If you know any 48-year-old white American males without a college education, maybe say something nice to them. They are in a group which is having a hard time. That broadly is the conclusion of a hugely informative study by two academics, David Blanchflower and Andrew Oswald entitled Trends in Extreme Distress in the United States 1993-2019.
This "extreme distress" is something Donald Trump touched upon last week in his final presidential debate with Joe Biden, when he spoke of the opioid crisis, alcoholism, and suicides affecting many families across the US – including, as it happens, the families of both presidential candidates.
The Blanchflower-Oswald research is based on data of 8.1 million randomly sampled US citizens. As the authors put it, the figures reveal “a sense of exceptional bleakness of life” resulting in “increasing numbers of deaths of despair among midlife white US persons with low levels of educational attainment.”
This has been attributed to those who are so unhappy with their lives that “they have reacted by committing suicide and taking dangerous quantities of opioids and alcohol.” By “extreme distress” the authors mean that these unhappy people say to themselves “every day of my life is a bad day” for 30 days in a row.
Like the imagined 48-year-old I mentioned earlier, the numbers of middle aged white American men repeatedly having “bad days” rose from five per cent in 1993 to 11 per cent in 2019 – more than doubling. So what is going on?
In their public speeches Mr Biden points the finger at Mr Trump, and Mr Trump points at Mr Biden. The truth is that this unhappiness rose through the Democratic presidencies of Clinton and Obama, as well as the Republican presidencies of George W Bush and Mr Trump himself.
Reminiscences of the America of the 1950s and 1960s will not fix the America of the 2020s
The study’s authors suggest something much more fundamental than the day-to-day politics of whichever party is in the White House. It is a profound and irreversible change to the jobs market in the US and worldwide.
The authors say that the strongest statistical predictor of extreme distress is when someone says "I am unable to work," connected to what appears to be the irreversible decline in manufacturing jobs. Bruce Springsteen's elegy to the decline of "Rust Belt" America, "My Hometown," dates from the 1980s.
It is a lament for lost steel and car plant jobs and ultimately the death of the postwar American dream, in which Springsteen’s foreman says that the jobs “are going, boys / And they ain’t coming back.”
He was prophetic. One consequence, apparently, is that by 2019, opioid deaths in the US reached 50,000 for the first time, according to provisional data from the US Centres for Disease Control and Prevention. That accounted for more than two thirds of the 71,000 fatal overdoses in the US from all drugs.
During the presidential election campaign Covid-19 and race relations have been two of the most obvious hot button issues, but the research suggests that for many manual workers – whose parents and grandparents had well-paying jobs in manufacturing – in their “hometowns,” the American dream is dead or dying.
In Mr Trump’s case he has in the past been protective of yesterday’s industries – coal, old fashioned steel and car plants relying on the internal combustion engine.
The challenge for whoever wins the 2020 election is a challenge for leaders all over the world. Artificial intelligence, climate change, online remote working and even coronavirus, have changed the way we live and also the way we work. Populism is often backward looking.
Mr Trump’s famous slogan “Make America Great Again” is a perfect example. It brilliantly captured the distress of those whose pain shines through the Blanchflower-Oswald study and who believe their parents and grandparents did better. But reminiscences of the America of the 1950s and 1960s will not fix the America of the 2020s. High-paying employers are those that demand exceptional skills from workers.
Mostly that means a college education for good jobs with Apple, Google and Silicon Valley start-ups. The alternative economy – that of Uber and Amazon – is generally of the low skill, low paid variety.
The middle America of the once great middle class of skilled craftsmen and women has been squeezed for years. The consequent unhappiness will not be solved by one vote this November, but it might at least be recognised.
The American pollster Frank Luntz has worked with Republican candidates for decades. In 2016, Luntz says, millions of voters turned to Mr Trump because they thought Hillary Clinton was interested only in herself, not them. Mr Trump in 2016 convinced them he understood the lives of ordinary people.
But in 2020, Mr Trump is seen as the one who is utterly self-absorbed. Joe Biden says that this election is not about the Biden family or Trump’s family. “It’s about your family,” he repeatedly tells voters.
If Mr Biden’s message cuts through, it will be because for many Americans 2020 is just one miserable year in three unhappy decades. The jobs “ain’t coming back.” The 2020 winner will deliver hope for an America desperate for change.
