People walk in front of the poster of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan which reads, 'Thank you Istanbul' at Taksim Square in Istanbul, Turkey, 26 June 2018. Turkish Electoral Commission on 26 June announced Mr Erdogan had won the presidential elections. Sedat Suna / EPA
People walk in front of the poster of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan which reads, 'Thank you Istanbul' at Taksim Square in Istanbul, Turkey, 26 June 2018. Turkish Electoral Commission on 26 JuShow more

Turkey's Erdogan has perfected electioneering at the expense of democracy



In the early hours of Monday morning, President Recep Tayipp Erdogan took to the balcony of his party’s headquarters in Ankara to address thousands of supporters, declaring democracy the winner in an election that was "an example for the rest of the world."

And what an example it was – with allegations of vote fraud, reports of a gun fight, 14 people arrested for interfering with results, and a result apparently called three days earlier in an accidental TV broadcast. An army of volunteer observers were brought in by the opposition in a bid to curtail the inevitable tampering with ballot boxes, and yet many were intimidated and even attacked.

The farce didn’t end once the polls closed, either – with the state run news agency the only media allowed to report the results as they unfolded, they gave Mr Erdogan a clear early lead. However, with an independent monitor and the high electoral board disputing many of the figures, confusion reigned.

Eventually, Mr Erdogan went on TV to declare himself the victor according to "unofficial results”, while, simultaneously, the opposition were announcing he'd failed to secure a majority in the presidental vote, which would result in a runoff election. His most credible challenger, Muharrem Ince, then supposedly conceded via WhatsApp, with his supporters hitting social media to condemned the "worst break-up text ever."

If this was a lesson to the world on democratic elections, then it was one on how not to run one.

And when congratulations began to pour in for the president for his election as the new president, some long before there were any conclusive results, it was hard not to judge the man by the company he keeps. Among the early callers were the emir of Qatar and Hungary’s Prime Minister Victor Orban, a man who boasts that his country has become an “illiberal democracy”.

It was a tense and emotional day, but for many the hardest part was knowing that the results could have been different if the elections had been fought on a free and fair playing field. As condemned in a report from the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe, the opposition had their fundamental freedoms restricted. They were up against the manipulation of voting district boundaries, an aggressive campaign of disinformation and deliberate rousing of nationalist fervour through military campaigns. They were not allowed to campaign freely and barely appeared in the Turkish media, which is largely now loyal to the state.

There was little democratic about this election, and it was strongly brought into focus by the fact that the one-time leader of the country’s Kurdish-focused political party, Selahattin Demirtas, was forced to run for  president from his prison cell after he was arrested 20 months ago.

He and many of the more than 140,000 people who have been detained since a state of emergency was imposed following a failed coup in 2016 would have been watching the results unfold nervously. The state of emergency has allowed Mr Erdogan to effectively rule by decree, and that is something that has now been cemented as part of his sweeping new powers.

It does not look good for those who fall short of his rule now that he is head of state under the new system. In the short time since the election, there have already been more detentions of those accused of supporting the cleric the government hold responsible for the coup.

And for people like Taner Kilic, a human rights lawyer and the Chair of Amnesty International in Turkey, the country they woke up to on Monday morning would have looked the same, but different. He has been held on terror charges for over a year, with a court ruling that his pre-trial detention be continued just three days before the election, despite there apparently being no evidence against him.

And Zehra Dogan, who is serving more than two years in prison for a painting that showed the destruction caused by Turkish security forces in the Kurdish-majority south east. She was one of the founders of Turkey’s first women’s news agency and was honoured with a Courage in Journalism Awards last week.

The outlook looks bleak for those who have dared to stand against the president, and those who do in the future. If the recent elections represent the pinnacle of Turkish democracy, then representative government in Turkey is in a sorry state indeed.

Liz Cookman is The National's assistant national editor

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BEETLEJUICE BEETLEJUICE

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Director: Tim Burton

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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

How to protect yourself when air quality drops

Install an air filter in your home.

Close your windows and turn on the AC.

Shower or bath after being outside.

Wear a face mask.

Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.

If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.

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