The continued delay in finalising a new Lebanese government is becoming increasingly worrisome at a time when the country’s economy is in deep crisis. The official reason is continued disagreement over the appointment of Christian and Druse ministers. Yet a more profound problem looms over the cabinet formation process and Lebanese officials should be worried.
One thing that prime minister-designate Saad Hariri has not mentioned in discussing the government until now is that there are red lines that have been imposed by the United States. So even if he can remove the Christian and Druse obstacles, another major impediment might be waiting.
Hezbollah has made clear that it wants a services ministry in the new government, principally the health ministry. After spending five years fighting in Syria, the party would like to distribute favours, such as healthcare, to its base, which is uneasy about Hezbollah's Syrian deployment. Moreover, due to Iran's economic problems, financial transfers to Hezbollah have reportedly been cut, so the party would like to compensate for this by having access to state funds.
Yet Washington has warned Mr Hariri that while he is free to do what he wants in finalising his cabinet, giving Hezbollah a patronage ministry that would increase its support would not be a good idea – implying that this could threaten continued US assistance to Lebanon. At a time when the mood in the US is shifting on Lebanon and Iran, the prime minister-designate is caught in a dilemma between what Hezbollah wants and what the Americans want.
What has been evident in recent months is how out of touch Lebanese politicians are with the drift in Washington. Many wrongly believe that because the US has continued to supply the Lebanese army with weapons, this shows a long-term commitment to Lebanon. But even friendly US officials affirm that Lebanon is not that important to the administration of US President Donald Trump. So there might soon come a point where the government’s co-operative attitude toward Hezbollah causes an irreparable backlash in Washington.
Lebanese Foreign Minister Gebran Bassil has hardly improved matters in this regard. Mr Bassil is a presidential hopeful and has frequently taken positions echoing those of Hezbollah and Syria, two of the major decision-makers in determining which candidates emerge as favourites for the presidency. Yet adopting such positions only alienates US officials, particularly when Pentagon aid to the Lebanese military is drawing growing criticism from Congress.
The Lebanese government has also moved closer to Russia, on the assumption that Moscow will have greater influence in the Levant in the future. For instance, the Russians have proposed creating committees with Lebanon and Jordan to repatriate Syrian refugees. But while strengthening ties with Russia makes sense, it is acutely important for the Lebanese not to be seen to be taking sides in the growing tensions between Russia and the West.
Most damagingly, the Lebanese authorities have failed to condemn Hezbollah's invitations to Lebanon of Iranian allies, including Houthi representatives and leaders of Iraq's Popular Mobilisation Units. When US officials brought this up with their Lebanese counterparts, the Lebanese reportedly admitted that the Americans were right, then shrugged it off. That passivity is very unlikely to endear Lebanon to American decision-makers.
All this reinforces a narrative that is gaining momentum in the US, namely that Lebanon equals Hezbollah and Hezbollah equals Lebanon. This simplistic appraisal – which Hezbollah has also repeated incessantly to discredit the Lebanese state – is not one easily disproved by Lebanese politicians currying favour with the party. Ultimately, Mr Trump cut assistance to Pakistan and to the Palestinians and doing the same to Lebanon would be no big deal for him.
At a time when Lebanon is already not in the good graces of the Gulf states, which employ hundreds of thousands of Lebanese, what would American retaliation mean for the country? What if students and families couldn’t travel to the US? If Lebanese banks became pariahs in the global financial system, what would happen? These are questions that need to be asked, because any successful campaign to identify Lebanon with Iran and its allies could lead to sanctions that undermine a highly fragile economy and society.
Until now Lebanon has been relatively lucky, despite repeatedly shooting itself in the foot. Some months ago the Military Tribunal sentenced a Lebanese researcher, Hanin Ghaddar, to a prison term for criticising the army. She worked at the same Washington research institute as a recently appointed US assistant secretary of state for Near East policy. Not surprisingly, when the head of the tribunal saw his US visa revoked, the Lebanese government backtracked.
Lebanon has a low threshold for pain when it comes to the US. That’s why it’s best to avoid cheap political manoeuvres targeting Washington, designed to gain minor advantages in Lebanon’s political game. Politicians in Beirut need not approve of everything the Americans say, but nor does it make any sense to wave a red flag at an administration that has not shied away from fights and certainly will not do so with the feeblest of countries.