Gavin Esler is a broadcaster and UK columnist for The National
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Key findings of Jenkins report
- Founder of the Muslim Brotherhood, Hassan al Banna, "accepted the political utility of violence"
- Views of key Muslim Brotherhood ideologue, Sayyid Qutb, have “consistently been understood” as permitting “the use of extreme violence in the pursuit of the perfect Islamic society” and “never been institutionally disowned” by the movement.
- Muslim Brotherhood at all levels has repeatedly defended Hamas attacks against Israel, including the use of suicide bombers and the killing of civilians.
- Laying out the report in the House of Commons, David Cameron told MPs: "The main findings of the review support the conclusion that membership of, association with, or influence by the Muslim Brotherhood should be considered as a possible indicator of extremism."
Company profile
Date started: Founded in May 2017 and operational since April 2018
Founders: co-founder and chief executive, Doaa Aref; Dr Rasha Rady, co-founder and chief operating officer.
Based: Cairo, Egypt
Sector: Health-tech
Size: 22 employees
Funding: Seed funding
Investors: Flat6labs, 500 Falcons, three angel investors
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Review: Tomb Raider
Dir: Roar Uthaug
Starring: Alicia Vikander, Dominic West, Daniel Wu, Walter Goggins
two stars
Babumoshai Bandookbaaz
Director: Kushan Nandy
Starring: Nawazuddin Siddiqui, Bidita Bag, Jatin Goswami
Three stars
How to apply for a drone permit
- Individuals must register on UAE Drone app or website using their UAE Pass
- Add all their personal details, including name, nationality, passport number, Emiratis ID, email and phone number
- Upload the training certificate from a centre accredited by the GCAA
- Submit their request
What are the regulations?
- Fly it within visual line of sight
- Never over populated areas
- Ensure maximum flying height of 400 feet (122 metres) above ground level is not crossed
- Users must avoid flying over restricted areas listed on the UAE Drone app
- Only fly the drone during the day, and never at night
- Should have a live feed of the drone flight
- Drones must weigh 5 kg or less
What vitamins do we know are beneficial for living in the UAE
Vitamin D: Highly relevant in the UAE due to limited sun exposure; supports bone health, immunity and mood.
Vitamin B12: Important for nerve health and energy production, especially for vegetarians, vegans and individuals with absorption issues.
Iron: Useful only when deficiency or anaemia is confirmed; helps reduce fatigue and support immunity.
Omega-3 (EPA/DHA): Supports heart health and reduces inflammation, especially for those who consume little fish.
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MATCH INFO
Newcastle 2-2 Manchester City
Burnley 0-2 Crystal Palace
Chelsea 0-1 West Ham
Liverpool 2-1 Brighton
Tottenham 3-2 Bournemouth
Southampton v Watford (late)
Why it pays to compare
A comparison of sending Dh20,000 from the UAE using two different routes at the same time - the first direct from a UAE bank to a bank in Germany, and the second from the same UAE bank via an online platform to Germany - found key differences in cost and speed. The transfers were both initiated on January 30.
Route 1: bank transfer
The UAE bank charged Dh152.25 for the Dh20,000 transfer. On top of that, their exchange rate margin added a difference of around Dh415, compared with the mid-market rate.
Total cost: Dh567.25 - around 2.9 per cent of the total amount
Total received: €4,670.30
Route 2: online platform
The UAE bank’s charge for sending Dh20,000 to a UK dirham-denominated account was Dh2.10. The exchange rate margin cost was Dh60, plus a Dh12 fee.
Total cost: Dh74.10, around 0.4 per cent of the transaction
Total received: €4,756
The UAE bank transfer was far quicker – around two to three working days, while the online platform took around four to five days, but was considerably cheaper. In the online platform transfer, the funds were also exposed to currency risk during the period it took for them to arrive.
Milestones on the road to union
1970
October 26: Bahrain withdraws from a proposal to create a federation of nine with the seven Trucial States and Qatar.
December: Ahmed Al Suwaidi visits New York to discuss potential UN membership.
1971
March 1: Alex Douglas Hume, Conservative foreign secretary confirms that Britain will leave the Gulf and “strongly supports” the creation of a Union of Arab Emirates.
