How to make the ceasefire in Lebanon stick

If peace is more than the mere absence of war, then a true ceasefire must be more than just a pause in the fighting. The truce agreed to a week ago between Israel and Hezbollah contained several vital elements that held out the promise of longer-term stability. Among these were Lebanese troops replacing Hezbollah fighters as the main armed force in the country’s south, and steps to elect a president within 60 days. Ceasefire breaches by Israel and Hezbollah are now jeopardising these important aims. France has reportedly recorded 52 Israeli violations of the truce since the ceasefire began. Lebanon's Health Ministry has said at least nine people were killed in Israeli strikes on two southern villages on Monday evening. The same day, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu accused Hezbollah of breaking the ceasefire after it fired two projectiles towards Lebanon’s Shebaa Farms, near where the borders of Lebanon, Syria and Israel meet. Since the October 7 attacks last year, the Middle East has been convulsed by violence. More than 44,000 Palestinians have been killed by Israel’s military. Many Israeli hostages remain in captivity and thousands of Israeli civilians are unable to return to their homes in the north. Yemen remains a crucible of instability and the renewed fighting in Syria threatens to ignite more havoc. Amid this gloomy regional picture, Lebanon’s ceasefire was a rare glimmer of light. That optimism is now in doubt. The key to preserving a truce that was negotiated with the co-operation of the teams of Joe Biden and Donald Trump in the US is to remove the calculus for either side that there is anything to be gained by breaching the ceasefire. Working to ensure Lebanon has an agreed head of state and government, capable armed forces and the ability to protect and support its people is the surest way to do this. A Lebanon that has all these things would remove any excuse from Israel or Hezbollah to carry on with their ruinous war. The presence of a renewed Lebanese state would counter the instability caused by outside interference in its affairs, restore a measure of security for northern Israelis and frustrate the desire of militant Israeli settlers to occupy southern Lebanon, and could encourage regional de-escalation and contribute to ending the horrors in Gaza. For this to happen, parties must invest not only in the ceasefire but in supporting Lebanon’s institutions. There are already signs of international support for such an approach; yesterday, French President Emmanuel Macron arrived in Riyadh for talks with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. The reconstruction of Lebanon, where losses caused by Israeli bombardments have been estimated at $8.5 billion by the World Bank, are on the agenda as is bolstering support for the Lebanese army return to the south of the country. Separately, the importance of having a Lebanese head of state was highlighted on Sunday by Pope Francis who urged the country’s politicians to urgently elect a new president. Lebanon’s people cannot afford for this ceasefire to fail. There is much work to be done, including rebuilding parts of the country destroyed by Israeli bombing so that displaced residents can return home. For that work to have any chance of succeeding, breaches of the ceasefire – from whatever quarter – must come to an end.