500 to obtain and attest a good conduct certificate from the Philippines for jobseekers already living in the UAE.
“They are worried about this because when they arrive here without the NBI [National Bureau of Investigation] clearance, it is a hassle because it takes time,” she says.
“They need to go first to the embassy to apply for the application of the NBI clearance. After that they have go to the police station [in the UAE] for the fingerprints. And then they will apply for the special power of attorney so that someone can finish the process in the Philippines. So it is a long process and more expensive if you are doing it from here.”
Getting there
Flydubai flies direct from Dubai to Tbilisi from Dh1,025 return including taxes
Mia Man’s tips for fermentation
- Start with a simple recipe such as yogurt or sauerkraut
- Keep your hands and kitchen tools clean. Sanitize knives, cutting boards, tongs and storage jars with boiling water before you start.
- Mold is bad: the colour pink is a sign of mold. If yogurt turns pink as it ferments, you need to discard it and start again. For kraut, if you remove the top leaves and see any sign of mold, you should discard the batch.
- Always use clean, closed, airtight lids and containers such as mason jars when fermenting yogurt and kraut. Keep the lid closed to prevent insects and contaminants from getting in.
Safety 'top priority' for rival hyperloop company
The chief operating officer of Hyperloop Transportation Technologies, Andres de Leon, said his company's hyperloop technology is “ready” and safe.
He said the company prioritised safety throughout its development and, last year, Munich Re, one of the world's largest reinsurance companies, announced it was ready to insure their technology.
“Our levitation, propulsion, and vacuum technology have all been developed [...] over several decades and have been deployed and tested at full scale,” he said in a statement to The National.
“Only once the system has been certified and approved will it move people,” he said.
HyperloopTT has begun designing and engineering processes for its Abu Dhabi projects and hopes to break ground soon.
With no delivery date yet announced, Mr de Leon said timelines had to be considered carefully, as government approval, permits, and regulations could create necessary delays.
PSG's line up
GK: Alphonse Areola (youth academy)
Defence - RB: Dani Alves (free transfer); CB: Marquinhos (€31.4 million); CB: Thiago Silva (€42m); LB: Layvin Kurzawa (€23m)
Midfield - Angel di Maria (€47m); Adrien Rabiot (youth academy); Marco Verratti (€12m)
Forwards - Neymar (€222m); Edinson Cavani (€63m); Kylian Mbappe (initial: loan; to buy: €180m)
Total cost: €440.4m (€620.4m if Mbappe makes permanent move)
Feeding the thousands for iftar
Six industrial scale vats of 500litres each are used to cook the kanji or broth
Each vat contains kanji or porridge to feed 1,000 people
The rice porridge is poured into a 500ml plastic box
350 plastic tubs are placed in one container trolley
Each aluminium container trolley weighing 300kg is unloaded by a small crane fitted on a truck
Europe’s rearming plan
- Suspend strict budget rules to allow member countries to step up defence spending
- Create new "instrument" providing €150 billion of loans to member countries for defence investment
- Use the existing EU budget to direct more funds towards defence-related investment
- Engage the bloc's European Investment Bank to drop limits on lending to defence firms
- Create a savings and investments union to help companies access capital
A State of Passion
Directors: Carol Mansour and Muna Khalidi
Stars: Dr Ghassan Abu-Sittah
Rating: 4/5
In numbers: China in Dubai
The number of Chinese people living in Dubai: An estimated 200,000
Number of Chinese people in International City: Almost 50,000
Daily visitors to Dragon Mart in 2018/19: 120,000
Daily visitors to Dragon Mart in 2010: 20,000
Percentage increase in visitors in eight years: 500 per cent
Plan to boost public schools
A major shake-up of government-run schools was rolled out across the country in 2017. Known as the Emirati School Model, it placed more emphasis on maths and science while also adding practical skills to the curriculum.
It was accompanied by the promise of a Dh5 billion investment, over six years, to pay for state-of-the-art infrastructure improvements.
Aspects of the school model will be extended to international private schools, the education minister has previously suggested.
Recent developments have also included the introduction of moral education - which public and private schools both must teach - along with reform of the exams system and tougher teacher licensing requirements.
If you go:
The flights: Etihad, Emirates, British Airways and Virgin all fly from the UAE to London from Dh2,700 return, including taxes
The tours: The Tour for Muggles usually runs several times a day, lasts about two-and-a-half hours and costs £14 (Dh67)
Harry Potter and the Cursed Child is on now at the Palace Theatre. Tickets need booking significantly in advance
Entrance to the Harry Potter exhibition at the House of MinaLima is free
The hotel: The grand, 1909-built Strand Palace Hotel is in a handy location near the Theatre District and several of the key Harry Potter filming and inspiration sites. The family rooms are spacious, with sofa beds that can accommodate children, and wooden shutters that keep out the light at night. Rooms cost from £170 (Dh808).