July 12: Historic meeting at which Sheikh Zayed and Sheikh Rashid make a binding agreement to create what will become the UAE.
July 18: It is announced that the UAE will be formed from six emirates, with a proposed constitution signed. RAK is not yet part of the agreement.
August 6: The fifth anniversary of Sheikh Zayed becoming Ruler of Abu Dhabi, with official celebrations deferred until later in the year.
August 15: Bahrain becomes independent.
September 3: Qatar becomes independent.
November 23-25: Meeting with Sheikh Zayed and Sheikh Rashid and senior British officials to fix December 2 as date of creation of the UAE.
November 29: At 5.30pm Iranian forces seize the Greater and Lesser Tunbs by force.
November 30: Despite a power sharing agreement, Tehran takes full control of Abu Musa.
November 31: UK officials visit all six participating Emirates to formally end the Trucial States treaties
December 2: 11am, Dubai. New Supreme Council formally elects Sheikh Zayed as President. Treaty of Friendship signed with the UK. 11.30am. Flag raising ceremony at Union House and Al Manhal Palace in Abu Dhabi witnessed by Sheikh Khalifa, then Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi.
December 6: Arab League formally admits the UAE. The first British Ambassador presents his credentials to Sheikh Zayed.
December 9: UAE joins the United Nations.
Global Fungi Facts
• Scientists estimate there could be as many as 3 million fungal species globally
• Only about 160,000 have been officially described leaving around 90% undiscovered
• Fungi account for roughly 90% of Earth's unknown biodiversity
• Forest fungi help tackle climate change, absorbing up to 36% of global fossil fuel emissions annually and storing around 5 billion tonnes of carbon in the planet's topsoil
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LA LIGA FIXTURES
Thursday (All UAE kick-off times)
Sevilla v Real Betis (midnight)
Friday
Granada v Real Betis (9.30pm)
Valencia v Levante (midnight)
Saturday
Espanyol v Alaves (4pm)
Celta Vigo v Villarreal (7pm)
Leganes v Real Valladolid (9.30pm)
Mallorca v Barcelona (midnight)
Sunday
Atletic Bilbao v Atletico Madrid (4pm)
Real Madrid v Eibar (9.30pm)
Real Sociedad v Osasuna (midnight)
The specs
Price: From Dh180,000 (estimate)
Engine: 2.0-litre turbocharged and supercharged in-line four-cylinder
Transmission: Eight-speed automatic
Power: 320hp @ 5,700rpm
Torque: 400Nm @ 2,200rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 9.7L / 100km
The biog
Name: Shamsa Hassan Safar
Nationality: Emirati
Education: Degree in emergency medical services at Higher Colleges of Technology
Favourite book: Between two hearts- Arabic novels
Favourite music: Mohammed Abdu and modern Arabic songs
Favourite way to spend time off: Family visits and spending time with friends
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Ten tax points to be aware of in 2026
1. Domestic VAT refund amendments: request your refund within five years
If a business does not apply for the refund on time, they lose their credit.
2. E-invoicing in the UAE
Businesses should continue preparing for the implementation of e-invoicing in the UAE, with 2026 a preparation and transition period ahead of phased mandatory adoption.
3. More tax audits
Tax authorities are increasingly using data already available across multiple filings to identify audit risks.
4. More beneficial VAT and excise tax penalty regime
Tax disputes are expected to become more frequent and more structured, with clearer administrative objection and appeal processes. The UAE has adopted a new penalty regime for VAT and excise disputes, which now mirrors the penalty regime for corporate tax.
5. Greater emphasis on statutory audit
There is a greater need for the accuracy of financial statements. The International Financial Reporting Standards standards need to be strictly adhered to and, as a result, the quality of the audits will need to increase.
6. Further transfer pricing enforcement
Transfer pricing enforcement, which refers to the practice of establishing prices for internal transactions between related entities, is expected to broaden in scope. The UAE will shortly open the possibility to negotiate advance pricing agreements, or essentially rulings for transfer pricing purposes.
7. Limited time periods for audits
Recent amendments also introduce a default five-year limitation period for tax audits and assessments, subject to specific statutory exceptions. While the standard audit and assessment period is five years, this may be extended to up to 15 years in cases involving fraud or tax evasion.
