Rebuilding Lebanon is vital for regional peace

While much of the world’s attention appears fixed on the unfolding developments in Syria , dangerous conflicts in the rest of the Levant rightly remain a cause for serious concern. As the humanitarian situation in Gaza plumbs new terrible depths with recent reports of several Palestinian infants freezing to death, the precarious situation in Lebanon presents the country’s friends and allies with an obligation to help but uncertainty about how to do so effectively. Lebanon’s most acute problem is the possibility of its fragile ceasefire being upended by Israeli violations or breaches by Hezbollah. In an exclusive interview with The National , Italy’s Minister of Defence Guido Crosetto said Italy and other countries have been reminding all parties to the conflict that such violations must stop. "But since I remember what was happening just weeks ago, I accept some violations in the hope they become zero,” Mr Crosetto added. “Even a difficult truce is better than the open war we had weeks ago.” Although this “difficult truce” is far from perfect, it at least offers the possibility that Lebanon can use the respite to take some crucial next steps, primarily clearing the mountain of debris left by Israeli bombardments and housing more than a million displaced people. The cost of such an endeavour would challenge bigger, richer, more stable countries than Lebanon. Last month, the World Bank estimated that damage and losses from the war have cost Lebanon $8.5 billion, with damage to its physical infrastructure alone amounting to $3.4 billion. If World Bank estimates that the conflict may have cut Lebanon’s real GDP growth by at least 6.6 per cent this year – compounding five years of sustained, sharp economic contraction – then multilateral grants and aid will be an unavoidable part of rebuilding the country. A donors’ conference in Paris two months ago raised pledges of hundreds of millions of dollars and was a promising start, but such aid will be more forthcoming if donors feel confident the threat of renewed war from Israel has been lifted and that Lebanon's political class are able to lead the country out of its complex crises, including Hezbollah not being a spoiler. he first condition will require sustained diplomatic pressure on Israel to pull its forces out of Lebanese territory. The second will require a strong Lebanese state enforcing a robust framework of transparency and accountability, not only in distributing aid but in funding much-needed reconstruction. To achieve this, a decisive political leadership must emerge in Lebanon, and the scheduled vote on January 9 for MPs to choose a new president must deliver a clear break with the flawed status quo that has let the country down in the past. Enabling this process of rebuilding is about more than meeting the immediate needs of the Lebanese people, although these are critical. In a broader sense it is about putting Lebanon back on the path to stability, a condition that is sadly lacking in a Levant that is going through some extremely turbulent times. Peace is more than merely the absence of war, and making Lebanon’s reconstruction a task that is defined by efficiency, coherence and capable leadership will help embed stability at home and hopefully show that a better future is possible for the region.