The sacking of the US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, who was replaced by CIA chief Mike Pompeo, happened just before the visit this week of the Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to Washington DC. In truth, this represents an opportunity to force some firmness and exactitude into the US administration’s position on Saudi Arabia’s policy lines.
Indeed, Donald Trump’s fickleness has not only affected his administration but also US policy positions as a whole, despite them showing some coherence recently. Some figures in the Trump administration have clashed while others have worked well together. Some continue to try to influence the administration even after they had left the White House, such as Steve Bannon, while others are probably cursing the day they had agreed to work with the administration; perhaps most prominent among those is Mr Tillerson. But his sacking will be relief to some in the region, especially because of what was seen as his erstwhile sympathy for Iran and Qatar.
In contrast, Mr Pompeo is considered one of the hawks when it comes to Iran, while simultaneously being, like Mr Trump, an advocate of strengthening US ties with Saudi Arabia. Yet US policy and the performance of the administration has not instantly become clearer after the mixed signals of Mr Tillerson.
Therefore, in order to be successful, the crown prince’s US tour must seek to diagnose the root of the schizophrenia in US foreign policy and its symptoms. The Saudis must raise obvious and crucial questions, such as what does the US want in the Middle East?
Because without a clear answer, the ambiguity, deliberate or otherwise, might lead to something close to the April Glaspie scenario – the former US ambassador to Iraq who supposedly “lured” Saddam Hussein into the invasion of Kuwait by being vague about Washington’s stance, even suggesting consent. What happened next is history.
It will be crucial for the crown prince to put pressure on the US president and his team to forsake this ambiguity, because the current stage, whether in Saudi Arabia or elsewhere in the Middle East, cannot tolerate such an approach. The Saudis have a right to ask Mr Trump and his men for clarity, especially with Mr Pompeo in the State Department now alongside another solid pair of hands, National Security Adviser HR McMaster. For example, the Americans must clarify whether they are true committed partners when it comes to curbing Iranian meddling in Yemen. On this issue, despite the US envoy to the UN Nikki Haley’s tough line, the actual US policy on Yemen remains unfathomably vague.
The Saudis must ask: what does the US want in Yemen? In what ways does it intend to pressure Iran to modify its behaviour in Yemen? Does Washington see Yemen as a strictly Saudi problem, or does Washington see Yemen as a good place to launch a new partnership with Riyadh against Iranian incursions?
The US has also pursued conflicting lines on other pressing issues concerning the region. Today, there is an opportunity with the new team at the state department, especially given the timing of the crown prince’s visit.
HR McMaster has been the most clear of Mr Trump’s circle when it comes to committing to ending the Iranian project in Yemen, Syria, Iraq, and Lebanon. By contrast, the Defence Secretary James Mattis is known in Washington as a liberal, despite being outwardly a conservative and a hawk. But with Mr Tillerson out, with Mr Pompeo’s appointment, and with the coming occupation of the State Department’s still vacant key positions by hawks rather than closeted liberals, Mr McMaster and his ilk could have the upper hand.
No one is guaranteed to remain in their post in the Trump era and reports suggest John Bolton is being groomed to replace Mr McMaster, although this could be part of the psychological warfare accompanying the competition for the administration’s core posts. However, if this turns out to be true, things could get complicated, because while Mr Bolton is tough on Iran he is tame with Israel and its influence on US policies, domestic and foreign, including on Iran itself.
Indeed, informed sources in Washington say that Mr McMaster wants to move quickly and decisively against Iranian projects “but the Israeli strategic thinking is that Israel does not want the Sunni-Shia conflict to end and wants it to last and linger”. For Israel, “as long as Sunni-Shia conflicts are raging and Saudi and Iran are squaring off, Tel Aviv will be let off the hook over having to resolve the Palestinian question, which Israel’s friends in Washington do not want to solve”, sources suggest. In other words, according to these sources, Israel fears that settling the Iranian issue would focus efforts on the Palestinian issue next. And Israel maintains immense influence on US policymakers in Washington.
So what do the Americans really want in the end? An answer to this question must come, at least on the major issues in the Middle East, to prevent ambiguity from causing a major miscalculation, or another April Glaspie moment.
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Greatest of All Time
Starring: Vijay, Sneha, Prashanth, Prabhu Deva, Mohan
Wicked
Director: Jon M Chu
Stars: Cynthia Erivo, Ariana Grande, Jonathan Bailey
VEZEETA PROFILE
Date started: 2012
Founder: Amir Barsoum
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: HealthTech / MedTech
Size: 300 employees
Funding: $22.6 million (as of September 2018)
Investors: Technology Development Fund, Silicon Badia, Beco Capital, Vostok New Ventures, Endeavour Catalyst, Crescent Enterprises’ CE-Ventures, Saudi Technology Ventures and IFC
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
If you go
The flights
Emirates (www.emirates.com) and Etihad (www.etihad.com) both fly direct to Bengaluru, with return fares from Dh 1240. From Bengaluru airport, Coorg is a five-hour drive by car.
The hotels
The Tamara (www.thetamara.com) is located inside a working coffee plantation and offers individual villas with sprawling views of the hills (tariff from Dh1,300, including taxes and breakfast).
