The US and eurozone debt crises have ushered a new era of the improbable in currency and financial markets. This may be a good time to re-assess the UAE's policy of "pegging" the dirham in a constant relationship of Dh3.67 per US dollar.
Historically, the UAE and most Gulf economies have anchored their domestic currencies to the US dollar. But new uncertainties surrounding the dollar lead many to ask if the UAE should either a) repeg the dirham to a basket of world currencies or b) float the dirham and pursue other monetary objectives.
Let's consider the alternatives.
Repegging would likely involve a range of currencies including the euro and the pound sterling. This might allow the dirham to remain strong against other currencies, but that may not be a desirable policy objective. After all, a weak dirham increases foreign demand for both tourism and real estate - two important pillars of the UAE economy.
In addition, moving to a basket of currencies would introduce uncertainty in budgeting since oil, which is traded in dollars, remains an important part of central and sub-central government revenues.
And including sterling in the currency basket would likely achieve a strong dirham but the euro, just like the dollar, is currently beset by uncertainty - with the added risk of a eurozone break-up.
A strong dirham should not be a policy objective in itself. The positive aspects of a stronger currency have to do with lower imported inflation, but inflation is already at an all time low, below 2 per cent and the UAE's inflation volatility, which is among the highest in the world, will persist.
This has to do with having a fixed exchange rate, rather than with the particular currency or currencies chosen as an anchor.
The other option, allowing the dirham to float against other world currencies, would ostensibly allow the UAE Central Bank to set and pursue a particular inflation-targeting regime - the only viable alternative to a currency peg.
Targeting a given inflation rate essentially allows the Central Bank to set expectations for the private sector on the future rate of inflation. and allows market participants to make more informed decisions: a stable rate of inflation instills confidence in consumers and investors alike.
Inflation in the UAE, however, is largely not under government control: because this is an open economy, inflation volatility is mostly imported, making a more active role for the Central Bank exceedingly difficult.
Under the current monetary regime, the UAE has traded inflation stability for exchange rate stability - this is an additional source of inflation volatility and indeed recent figures show that the UAE has witnessed periods of extremely high inflation followed by single-digit rates of inflation.
A stable inflation rate would benefit UAE residents but economic activity would likely be negatively affected. The UAE benefits from large sums of foreign investment in the real estate sector, the banking sector, and in the form of foreign direct investment. Setting the dirham afloat would make investment returns more difficult to measure, and would remove the existing assurance that investors are not subject to domestic currency risks.
Most UAE residents are foreign and their principal objective in coming to the UAE is to save in their respective currencies. Having a dirham pegged to the dollar ensures that their savings are essentially in the world's reserve currency.
Similarly, international investors are much more interested in a stable exchange rate than in a stable inflation rate - and so should the UAE government.
To put it plainly: a floating exchange rate would encourage foreign residents to put their savings in their respective currencies (the Australian dollar, pound sterling, and so on). That would cause a fall in the value of the dirham.
The central bank, in its effort to prop up consumer confidence, would likely decrease money supply to support the value of the dirham. This would in turn generate higher interest rates and lower levels of domestic investment. The result would be negative consequences for economic growth.
The UAE Central Bank has recently made it clear that it will maintain its current monetary stance. Could the US dollar lose further ground against major currencies? In the short term, investors will be spooked by the ratings downgrade. But the long-term value of the US dollar reflects the purchasing power of the currency.
The US has a nearly $15 trillion economy, which grew at an annual rate of about 1.5 per cent in the first quarter. It is US fiscal policy - not the economy - that is unsound.
The ratings downgrade may well jolt US policy-makers into fiscal discipline, but with jittery financial markets and low investor sentiment, a fiscal remedy may spell another recessionary period.
In improbable times, the steady-as-she-goes stance of the UAE Central Bank remains the right call.
