Ethiopia's Prime minister Abiy Ahmed and Eritrean President Isaias Afwerk sign a declaration in Eritrea on July 9. Reuters
Ethiopia's Prime minister Abiy Ahmed and Eritrean President Isaias Afwerk sign a declaration in Eritrea on July 9. Reuters

Will the 'bridge of love' prosper between Eritrea and Ethiopia?



In a world full of intractable conflicts, a sudden outbreak of peace in the perennially unstable Horn of Africa has taken some observers by surprise. After 18 years of cold war which followed a bloody border conflict in 1998-2000, Ethiopia and Eritrea declared peace on July 8, with Ethiopia finally promising to implement an agreement on the demarcation of their border.

The speed of the change has been helped by the appointment of Ethiopian's new prime minister, Abiy Ahmed, who at 41 is the youngest in Africa. After a whirlwind of domestic reforms to the one-party state, he has embraced the Eritrean leader, Isaias Afwerki, a former guerrilla chieftain who has been at the head of a dictatorial regime since independence in 1993.

Flights and phone communications are to resume, and Ethiopia, landlocked since Eritrea broke away, will be able to use the Red Sea port of Assab again. In place of a contested border, Mr Abiy said, “We have built a bridge of love.”

Several questions arise. Why now? And will the eruption of love actually last?

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Ethiopia, a regional power with a population of 100 million, has been growing at a rate of up to 10 per cent a year and has close relations with the United States, having astutely played its cards during the years of the US-led war on terror.

This has allowed Addis Ababa to pursue a policy of isolating Eritrea, with the hope of strangling the regime there. With a population of five million, its intellectual capital depleted by the emigration of the young people who want to avoid the brutal system of open-ended military service, it has been largely friendless in recent years, a sort of African North Korea, without the benefit of that country’s ally in the form of China.

What has now changed is growing political and economic instability in Ethiopia, combined with the rising strategic importance of Eritrea’s Red Sea coastline not only to the Gulf States but also to China, and in consequence to Washington. These factors have made it impossible for Ethiopia to pursue its containment of its smaller neighbour.

Ethiopia, home to some 80 different ethnicities, is a federation held together by the Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front, a coalition of four ethnically-based parties which has until recently provided cover for the dominance of the Tigrayans, who account for a mere six per cent of the population.

Popular protests have led to the imposition of a state of emergency, and a stalemate among the leadership led to the appointment of Mr Abiy, a compromise candidate. He has set about reducing the power of the Tigrayans, risking a backlash from the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), the former guerrilla group which spearheaded the struggle to topple the Marxist regime known as the Dergue in 1987. He has been touring the country, suggesting a new, more open form of government and prompting speculation about free elections.

At the same time, it is clear that Ethiopia’s eye-popping growth rate is the result of an infrastructure building binge that the country cannot afford. The Kenyan economist David Ndii argues that the economy is sinking into a foreign exchange crisis.

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With Ethiopia’s army stretched in peace-keeping operations, it can no longer afford to keep troops on the border with Eritrea. At the same time, reopening trade with Eritrea could provide a fillip to the Ethiopian economy.

Meanwhile geopolitical shifts have eased Eritrea’s isolation. The war in Yemen has reinforced the Arab view that Gulf security cannot be separated from security in the Horn of Africa.

Since China established a naval base in Djibouti – a regional hub for the America military – Washington has looked more favourably on Eritrea. The UAE has been granted a 25-year lease at the port of Berbera, in Somaliland, further south.

These changes will have repercussions for years to come. It is possible that delineating the border may lead to new conflict or that Mr Abiy may not be able to force the Ethiopian military to withdraw from the town of Badme, which was awarded to Eritrea under the peace settlement.

Questions hang over the future of both leaders. Put crudely the key question is: who will be the Gorbachev? Though it is far too early to compare these two countries to the Soviet Union, which Mikhail Gorbachev tried to reform but ended up destroying, his fate is never far from the thoughts of autocrats.

Ethiopian politics are hard to penetrate at the best of times but it is clear that Mr Abiy is taking a risk in challenging the power of the TPLF. Its leaders may fear that his policy of openness and economic liberalisation will split the country which, for all its ancient history, is riven with ethnic tensions. In what may be a sign of things to come, a grenade was thrown into rally Mr Abiy was addressing in Addis Ababa last month, killing one person and injuring dozens more.

But the future of no clearer for Mr Isaias. If peace is entrenched, what will happen to the recruits whose military service can turn into endless forced labour? They will want jobs and education and the prospect of a better life, which has not figured in his list of priorities. This will be fateful challenge for him after 25 years of uncontested power.