8. Pillar 2 implementation
Many multinational groups will begin to feel the practical effect of the Domestic Minimum Top-Up Tax (DMTT), the UAE's implementation of the OECD’s global minimum tax under Pillar 2. While the rules apply for financial years starting on or after January 1, 2025, it is 2026 that marks the transition to an operational phase.
9. Reduced compliance obligations for imported goods and services
Businesses that apply the reverse-charge mechanism for VAT purposes in the UAE may benefit from reduced compliance obligations.
10. Substance and CbC reporting focus
Tax authorities are expected to continue strengthening the enforcement of economic substance and Country-by-Country (CbC) reporting frameworks. In the UAE, these regimes are increasingly being used as risk-assessment tools, providing tax authorities with a comprehensive view of multinational groups’ global footprints and enabling them to assess whether profits are aligned with real economic activity.
Contributed by Thomas Vanhee and Hend Rashwan, Aurifer
SPECS
Mini John Cooper Works Clubman and Mini John Cooper Works Countryman
Engine: two-litre 4-cylinder turbo
Transmission: nine-speed automatic
Power: 306hp
Torque: 450Nm
Price: JCW Clubman, Dh220,500; JCW Countryman, Dh225,500
How to protect yourself when air quality drops
Install an air filter in your home.
Close your windows and turn on the AC.
Shower or bath after being outside.
Wear a face mask.
Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.
If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.
((Disclaimer))
The Liechtensteinische Landesbank AG (“Bank”) assumes no liability or guarantee for the accuracy, balance, or completeness of the information in this publication. The content may change at any time due to given circumstances, and the Liechtensteinische Landesbank AG is under no obligation to update information once it has been published. This publication is intended for information purposes only and does not constitute an offer, a recommendation or an invitation by, or on behalf of, Liechtensteinische Landesbank (DIFC Branch), Liechtensteinische Landesbank AG, or any of its group affiliates to make any investments or obtain services. This publication has not been reviewed, disapproved or approved by the United Arab Emirates (“UAE”) Central Bank, Dubai Financial Services Authority (“DFSA”) or any other relevant licensing authorities in the UAE. It may not be relied upon by or distributed to retail clients. Liechtensteinische Landesbank (DIFC Branch) is regulated by the DFSA and this advertorial is intended for Professional Clients (as defined by the DFSA) who have sufficient financial experience and understanding of financial markets, products or transactions and any associated risks.
High profile Al Shabab attacks
- 2010: A restaurant attack in Kampala Uganda kills 74 people watching a Fifa World Cup final football match.
- 2013: The Westgate shopping mall attack, 62 civilians, five Kenyan soldiers and four gunmen are killed.
- 2014: A series of bombings and shootings across Kenya sees scores of civilians killed.
- 2015: Four gunmen attack Garissa University College in northeastern Kenya and take over 700 students hostage, killing those who identified as Christian; 148 die and 79 more are injured.
- 2016: An attack on a Kenyan military base in El Adde Somalia kills 180 soldiers.
- 2017: A suicide truck bombing outside the Safari Hotel in Mogadishu kills 587 people and destroys several city blocks, making it the deadliest attack by the group and the worst in Somalia’s history.
Expert input
If you had all the money in the world, what’s the one sneaker you would buy or create?
“There are a few shoes that have ‘grail’ status for me. But the one I have always wanted is the Nike x Patta x Parra Air Max 1 - Cherrywood. To get a pair in my size brand new is would cost me between Dh8,000 and Dh 10,000.” Jack Brett
“If I had all the money, I would approach Nike and ask them to do my own Air Force 1, that’s one of my dreams.” Yaseen Benchouche
“There’s nothing out there yet that I’d pay an insane amount for, but I’d love to create my own shoe with Tinker Hatfield and Jordan.” Joshua Cox
“I think I’d buy a defunct footwear brand; I’d like the challenge of reinterpreting a brand’s history and changing options.” Kris Balerite
“I’d stir up a creative collaboration with designers Martin Margiela of the mixed patchwork sneakers, and Yohji Yamamoto.” Hussain Moloobhoy
“If I had all the money in the world, I’d live somewhere where I’d never have to wear shoes again.” Raj Malhotra
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