Last week former Israeli Mossad chief Tamir Pardo proposed an idea that, he said, would “defeat” Hezbollah. Mr Pardo recommended that the US impose sanctions on Lebanon. These would be much more effective than a war against the party, he said, if "there was a clear message that sanctions would only be removed if Hezbollah gave up its arms or was absorbed entirely into the Lebanese army and Iran [withdrew] its tentacles completely from Lebanon”.
In making such a suggestion, the former Mossad official adopted an increasingly familiar line of those who are desperately searching for a way to be rid of Hezbollah. Amid signs of the party's predominance in Lebanon – a model that has evidently appealed to its allies throughout the Middle East, including the Houthis – an increasing number of voices have suggested targeting Lebanese national institutions as a way of curbing Hezbollah's power.
Proponents of this approach reject the warning that destroying the institutions of the Lebanese state (and sanctions would certainly push the fragile economy over the edge) can only favour Hezbollah. They argue that because the party controls many of these institutions, undermining them would harm the party. So they blithely suggest that attacking the state, its economy and army, would lead to the magical end to which they aspire, namely Hezbollah's downfall.
The problem with this idea, apart from the folly of creating another failed state in the region, is that it offers a superficial understanding of how Lebanon functions. It is undeniable that Hezbollah has major influence over the country but it is also true that the institutions of the state and Lebanese society respond to a much broader array of interests that in many cases are antithetical to Hezbollah’s, even if the group’s weapons make effective opposition difficult.
______________
Read more:
Lebanon must not be haven for Houthis after Hezbollah meeting
Tony Blair institute calls on Europe to ban Hezbollah
______________
If one is expecting easy solutions with regard to Hezbollah, that won’t happen. Harming the state only risks undermining latent poles of opposition to the party. And Mr Pardo’s “solution” is unlikely to be more successful than other efforts to make Lebanon pay a price for Hezbollah.
For starters, the Iranian regime couldn’t care less about Lebanon’s economy. Moreover, Mr Pardo’s proposal is built on a false premise. He believes that economic pain would push the Lebanese to act against the party. But for many of them, turning against Hezbollah would entail provoking civil conflict, because the party will not voluntarily dissolve itself or cut ties with Tehran. In fact, it will resist doing so. Between economic pain and the pain of civil war, the Lebanese will choose the former.
Then there is the fact that the Lebanese have already paid a heavy price for Hezbollah and there was little they could do about this. In 2006, the party provoked a war with Israel that destroyed Lebanon's infrastructure and led to almost two years of instability as the parliamentary majority and Hezbollah confronted each other.
The impact of this on Hezbollah’s fortunes was limited. But destroying the Lebanese economy and impoverishing much of society will only erode the power of a state that represents an alternative model to Hezbollah’s. What governments have realised is that this notion of an alternative model is essential. In certain situations where its power has slipped, the party has had to rely on the state, which the state exploited to cross previous red lines imposed by Hezbollah.
By embodying an alternative to the party, the state might be able one day to tilt the balance to its advantage. In the late 1980s, popular exasperation with wartime militias made many people support the Lebanese army with greater vigour. The army commander at the time benefited from this mood and happens to be Lebanon’s president today.
Certainly, such a process will be slow but undermining the state and economy would only play into Hezbollah’s hands. Hezbollah has always sought to discredit the state because what the state gains, the party loses. Systematically, Hezbollah has striven to undercut the state’s and army’s credibility to cover up for its own shortcomings. So pushing foreign countries to add to this by targeting the Lebanese state would only allow Hezbollah to pursue its agenda without credible state institutions left in place to act as rallying points for its opponents.
Recommending collective punishment is a familiar arrow in the quiver of Israeli officials. But rarely does it seem to work. If anything, it heightens polarisation that only benefits those advocating for the strongest line, in this case Hezbollah, which has the guns to make its arguments prevail. Mr Pardo is like all the others who believe they have found the silver bullet that will resolve the Hezbollah problem. He imagines that more ruin will advance things.
But the Israelis have bombed Lebanon on countless occasions, just as they have Gaza. Yet none of this has changed much, except to strengthen the argument of Hezbollah and Hamas that the military option against Israel is the only valid one. Israel or the US can severely damage Lebanon's state and society with little effort. However, in the end, there is a very high probability that Hezbollah will be left standing alone, with no one in a position to question its actions.
Michael Young is editor of Diwan, the blog of the Carnegie Middle East programme, in Beirut
Match info
Liverpool 4
Salah (19'), Mane (45 2', 53'), Sturridge (87')
West Ham United 0
Electoral College Victory
Trump has so far secured 295 Electoral College votes, according to the Associated Press, exceeding the 270 needed to win. Only Nevada and Arizona remain to be called, and both swing states are leaning Republican. Trump swept all five remaining swing states, North Carolina, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, sealing his path to victory and giving him a strong mandate.
Popular Vote Tally
The count is ongoing, but Trump currently leads with nearly 51 per cent of the popular vote to Harris’s 47.6 per cent. Trump has over 72.2 million votes, while Harris trails with approximately 67.4 million.