Michael Young is editor of Diwan, the blog of the Carnegie Middle East programme, in Beirut
Electoral College Victory
Trump has so far secured 295 Electoral College votes, according to the Associated Press, exceeding the 270 needed to win. Only Nevada and Arizona remain to be called, and both swing states are leaning Republican. Trump swept all five remaining swing states, North Carolina, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, sealing his path to victory and giving him a strong mandate.
Popular Vote Tally
The count is ongoing, but Trump currently leads with nearly 51 per cent of the popular vote to Harris’s 47.6 per cent. Trump has over 72.2 million votes, while Harris trails with approximately 67.4 million.
Disclaimer
Director: Alfonso Cuaron
Stars: Cate Blanchett, Kevin Kline, Lesley Manville
Rating: 4/5
Business Insights
- Canada and Mexico are significant energy suppliers to the US, providing the majority of oil and natural gas imports
- The introduction of tariffs could hinder the US's clean energy initiatives by raising input costs for materials like nickel
- US domestic suppliers might benefit from higher prices, but overall oil consumption is expected to decrease due to elevated costs
Oscars in the UAE
The 90th Academy Awards will be aired in the UAE from 3.30am on Monday, March 5 on OSN, with the ceremony starting at 5am
What it means to be a conservationist
Who is Enric Sala?
Enric Sala is an expert on marine conservation and is currently the National Geographic Society's Explorer-in-Residence. His love of the sea started with his childhood in Spain, inspired by the example of the legendary diver Jacques Cousteau. He has been a university professor of Oceanography in the US, as well as working at the Spanish National Council for Scientific Research and is a member of the World Economic Forum’s Global Future Council on Biodiversity and the Bio-Economy. He has dedicated his life to protecting life in the oceans. Enric describes himself as a flexitarian who only eats meat occasionally.
What is biodiversity?
According to the United Nations Environment Programme, all life on earth – including in its forests and oceans – forms a “rich tapestry of interconnecting and interdependent forces”. Biodiversity on earth today is the product of four billion years of evolution and consists of many millions of distinct biological species. The term ‘biodiversity’ is relatively new, popularised since the 1980s and coinciding with an understanding of the growing threats to the natural world including habitat loss, pollution and climate change. The loss of biodiversity itself is dangerous because it contributes to clean, consistent water flows, food security, protection from floods and storms and a stable climate. The natural world can be an ally in combating global climate change but to do so it must be protected. Nations are working to achieve this, including setting targets to be reached by 2020 for the protection of the natural state of 17 per cent of the land and 10 per cent of the oceans. However, these are well short of what is needed, according to experts, with half the land needed to be in a natural state to help avert disaster.
Tailors and retailers miss out on back-to-school rush
Tailors and retailers across the city said it was an ominous start to what is usually a busy season for sales.
With many parents opting to continue home learning for their children, the usual rush to buy school uniforms was muted this year.
“So far we have taken about 70 to 80 orders for items like shirts and trousers,” said Vikram Attrai, manager at Stallion Bespoke Tailors in Dubai.
“Last year in the same period we had about 200 orders and lots of demand.
“We custom fit uniform pieces and use materials such as cotton, wool and cashmere.
“Depending on size, a white shirt with logo is priced at about Dh100 to Dh150 and shorts, trousers, skirts and dresses cost between Dh150 to Dh250 a piece.”
A spokesman for Threads, a uniform shop based in Times Square Centre Dubai, said customer footfall had slowed down dramatically over the past few months.
“Now parents have the option to keep children doing online learning they don’t need uniforms so it has quietened down.”
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Almnssa
Started: August 2020
Founder: Areej Selmi
Based: Gaza
Sectors: Internet, e-commerce
Investments: Grants/private funding
The specs
Engine: 2-litre or 3-litre 4Motion all-wheel-drive Power: 250Nm (2-litre); 340 (3-litre) Torque: 450Nm Transmission: 8-speed automatic Starting price: From Dh212,000 On sale: Now
Dubai works towards better air quality by 2021
Dubai is on a mission to record good air quality for 90 per cent of the year – up from 86 per cent annually today – by 2021.
The municipality plans to have seven mobile air-monitoring stations by 2020 to capture more accurate data in hourly and daily trends of pollution.