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COMPANY PROFILE
Name: ARDH Collective
Based: Dubai
Founders: Alhaan Ahmed, Alyina Ahmed and Maximo Tettamanzi
Sector: Sustainability
Total funding: Self funded
Number of employees: 4
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Yadoo’s House Restaurant & Cafe

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Dubai World Cup factbox

Most wins by a trainer: Godolphin’s Saeed bin Suroor(9)

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Most wins by a horse: Godolphin’s Thunder Snow(2)

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The specs

Engine: Direct injection 4-cylinder 1.4-litre
Power: 150hp
Torque: 250Nm
Price: From Dh139,000
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Anghami
Started: December 2011
Co-founders: Elie Habib, Eddy Maroun
Based: Beirut and Dubai
Sector: Entertainment
Size: 85 employees
Stage: Series C
Investors: MEVP, du, Mobily, MBC, Samena Capital

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How to register as a donor

1) Organ donors can register on the Hayat app, run by the Ministry of Health and Prevention

2) There are about 11,000 patients in the country in need of organ transplants

3) People must be over 21. Emiratis and residents can register. 

4) The campaign uses the hashtag  #donate_hope

Sustainable Development Goals

1. End poverty in all its forms everywhere

2. End hunger, achieve food security and improved nutrition and promote sustainable agriculture

3. Ensure healthy lives and promote well-being for all at all ages

4. Ensure inclusive and equitable quality education and promote lifelong learning opportunities for all

5. Achieve gender equality and empower all women and girls

6. Ensure availability and sustainable management of water and sanitation for all

7. Ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all

8. Promote sustained, inclusive and sustainable economic growth, full and productive employment and decent work for all

9. Build resilient infrastructure, promote inclusive and sustainable industrialisation and foster innovation

10. Reduce inequality  within and among countries

11. Make cities and human settlements inclusive, safe, resilient and sustainable

12. Ensure sustainable consumption and production patterns

13. Take urgent action to combat climate change and its effects

14. Conserve and sustainably use the oceans, seas and marine resources for sustainable development

15. Protect, restore and promote sustainable use of terrestrial ecosystems, sustainably manage forests, combat desertification, and halt and reverse land degradation and halt biodiversity loss

16. Promote peaceful and inclusive societies for sustainable development, provide access to justice for all and build effective, accountable and inclusive institutions at all levels

17. Strengthen the means of implementation and revitalise the global partnership for sustainable development

Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

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The specs

Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cyl turbo

Power: 247hp at 6,500rpm

Torque: 370Nm from 1,500-3,500rpm

Transmission: 10-speed auto

Fuel consumption: 7.8L/100km

Price: from Dh94,900

On sale: now

The specs: 2018 Opel Mokka X

Price, as tested: Dh84,000

Engine: 1.4L, four-cylinder turbo

Transmission: Six-speed auto

Power: 142hp at 4,900rpm

Torque: 200Nm at 1,850rpm

Fuel economy, combined: 6.5L / 100km

Paatal Lok season two

Directors: Avinash Arun, Prosit Roy 

Stars: Jaideep Ahlawat, Ishwak Singh, Lc Sekhose, Merenla Imsong

Rating: 4.5/5

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Dubai Bling season three

Cast: Loujain Adada, Zeina Khoury, Farhana Bodi, Ebraheem Al Samadi, Mona Kattan, and couples Safa & Fahad Siddiqui and DJ Bliss & Danya Mohammed 

Rating: 1/5

How to protect yourself when air quality drops

Install an air filter in your home.

Close your windows and turn on the AC.

Shower or bath after being outside.

Wear a face mask.

Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.

If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.

Emergency

Director: Kangana Ranaut

Stars: Kangana Ranaut, Anupam Kher, Shreyas Talpade, Milind Soman, Mahima Chaudhry 

Rating: 2/5

SPECS
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The%20Kitchen
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The specs

AT4 Ultimate, as tested

Engine: 6.2-litre V8

Power: 420hp

Torque: 623Nm

Transmission: 10-speed automatic

Price: From Dh330,800 (Elevation: Dh236,400; AT4: Dh286,800; Denali: Dh345,800)

On sale: Now

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The biog

Hometown: Cairo

Age: 37

Favourite TV series: The Handmaid’s Tale, Black Mirror

Favourite anime series: Death Note, One Piece and Hellsing

Favourite book: Designing Brand Identity, Fifth Edition

The studios taking part (so far)
  1. Punch
  2. Vogue Fitness 
  3. Sweat
  4. Bodytree Studio
  5. The Hot House
  6. The Room
  7. Inspire Sports (Ladies Only)
  8. Cryo
If you go
Where to stay: Courtyard by Marriott Titusville Kennedy Space Centre has unparalleled views of the Indian River. Alligators can be spotted from hotel room balconies, as can several rocket launch sites. The hotel also boasts cool space-themed decor.

When to go: Florida is best experienced during the winter months, from November to May, before the humidity kicks in.

How to get there: Emirates currently flies from Dubai to Orlando five times a week.
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COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Almnssa
Started: August 2020
Founder: Areej Selmi
Based: Gaza
Sectors: Internet, e-commerce
Investments: Grants/private funding