After nearly a decade during which America's allies in Middle East have felt neglected by Washington, the new national security strategy outlined by Donald Trump this week should provide some reassurance that America intends to reclaim its leadership role in the region.
During former president Barack Obama's eight-year tenure, relations between the White House and its long-standing allies in the region became strained, to say the least. Tensions first arose during the Arab Spring, when Mr Obama preferred to support populist uprisings at the expense of governments with close ties to Washington. Mr Obama's decision, for example, to back the overthrow of Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak was, in retrospect, a watershed moment, one that showed pro-Western Arab states that they could no longer rely on American support and protection.
This grave misjudgment by the Obama administration was further compounded by Mr Obama's half-hearted approach to dealing with the Syrian conflict, where his failure to carry out his promise to launch military action against the Assad regime if it resorted to chemical weapons destroyed his credibility.
Mr Obama’s failure to display firm leadership over Syria, together with his decision to withdraw from Iraq in 2011, opened the way for the vacuum to be filled by militant groups such as ISIL and Iran’s Revolutionary Guards.
The result is that the region is suffering widespread political instability on a level not seen in a generation.
But if Mr Trump’s national security strategy is to be taken at face value, then the era when the region’s malcontents have been able to take advantage of the failures in American leadership is now drawing to a close.
Instead of the “leadership from behind” mantra that was so popular with the Obama administration, Mr Trump’s strategy sends a clear signal that the senior security figures in his administration, many of whom have first-hand experience of working in the region, are no longer prepared to give Washington’s enemies a free pass.
On the contrary, the fact that the document explicitly confirms Iran’s designation as being a “rogue state” represents a complete reversal of the Obama administration’s approach, which was more interested in appeasing the ayatollahs in its desperation to keep the flawed nuclear deal alive.
Instead of turning a blind eye to Iran’s unwelcome meddling in the affairs of a number of Arab states, from Syria to Yemen, the strategy identifies Iran as being the primary competitor to American interests in the region.
The 55-page document also sends a thinly veiled warning to countries like Qatar, who continue to fund and sponsor Islamist groups with links to terrorism.
Rather than turning a blind eye, Mr Trump wants to foster development to make sure the region does not become a “safe haven or breeding ground for jihadist terrorists, not dominated by any power hostile to the United States, and that contributes to a stable energy market.”
Nor is it just with regard to the Middle East that Mr Trump is signalling a radical shift in American policy-making. To my mind, one of the more defining passages in the new strategy is where it highlights the failings of so-called the “soft power” approach many Western powers have adopted since fall of the Iron Curtain. This policy was encouraged by leading American academics who argued that, as the age of major conflicts and global rivalries was drawing to an end, nations would be able to settle their differences through diplomacy rather than raw military might.
But as the document makes clear, this “end of history” approach has failed to persuade rogue states to behave responsibly and uphold their international obligations. Instead, it has enabled countries like Iran to increase their support for terrorism, and allowed rival powers such as China and Russia to strengthen their economic and military positions at the expense of the US.
This is an approach the Trump administration is no longer prepared to countenance. The document takes issue with “policies based on the assumption that engagement with rivals and their inclusion in international institutions and global commerce would turn them into benign actors and trustworthy partners. For the most part, this premise turned out to be false.”
You only have to look at the political landscape of the Middle East today to see how this policy has failed. The Obama administration's woeful neglect of the region has allowed Russia to establish a level of influence that the Kremlin could only have dreamed of a decade ago.
Meanwhile, the missile fired by Houthi rebels earlier this week at the Saudi capital Riyadh, which US officials believe was provided by Iran, is yet another graphic illustration of the Iranian regime's increasing involvement in the region's conflict.
But given the Trump administration’s uncompromising stance towards Iran, which it regards as “the world’s most significant state sponsor of terrorism”, it is unlikely Tehran will be able to get away with such provocative behaviour for much longer. And that will good news for those pro-Western states in the region who yearn for the return of strong and effective leadership from the White House.
Poacher
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New Zealand 57-0 South Africa
Tries: Rieko Ioane, Nehe Milner-Skudder (2), Scott Barrett, Brodie Retallick, Ofa Tu'ungfasi, Lima Sopoaga, Codie Taylor. Conversions: Beauden Barrett (7). Penalty: Beauden Barrett
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Korean Film Festival 2019 line-up
Innocent Witness, June 26 at 7pm
On Your Wedding Day, June 27 at 7pm
The Great Battle, June 27 at 9pm
The Witch: Part 1. The Subversion, June 28 at 4pm
Romang, June 28 at 6pm
Mal Mo E: The Secret Mission, June 28 at 8pm
Underdog, June 29 at 2pm
Nearby Sky, June 29 at 4pm
A Resistance, June 29 at 6pm
How to protect yourself when air quality drops
Install an air filter in your home.
Close your windows and turn on the AC.
Shower or bath after being outside.
Wear a face mask.
Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.
If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Almnssa
Started: August 2020
Founder: Areej Selmi
Based: Gaza
Sectors: Internet, e-commerce
Investments: Grants/private funding
The bio
Date of Birth: April 25, 1993
Place of Birth: Dubai, UAE
Marital Status: Single
School: Al Sufouh in Jumeirah, Dubai
University: Emirates Airline National Cadet Programme and Hamdan University
Job Title: Pilot, First Officer
Number of hours flying in a Boeing 777: 1,200
Number of flights: Approximately 300
Hobbies: Exercising
Nicest destination: Milan, New Zealand, Seattle for shopping
Least nice destination: Kabul, but someone has to do it. It’s not scary but at least you can tick the box that you’ve been
Favourite place to visit: Dubai, there’s no place like home
The specs
Engine: 1.5-litre turbo
Power: 181hp
Torque: 230Nm
Transmission: 6-speed automatic
Starting price: Dh79,000
On sale: Now
COMPANY PROFILE
Initial investment: Undisclosed
Investment stage: Series A
Investors: Core42
Current number of staff: 47
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Company%20Profile
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JOKE'S%20ON%20YOU
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Moon Music
Artist: Coldplay
Label: Parlophone/Atlantic
Number of tracks: 10
Rating: 3/5
Jigra
Starring: Alia Bhatt, Vedang Raina, Manoj Pahwa, Harsh Singh
The specs
Engine: 77.4kW all-wheel-drive dual motor
Power: 320bhp
Torque: 605Nm
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Price: From Dh219,000
On sale: Now
The specs
Engine: 1.5-litre 4-cylinder petrol
Power: 154bhp
Torque: 250Nm
Transmission: 7-speed automatic with 8-speed sports option
Price: From Dh79,600
On sale: Now
Pathaan
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Our legal columnist
Name: Yousef Al Bahar
Advocate at Al Bahar & Associate Advocates and Legal Consultants, established in 1994
Education: Mr Al Bahar was born in 1979 and graduated in 2008 from the Judicial Institute. He took after his father, who was one of the first Emirati lawyers
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: HyperSpace
Started: 2020
Founders: Alexander Heller, Rama Allen and Desi Gonzalez
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: Entertainment
Number of staff: 210
Investment raised: $75 million from investors including Galaxy Interactive, Riyadh Season, Sega Ventures and Apis Venture Partners
Company profile
Name: Tratok Portal
Founded: 2017
Based: UAE
Sector: Travel & tourism
Size: 36 employees
Funding: Privately funded
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
The%20Roundup
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