These will be on the Palm Jumeirah, Al Qusais, Muhaisnah, Rashidiyah, Al Wasl, Al Quoz and Dubai Investment Park.
“It will allow real-time responding for emergency cases,” said Khaldoon Al Daraji, first environment safety officer at the municipality.
“We’re in a good position except for the cases that are out of our hands, such as sandstorms.
“Sandstorms are our main concern because the UAE is just a receiver.
“The hotspots are Iran, Saudi Arabia and southern Iraq, but we’re working hard with the region to reduce the cycle of sandstorm generation.”
Mr Al Daraji said monitoring as it stood covered 47 per cent of Dubai.
There are 12 fixed stations in the emirate, but Dubai also receives information from monitors belonging to other entities.
“There are 25 stations in total,” Mr Al Daraji said.
“We added new technology and equipment used for the first time for the detection of heavy metals.
“A hundred parameters can be detected but we want to expand it to make sure that the data captured can allow a baseline study in some areas to ensure they are well positioned.”
The years Ramadan fell in May
If you go
Where to stay: Courtyard by Marriott Titusville Kennedy Space Centre has unparalleled views of the Indian River. Alligators can be spotted from hotel room balconies, as can several rocket launch sites. The hotel also boasts cool space-themed decor.
When to go: Florida is best experienced during the winter months, from November to May, before the humidity kicks in.
How to get there: Emirates currently flies from Dubai to Orlando five times a week.
Company%20profile
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Business Insights
- As per the document, there are six filing options, including choosing to report on a realisation basis and transitional rules for pre-tax period gains or losses.
- SMEs with revenue below Dh3 million per annum can opt for transitional relief until 2026, treating them as having no taxable income.
- Larger entities have specific provisions for asset and liability movements, business restructuring, and handling foreign permanent establishments.
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In numbers
- Number of children under five will fall from 681 million in 2017 to 401m in 2100
- Over-80s will rise from 141m in 2017 to 866m in 2100
- Nigeria will become the world’s second most populous country with 791m by 2100, behind India
- China will fall dramatically from a peak of 2.4 billion in 2024 to 732 million by 2100
- an average of 2.1 children per woman is required to sustain population growth
Company Profile:
Name: The Protein Bakeshop
Date of start: 2013
Founders: Rashi Chowdhary and Saad Umerani
Based: Dubai
Size, number of employees: 12
Funding/investors: $400,000 (2018)
The Lowdown
Kesari
Rating: 2.5/5 stars
Produced by: Dharma Productions, Azure Entertainment
Directed by: Anubhav Singh
Cast: Akshay Kumar, Parineeti Chopra
Pieces of Her
Stars: Toni Collette, Bella Heathcote, David Wenham, Omari Hardwick
Director: Minkie Spiro
Rating:2/5
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The specs
Engine: Dual 180kW and 300kW front and rear motors
Power: 480kW
Torque: 850Nm
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Price: From Dh359,900 ($98,000)
On sale: Now
The specs
Engine: 1.5-litre turbo
Power: 181hp
Torque: 230Nm
Transmission: 6-speed automatic
Starting price: Dh79,000
On sale: Now
Company%20Profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Cargoz%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EDate%20started%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20January%202022%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Premlal%20Pullisserry%20and%20Lijo%20Antony%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dubai%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20staff%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2030%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Seed%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
THE SPECS
Engine: 6.75-litre twin-turbocharged V12 petrol engine
Power: 420kW
Torque: 780Nm
Transmission: 8-speed automatic
Price: From Dh1,350,000
On sale: Available for preorder now
Results
Stage 7:
1. Caleb Ewan (AUS) Lotto Soudal - 3:18:29
2. Sam Bennett (IRL) Deceuninck-QuickStep - same time
3. Phil Bauhaus (GER) Bahrain Victorious
4. Michael Morkov (DEN) Deceuninck-QuickStep
5. Cees Bol (NED) Team DSM
General Classification:
1. Tadej Pogacar (SLO) UAE Team Emirates - 24:00:28
2. Adam Yates (GBR) Ineos Grenadiers - 0:00:35
3. Joao Almeida (POR) Deceuninck-QuickStep - 0:01:02
4. Chris Harper (AUS) Jumbo-Visma - 0:01:42
5. Neilson Powless (USA) EF Education-Nippo - 0:01:45