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Almnssa
Started: August 2020
Founder: Areej Selmi
Based: Gaza
Sectors: Internet, e-commerce
Investments: Grants/private funding
Citadel: Honey Bunny first episode
Directors: Raj & DK
Stars: Varun Dhawan, Samantha Ruth Prabhu, Kashvi Majmundar, Kay Kay Menon
Rating: 4/5
Disclaimer
Director: Alfonso Cuaron
Stars: Cate Blanchett, Kevin Kline, Lesley Manville
Rating: 4/5
Scoreline:
Manchester City 1
Jesus 4'
Brighton 0
THE SPECS
Engine: 6.75-litre twin-turbocharged V12 petrol engine
Power: 420kW
Torque: 780Nm
Transmission: 8-speed automatic
Price: From Dh1,350,000
On sale: Available for preorder now
Bio
Born in Dubai in 1994
Her father is a retired Emirati police officer and her mother is originally from Kuwait
She Graduated from the American University of Sharjah in 2015 and is currently working on her Masters in Communication from the University of Sharjah.
Her favourite film is Pacific Rim, directed by Guillermo del Toro
Business Insights
- Canada and Mexico are significant energy suppliers to the US, providing the majority of oil and natural gas imports
- The introduction of tariffs could hinder the US's clean energy initiatives by raising input costs for materials like nickel
- US domestic suppliers might benefit from higher prices, but overall oil consumption is expected to decrease due to elevated costs
The Library: A Catalogue of Wonders
Stuart Kells, Counterpoint Press
The specs
Engine: 3.0-litre six-cylinder turbo
Power: 398hp from 5,250rpm
Torque: 580Nm at 1,900-4,800rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Fuel economy, combined: 6.5L/100km
On sale: December
Price: From Dh330,000 (estimate)
APPLE IPAD MINI (A17 PRO)
Display: 21cm Liquid Retina Display, 2266 x 1488, 326ppi, 500 nits
Chip: Apple A17 Pro, 6-core CPU, 5-core GPU, 16-core Neural Engine
Storage: 128/256/512GB
Main camera: 12MP wide, f/1.8, digital zoom up to 5x, Smart HDR 4
Front camera: 12MP ultra-wide, f/2.4, Smart HDR 4, full-HD @ 25/30/60fps
Biometrics: Touch ID, Face ID
Colours: Blue, purple, space grey, starlight
In the box: iPad mini, USB-C cable, 20W USB-C power adapter
Price: From Dh2,099
The specs
Engine: Dual 180kW and 300kW front and rear motors
Power: 480kW
Torque: 850Nm
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Price: From Dh359,900 ($98,000)
On sale: Now
The specs
Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
Power: 620hp from 5,750-7,500rpm
Torque: 760Nm from 3,000-5,750rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed dual-clutch auto
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh1.05 million ($286,000)
Company%20profile
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How to help
Send “thenational” to the following numbers or call the hotline on: 0502955999
2289 – Dh10
2252 – Dh 50
6025 – Dh20
6027 – Dh 100
6026 – Dh 200
How to protect yourself when air quality drops
Install an air filter in your home.
Close your windows and turn on the AC.
Shower or bath after being outside.
Wear a face mask.
Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.
If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.
Company%20profile
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UAE%20athletes%20heading%20to%20Paris%202024
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Kanguva
Director: Siva
Stars: Suriya, Bobby Deol, Disha Patani, Yogi Babu, Redin Kingsley
COMPANY%20PROFILE%20
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COMPANY%20PROFILE
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Wicked
Director: Jon M Chu
Stars: Cynthia Erivo, Ariana Grande, Jonathan Bailey
PROFILE OF SWVL
Started: April 2017
Founders: Mostafa Kandil, Ahmed Sabbah and Mahmoud Nouh
Based: Cairo, Egypt
Sector: transport
Size: 450 employees
Investment: approximately $80 million
Investors include: Dubai’s Beco Capital, US’s Endeavor Catalyst, China’s MSA, Egypt’s Sawari Ventures, Sweden’s Vostok New Ventures, Property Finder CEO Michael Lahyani
Business Insights
- As per the document, there are six filing options, including choosing to report on a realisation basis and transitional rules for pre-tax period gains or losses.
- SMEs with revenue below Dh3 million per annum can opt for transitional relief until 2026, treating them as having no taxable income.
- Larger entities have specific provisions for asset and liability movements, business restructuring, and handling foreign permanent establishments.
The specs
Engine: 2.7-litre 4-cylinder Turbomax
Power: 310hp
Torque: 583Nm
Transmission: 8-speed automatic
Price: From Dh192,500
On sale: Now
Generation Start-up: Awok company profile
Started: 2013
Founder: Ulugbek Yuldashev
Sector: e-commerce
Size: 600 plus
Stage: still in talks with VCs
Principal Investors: self-financed by founder
The specs
Engine: Direct injection 4-cylinder 1.4-litre
Power: 150hp
Torque: 250Nm
Price: From Dh139,000
On sale: Now
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: HyperSpace
Started: 2020
Founders: Alexander Heller, Rama Allen and Desi Gonzalez
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: Entertainment
Number of staff: 210
Investment raised: $75 million from investors including Galaxy Interactive, Riyadh Season, Sega Ventures and Apis Venture Partners