Dr Tarek Coury is an economist at the Dubai School of Government
Everybody%20Loves%20Touda
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Singham Again
Director: Rohit Shetty
Stars: Ajay Devgn, Kareena Kapoor Khan, Ranveer Singh, Akshay Kumar, Tiger Shroff, Deepika Padukone
Rating: 3/5
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
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COMPANY PROFILE
● Company: Bidzi
● Started: 2024
● Founders: Akshay Dosaj and Asif Rashid
● Based: Dubai, UAE
● Industry: M&A
● Funding size: Bootstrapped
● No of employees: Nine
The specs
Engine: 3.0-litre six-cylinder turbo
Power: 398hp from 5,250rpm
Torque: 580Nm at 1,900-4,800rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Fuel economy, combined: 6.5L/100km
On sale: December
Price: From Dh330,000 (estimate)
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: HyperSpace
Started: 2020
Founders: Alexander Heller, Rama Allen and Desi Gonzalez
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: Entertainment
Number of staff: 210
Investment raised: $75 million from investors including Galaxy Interactive, Riyadh Season, Sega Ventures and Apis Venture Partners
Cricket World Cup League 2
UAE squad
Rahul Chopra (captain), Aayan Afzal Khan, Ali Naseer, Aryansh Sharma, Basil Hameed, Dhruv Parashar, Junaid Siddique, Muhammad Farooq, Muhammad Jawadullah, Muhammad Waseem, Omid Rahman, Rahul Bhatia, Tanish Suri, Vishnu Sukumaran, Vriitya Aravind
Fixtures
Friday, November 1 – Oman v UAE
Sunday, November 3 – UAE v Netherlands
Thursday, November 7 – UAE v Oman
Saturday, November 9 – Netherlands v UAE
'Panga'
Directed by Ashwiny Iyer Tiwari
Starring Kangana Ranaut, Richa Chadha, Jassie Gill, Yagya Bhasin, Neena Gupta
Rating: 3.5/5
Company%20profile
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COMPANY PROFILE
Initial investment: Undisclosed
Investment stage: Series A
Investors: Core42
Current number of staff: 47
If you go...
Fly from Dubai or Abu Dhabi to Chiang Mai in Thailand, via Bangkok, before taking a five-hour bus ride across the Laos border to Huay Xai. The land border crossing at Huay Xai is a well-trodden route, meaning entry is swift, though travellers should be aware of visa requirements for both countries.
Flights from Dubai start at Dh4,000 return with Emirates, while Etihad flights from Abu Dhabi start at Dh2,000. Local buses can be booked in Chiang Mai from around Dh50
Results:
5pm: Conditions (PA) Dh80,000 1,400m | Winner: AF Tahoonah, Richard Mullen (jockey), Ernst Oertel (trainer)
5.30pm: Handicap (TB) Dh90,000 1,400m | Winner: Ajwad, Gerald Avranche, Rashed Bouresly
6pm: Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 1,600m | Winner: RB Lam Tara, Fabrice Veron, Eric Lemartinel
6.30pm: Handicap (PA) Dh80,000 1,600m | Winner: Duc De Faust, Szczepan Mazur, Younis Al Kalbani
7pm: Wathba Stallions Cup (PA) Dh70,000 2,200m | Winner: Shareef KB, Fabrice Veron, Ernst Oertel
7.30pm: Handicap (PA) Dh90,000 1,500m | Winner: Bainoona, Pat Cosgrave, Eric Lemartinel
Company%20Profile
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COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Almnssa
Started: August 2020
Founder: Areej Selmi
Based: Gaza
Sectors: Internet, e-commerce
Investments: Grants/private funding
'Operation Mincemeat'
Director: John Madden
Cast: Colin Firth, Matthew Macfayden, Kelly Macdonald and Penelope Wilton
Rating: 4/5
more from Janine di Giovanni
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Some of Darwish's last words
"They see their tomorrows slipping out of their reach. And though it seems to them that everything outside this reality is heaven, yet they do not want to go to that heaven. They stay, because they are afflicted with hope." - Mahmoud Darwish, to attendees of the Palestine Festival of Literature, 2008
His life in brief: Born in a village near Galilee, he lived in exile for most of his life and started writing poetry after high school. He was arrested several times by Israel for what were deemed to be inciteful poems. Most of his work focused on the love and yearning for his homeland, and he was regarded the Palestinian poet of resistance. Over the course of his life, he published more than 30 poetry collections and books of prose, with his work translated into more than 20 languages. Many of his poems were set to music by Arab composers, most significantly Marcel Khalife. Darwish died on August 9, 2008 after undergoing heart surgery in the United States. He was later buried in Ramallah where a shrine was erected in his honour.
