US vice presidential picks rarely influence an election's outcome since Americans typically vote for or against a presidential candidate. But presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden's running mate, Senator Kamala Harris, is surely more significant than usual.
Mr Biden seems at present well-positioned to win, with a large national lead over Mr Trump. That has been sustained for many weeks without the usual ebb and flow. Mr Trump does not appear to be adapting to a profoundly altered context. The style that worked so well for him four years ago now seems predictable, flat and out of touch – except to his most ardent supporters.
Particularly jarring are patently absurd claims by Mr Trump and some of his allies that, as the child of Jamaican and Indian immigrants born in California, Ms Harris is somehow ineligible to serve as president. It is a painful reminder of equally preposterous claims, championed by Mr Trump, that his predecessor in the White House, Barack Obama, was similarly ineligible. Both claims are redolent of the notorious 1857 Dred Scott Supreme Court ruling that black people were not US citizens.
There is an evident sense of buyer's remorse concerning Mr Trump among independents and moderate Republicans, especially suburban women.
The highly polarised US political environment makes dramatic swings of opinion far less likely than in the past. This will be an election centred on healthcare and jobs. With the coronavirus continuing to spread aggressively in the US, while most of the West is reopening, and the economy sinking to depression levels, it is hard to see how Mr Trump can turn things around in the few remaining weeks before November 3.
Ms Harris bears particular scrutiny because, at 78, Mr Biden would be by far the oldest incoming US president, and the main role of a vice president is to serve as a replacement-in-waiting. Indeed, that is one of the reasons Mr Biden chose her. She was one of the most accomplished of the women on his shortlist and is plainly qualified to be president.
So, not only would she be Mr Biden's most obvious successor, she might even come into office sooner than that.
Therefore, her views on Middle Eastern affairs seem far more significant than, for example, those of Mr Trump's vice president, Mike Pence.
Ms Harris is not a foreign policy specialist, but as a senator, she has grappled with a number of Middle Eastern issues. While Mr Trump and his allies are painting her and the strikingly moderate Mr Biden as dangerous left-wing extremists, her foreign policy orientation is closer to the Democratic mainstream than the far-left typified by Senator Bernie Sanders.
In the party’s tradition, she is a strong supporter of Israel and her husband's Jewish identity may have helped shape such views. Ms Harris sought to block UN Security Council Resolution 2334 which, at the end of Mr Obama's presidency, the US controversially did not veto. It clearly labels Israeli settlement activity as illegal.
She opposes the Boycott Divestment and Sanctions movement, but, citing the importance of free speech, voted to block state measures to punish BDS advocacy. And while she claims that Israel "overall" meets international human rights standards, she remains a vocal supporter of a two-state solution, opposes settlements and annexation, including the Trump plan, and backs the restoration of US aid to the Palestinians.
These positions match those of Mr Biden and key Democratic leaders. They suggest a Biden-Harris administration would be very supportive of the recent initiative to establish relations between Israel and the UAE. Ms Harris is precisely the kind of Democratic leader whose views towards the UAE may be greatly enhanced by it.
She acknowledges the partnership between the US and Saudi Arabia, but she has called for more pressure to promote "US values" in the Gulf
As the traditional bipartisan approach to foreign policy evolves, congressional attitudes towards the region underscore the importance of that.
The war in Yemen has drawn strong disapproval from Congress. Ms Harris has condemned the conflict as causing an unacceptable degree of civilian suffering.
She voted in favour of resolutions to end US support for the Arab intervention in Yemen. Mr Trump vetoed this and other resolutions, but they showed there was some bipartisan disagreement over the conflict. Yet all such resolutions made an exception for the war against Al Qaeda in the south of the country, which is among the UAE's top priorities in Yemen, and endorsed US participation in that campaign
Ms Harris acknowledges the long-standing partnership between the US and Saudi Arabia, and its ongoing importance, but she has called for more pressure to promote "US values" in the Gulf. Like Mr Biden, her positions suggest a likely continuation of the strong US affiliation with Gulf Arab countries, although with a broader agenda than Mr Trump's exclusive concern with military and commercial relations.
Like almost all Democrats, she criticised Mr Trump's withdrawal from the nuclear deal with Iran. And after the killing of Iranian General Qassem Suleimani who she affirmed was "an enemy of the United States", she joined efforts to block funding for additional military actions against Iran.
Like Mr Biden, she supports the revival of an assertive, internationalist and multilateral US foreign policy. The most likely consequences of that are continued support for Gulf Arab countries but tempered with more pressure on a number of issues, the reassertion of diplomacy from a position of strength with Iran, and sustained robust support for both Israel and a two-state solution.
That doesn't mean a rapid return to the Iran nuclear deal, necessarily, or removing the US Embassy from Jerusalem. But it does mean that while a Biden-Harris administration might place greater emphasis on diplomacy over coercion and commerce, concerns that it would be unduly dovish, defeatist, or disinterested in the Middle East are probably misplaced.
Much of Mr Biden's core foreign policy team is drawn from former Obama administration officials, but they claim to have learned their lessons from past mistakes. If they have, they would probably find in Ms Harris a like-minded tough and internationalist leader, but with a commitment to values and a rules-based order, if that can still be recuperated.
