The aftermath of that election will be navel-gazing

When I wrote my column a fortnight ago about the British general election, I – like the pollsters – thought that last Thursday’s election would end in another inconclusive result. Instead prime minister David Cameron and his Conservatives just managed to win an overall majority, virtually wiping out his former partners in coalition, the Liberal Democrats. The thrust of my column, though, was to ask why there had been so little discussion of foreign policy and I’ll return to that.

I’m sure that Britain’s new government will continue to make encouraging noises about its commitment, for example, to the fight against ISIL or to finding a solution to the wave of illegal migration across the Mediterranean from Libya to Italy, and to other foreign policy issues that will emerge over the next five years. It’ll remain committed to continuing to build on its good relationship with the UAE.

To be realistic, though – and this is something that other governments, including our own here, must take on board – there are going to be two key issues on which Britain, as a whole, is going to need to focus.

One is whether the United Kingdom will remain a member of the European Union. A referendum has been promised, by the end of 2017. Before the vote is held there would have to be negotiations with the EU and its member states on changes to its current rules. Whether the EU will make any significant concessions is far from clear. Only then will Mr Cameron decide the government’s view. Inside the UK, it will be an enormously divisive debate. At last year’s British elections for the European parliament, the UK Independence Party won the largest number of votes in England, whose population is far larger than that of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. If that happens again, and many Conservatives also favour withdrawal, a British exit (or “Brexit” as the commentators call it) might happen, with unpredictable consequences.

Then there is the issue of whether the United Kingdom can actually remain united. Last week, the Scottish National Party won 56 out of 59 seats in Scotland. Last year, it won 45 per cent of the vote in a referendum on Scottish independence. A year from now, there is a new election for Scotland’s parliament. If it wins an overall majority again, another referendum on independence may follow. The SNP supports EU membership but EU officials have already said that an independent Scotland would need to apply for membership; it wouldn’t come automatically. The possibility of border controls between England and Scotland may seem inconceivable now, but they could very well exist in five years time.

If either a Brexit or the break-up of the United Kingdom happens, or both, Britain’s role in the global community is going to change significantly. So Britain’s friends and allies had better get used to the idea of these issues being top of the UK’s political agenda, regardless of crises abroad.

Before the debates over EU membership or Scottish independence absorb the attention of Britain’s government and politicians, however, there is one issue on which perhaps we here in the UAE can, at last, expect a bit more clarity. The official report on the Muslim Brotherhood in the UK was completed nine months ago. Nothing, not even a summary, has been published. A few weeks ago, we were told that it would be published alongside a new strategy on how to tackle extremism.

With Mr Cameron’s Conservatives no longer needing to take account of the sensibilities of his former Liberal Democrat colleagues, that extremism strategy may be finalised quickly. It may not be tough enough to satisfy critics here of the Brotherhood’s UK-based activities, but it should at last result in some specific, targeted actions being taken. Let’s see.

Peter Hellyer is a consultant ­specialising in the UAE’s history and culture