When to go
Coorg is an all-year destination, with the peak season for travel extending from the cooler months between October and March.
pakistan Test squad
Azhar Ali (capt), Shan Masood, Abid Ali, Imam-ul-Haq, Asad Shafiq, Babar Azam, Fawad Alam, Haris Sohail, Imran Khan, Kashif Bhatti, Mohammad Rizwan (wk), Naseem Shah, Shaheen Shah Afridi, Mohammad Abbas, Yasir Shah, Usman Shinwari
Business Insights
- Canada and Mexico are significant energy suppliers to the US, providing the majority of oil and natural gas imports
- The introduction of tariffs could hinder the US's clean energy initiatives by raising input costs for materials like nickel
- US domestic suppliers might benefit from higher prices, but overall oil consumption is expected to decrease due to elevated costs
Company%20Profile
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The specs
Engine: 3.0-litre six-cylinder turbo
Power: 398hp from 5,250rpm
Torque: 580Nm at 1,900-4,800rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Fuel economy, combined: 6.5L/100km
On sale: December
Price: From Dh330,000 (estimate)
Australia World Cup squad
Aaron Finch (capt), Usman Khawaja, David Warner, Steve Smith, Shaun Marsh, Glenn Maxwell, Marcus Stoinis, Alex Carey, Pat Cummins, Mitchell Starc, Jhye Richardson, Nathan Coulter-Nile, Jason Behrendorff, Nathan Lyon, Adam Zampa
If you go
Where to stay: Courtyard by Marriott Titusville Kennedy Space Centre has unparalleled views of the Indian River. Alligators can be spotted from hotel room balconies, as can several rocket launch sites. The hotel also boasts cool space-themed decor.
When to go: Florida is best experienced during the winter months, from November to May, before the humidity kicks in.
How to get there: Emirates currently flies from Dubai to Orlando five times a week.
COMPANY PROFILE
Founders: Alhaan Ahmed, Alyina Ahmed and Maximo Tettamanzi
Total funding: Self funded
Match info
Uefa Champions League Group H
Manchester United v Young Boys, Tuesday, midnight (UAE)
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
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Friday's schedule in Madrid
Men's quarter-finals
Novak Djokivic (1) v Marin Cilic (9) from 2pm UAE time
Roger Federer (4) v Dominic Thiem (5) from 7pm
Stefanos Tsitsipas (8) v Alexander Zverev (3) from 9.30pm
Stan Wawrinka v Rafael Nadal (2) from 11.30pm
Women's semi-finals
Belinda Bencic v Simona Halep (3) from 4.30pm
Sloane Stephens (8) v Kiki Bertens (7) from 10pm
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Company%20Profile
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COMPANY%20PROFILE
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Results
5pm: UAE Martyrs Cup (TB) Conditions Dh90,000 2,200m
Winner: Mudaarab, Jim Crowley (jockey), Erwan Charpy (trainer).
5.30pm: Wathba Stallions Cup (PA) Handicap Dh70,000 1,400m
Winner: Jawal Al Reef, Richard Mullen, Hassan Al Hammadi.
6pm: UAE Matyrs Trophy (PA) Maiden Dh80,000 1,600m
Winner: Salima Al Reef, Jesus Rosales, Abdallah Al Hammadi.
6.30pm: Sheikha Fatima bint Mubarak (IFAHR) Apprentice Championship (PA) Prestige Dh100,000 1,600m
Winner: Bainoona, Ricardo Iacopini, Eric Lemartinel.
7pm: Sheikha Fatima bint Mubarak (IFAHR) Ladies World Championship (PA) Prestige Dh125,000 1,600m
Winner: Assyad, Victoria Larsen, Eric Lemartinel.
8pm: Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan Al Nahyan Jewel Crown (PA) Group 1 Dh5,000,000 1,600m
Winner: Mashhur Al Khalediah, Jean-Bernard Eyquem, Phillip Collington.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Emergency phone numbers in the UAE
Estijaba – 8001717 – number to call to request coronavirus testing
Ministry of Health and Prevention – 80011111
Dubai Health Authority – 800342 – The number to book a free video or voice consultation with a doctor or connect to a local health centre
Emirates airline – 600555555
Etihad Airways – 600555666
Ambulance – 998
Knowledge and Human Development Authority – 8005432 ext. 4 for Covid-19 queries
Kanguva
Director: Siva
Stars: Suriya, Bobby Deol, Disha Patani, Yogi Babu, Redin Kingsley
MATCH INFO
Jersey 147 (20 overs)
UAE 112 (19.2 overs)
Jersey win by 35 runs
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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Company%20Profile
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Electoral College Victory
Trump has so far secured 295 Electoral College votes, according to the Associated Press, exceeding the 270 needed to win. Only Nevada and Arizona remain to be called, and both swing states are leaning Republican. Trump swept all five remaining swing states, North Carolina, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, sealing his path to victory and giving him a strong mandate.
Popular Vote Tally
The count is ongoing, but Trump currently leads with nearly 51 per cent of the popular vote to Harris’s 47.6 per cent. Trump has over 72.2 million votes, while Harris trails with approximately 67.4 million.
UPI facts
More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions
Roll of honour 2019-2020
Dubai Rugby Sevens
Winners: Dubai Hurricanes
Runners up: Bahrain
West Asia Premiership
Winners: Bahrain
Runners up: UAE Premiership
UAE Premiership
}Winners: Dubai Exiles
Runners up: Dubai Hurricanes
UAE Division One
Winners: Abu Dhabi Saracens
Runners up: Dubai Hurricanes II
UAE Division Two
Winners: Barrelhouse
Runners up: RAK Rugby
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Business Insights
- As per the document, there are six filing options, including choosing to report on a realisation basis and transitional rules for pre-tax period gains or losses.
- SMEs with revenue below Dh3 million per annum can opt for transitional relief until 2026, treating them as having no taxable income.
- Larger entities have specific provisions for asset and liability movements, business restructuring, and handling foreign permanent establishments.
STAR%20WARS%20JEDI%3A%20SURVIVOR
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The specs
Engine: 1.5-litre 4-cylinder petrol
Power: 154bhp
Torque: 250Nm
Transmission: 7-speed automatic with 8-speed sports option
Price: From Dh79,600
On sale: Now
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