Hussein Ibish is a senior resident scholar at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington
MATCH INFO
Confederations Cup Group B
Germany v Chile
Kick-off: Thursday, 10pm (UAE)
Where: Kazan Arena, Kazan
Watch live: Abu Dhabi Sports HD
Dubai Creek Open in numbers
- The Dubai Creek Open is the 10th tournament on this year's Mena Tour
- It is the first of five events before the season-concluding Mena Tour Championship
- This week's field comprises 120 players, 21 of which are amateurs
- 15 previous Mena Tour winners are competing at Dubai Creek Golf and Yacht Club
CONFIRMED%20LINE-UP
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Roll%20of%20Honour%2C%20men%E2%80%99s%20domestic%20rugby%20season
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EWest%20Asia%20Premiership%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EChampions%3A%20Dubai%20Tigers%0D%3Cbr%3ERunners%20up%3A%20Bahrain%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EUAE%20Premiership%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EChampions%3A%20Jebel%20Ali%20Dragons%0D%3Cbr%3ERunners%20up%3A%20Dubai%20Hurricanes%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EUAE%20Division%201%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EChampions%3A%20Dubai%20Sharks%0D%3Cbr%3ERunners%20up%3A%20Abu%20Dhabi%20Harlequins%20II%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EUAE%20Division%202%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EChampions%3A%20Dubai%20Tigers%20III%0D%3Cbr%3ERunners%20up%3A%20Dubai%20Sharks%20II%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDubai%20Sevens%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EChampions%3A%20Dubai%20Tigers%0D%3Cbr%3ERunners%20up%3A%20Dubai%20Hurricanes%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Brief scores:
Scotland 371-5, 50 overs (C MacLeod 140 no, K Coetzer 58, G Munsey 55)
England 365 all out, 48.5 overs (J Bairstow 105, A Hales 52; M Watt 3-55)
Result: Scotland won by six runs
Director: Laxman Utekar
Cast: Vicky Kaushal, Akshaye Khanna, Diana Penty, Vineet Kumar Singh, Rashmika Mandanna
Rating: 1/5
Tips for SMEs to cope
- Adapt your business model. Make changes that are future-proof to the new normal
- Make sure you have an online presence
- Open communication with suppliers, especially if they are international. Look for local suppliers to avoid delivery delays
- Open communication with customers to see how they are coping and be flexible about extending terms, etc
Courtesy: Craig Moore, founder and CEO of Beehive, which provides term finance and working capital finance to SMEs. Only SMEs that have been trading for two years are eligible for funding from Beehive.
How to watch Ireland v Pakistan in UAE
When: The one-off Test starts on Friday, May 11
What time: Each day’s play is scheduled to start at 2pm UAE time.
TV: The match will be broadcast on OSN Sports Cricket HD. Subscribers to the channel can also stream the action live on OSN Play.
SPEC%20SHEET%3A%20APPLE%20M3%20MACBOOK%20AIR%20(13%22)
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Real estate tokenisation project
Dubai launched the pilot phase of its real estate tokenisation project last month.
The initiative focuses on converting real estate assets into digital tokens recorded on blockchain technology and helps in streamlining the process of buying, selling and investing, the Dubai Land Department said.
Dubai’s real estate tokenisation market is projected to reach Dh60 billion ($16.33 billion) by 2033, representing 7 per cent of the emirate’s total property transactions, according to the DLD.
World Cup final
Who: France v Croatia
When: Sunday, July 15, 7pm (UAE)
TV: Game will be shown live on BeIN Sports for viewers in the Mena region
How to volunteer
The UAE volunteers campaign can be reached at www.volunteers.ae , or by calling 800-VOLAE (80086523), or emailing info@volunteers.ae.
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
How to wear a kandura
Dos
- Wear the right fabric for the right season and occasion
- Always ask for the dress code if you don’t know
- Wear a white kandura, white ghutra / shemagh (headwear) and black shoes for work
- Wear 100 per cent cotton under the kandura as most fabrics are polyester
Don’ts
- Wear hamdania for work, always wear a ghutra and agal
- Buy a kandura only based on how it feels; ask questions about the fabric and understand what you are buying
A Prayer Before Dawn
Director: Jean-Stephane Sauvaire
Starring: Joe Cole, Somluck Kamsing, Panya Yimmumphai
Three stars
Three ways to boost your credit score
Marwan Lutfi says the core fundamentals that drive better payment behaviour and can improve your credit score are:
1. Make sure you make your payments on time;
2. Limit the number of products you borrow on: the more loans and credit cards you have, the more it will affect your credit score;
3. Don't max out all your debts: how much you maximise those credit facilities will have an impact. If you have five credit cards and utilise 90 per cent of that credit, it will negatively affect your score.
Lexus LX700h specs
Engine: 3.4-litre twin-turbo V6 plus supplementary electric motor
Power: 464hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 790Nm from 2,000-3,600rpm
Transmission: 10-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 11.7L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh590,000
