The November 24 deadline for Iran and the P5+1 countries to reach a deal over Tehran's nuclear programme is fast approaching, with both sides reportedly keen to sign. But there are no guarantees about the outcome of the talks being held yesterday and today in Muscat between US secretary of state John Kerry, EU envoy Catherine Ashton and Iran's foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif.
Recent events certainly suggest that something is afoot. Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, long seen as a stumbling block in negotiations, is now said to want an agreement, possibly because the recent drop in oil prices is hurting his country’s already beleaguered economy. He may have also been swayed in recent days by a letter from US president Barack Obama pointing out the two countries’ mutual interests, including the defeat of ISIL, which controls significant amounts of territory in Iraq and Syria.
Exactly what kind of deal could be reached has been widely questioned. As a result of last week’s midterm elections, Mr Obama is facing a hostile Congress that cannot be relied upon to approve the relaxation of US sanctions against Iran. However, the president has the executive authority to make other concessions that would be welcomed in Tehran, including the lifting of “secondary sanctions” imposed against foreign companies that do business in Iran. In return, Iran might agree to ship its stockpile of uranium to Russia to be converted into fuel rods tailored for use in its power stations, thus allaying fears that it seeks to use its nuclear technology to develop weapons.
Mr Kerry has said that he wants to “get this done”, but has played down any potential link between a nuclear deal and cooperation in the war against ISIL. The Iranians, typically, have been tight-lipped. It remains entirely possible that the talks will fail, or that another solution suitable to all sides is being negotiated behind closed doors. There can be no doubt that a deal is in everybody’s interests – especially for those in this region who fear a nuclear-capable Iran. The opportunity has presented itself and the clock is ticking.