Jigra
Starring: Alia Bhatt, Vedang Raina, Manoj Pahwa, Harsh Singh
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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Moon Music
Artist: Coldplay
Label: Parlophone/Atlantic
Number of tracks: 10
Rating: 3/5
Nepotism is the name of the game
Salman Khan’s father, Salim Khan, is one of Bollywood’s most legendary screenwriters. Through his partnership with co-writer Javed Akhtar, Salim is credited with having paved the path for the Indian film industry’s blockbuster format in the 1970s. Something his son now rules the roost of. More importantly, the Salim-Javed duo also created the persona of the “angry young man” for Bollywood megastar Amitabh Bachchan in the 1970s, reflecting the angst of the average Indian. In choosing to be the ordinary man’s “hero” as opposed to a thespian in new Bollywood, Salman Khan remains tightly linked to his father’s oeuvre. Thanks dad.
THE%20SPECS
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Specs
Engine: 3.0L twin-turbo V6
Gearbox: 10-speed automatic
Power: 405hp at 5,500rpm
Torque: 562Nm at 3,000rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 11.2L/100km
Price: From Dh292,845 (Reserve); from Dh320,145 (Presidential)
On sale: Now
Thank You for Banking with Us
Director: Laila Abbas
Starring: Yasmine Al Massri, Clara Khoury, Kamel El Basha, Ashraf Barhoum
Rating: 4/5
The biog
Hobby: Playing piano and drawing patterns
Best book: Awaken the Giant Within by Tony Robbins
Food of choice: Sushi
Favourite colour: Orange
Sri Lanka-India Test series schedule
- 1st Test India won by 304 runs at Galle
- 2nd Test India won by innings and 53 runs at Colombo
- 3rd Test August 12-16 at Pallekele
How to protect yourself when air quality drops
Install an air filter in your home.
Close your windows and turn on the AC.
Shower or bath after being outside.
Wear a face mask.
Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.
If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.
The specs
Engine: 77.4kW all-wheel-drive dual motor
Power: 320bhp
Torque: 605Nm
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Price: From Dh219,000
On sale: Now
How to help
Call the hotline on 0502955999 or send "thenational" to the following numbers:
2289 - Dh10
2252 - Dh50
6025 - Dh20
6027 - Dh100
6026 - Dh200
The specs
Engine: 2-litre or 3-litre 4Motion all-wheel-drive Power: 250Nm (2-litre); 340 (3-litre) Torque: 450Nm Transmission: 8-speed automatic Starting price: From Dh212,000 On sale: Now
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Semi-final fixtures
Portugal v Chile, 7pm, today
Germany v Mexico, 7pm, tomorrow
APPLE IPAD MINI (A17 PRO)
Display: 21cm Liquid Retina Display, 2266 x 1488, 326ppi, 500 nits
Chip: Apple A17 Pro, 6-core CPU, 5-core GPU, 16-core Neural Engine
Storage: 128/256/512GB
Main camera: 12MP wide, f/1.8, digital zoom up to 5x, Smart HDR 4
Front camera: 12MP ultra-wide, f/2.4, Smart HDR 4, full-HD @ 25/30/60fps
Biometrics: Touch ID, Face ID
Colours: Blue, purple, space grey, starlight
In the box: iPad mini, USB-C cable, 20W USB-C power adapter
Price: From Dh2,099
COMPANY PROFILE
Founders: Alhaan Ahmed, Alyina Ahmed and Maximo Tettamanzi
Total funding: Self funded
Voices: How A Great Singer Can Change Your Life
Nick Coleman
Jonathan Cape
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