How nice it is, the Kurds must think ruefully, to see the countries of the Middle East in agreement. As efforts are stepped up to halt next week's referendum on Kurdish independence, Turkey, Iran, the government of Iraq, as well as the United States and the United Kingdom, are all on the same side, urging Erbil to back away from the vote. Finally, something the region can agree on.
In contrast to the Kurdish populations in Turkey, Syria and Iran, Iraq's Kurds enjoy the closest thing to self-rule in the region. Ironically, this push by the president of the Kurdistan region for an independence vote may actually undermine the gains made so far.
Independence votes are always a mix of ideology and politics. The majority of Kurds no doubt wish for independence. But independence someday is not the same as independence today, and it is this crucial distinction that has meant that Massoud Barzani, the Kurdish region's president, has faced unexpected opposition, both from outside the community and from within. He may just be pushing too far, too fast, to the detriment of the wider Kurdish movement.
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More on Kurdish autonomy
From Kirkuk to Catalonia, referendum votes leave much to be desired for those after autonomy
Israeli prime minister backs Kurdish independence in Iraq
Cartoon: Shadi Ghanim's take on the Kurdish referendum
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Mr Barzani's reasons for unleashing the genie of independence at this moment are entirely strategic. Facing serious opposition inside Kurdistan, he is, doubtless, hoping to forge a better deal with Baghdad by using the sledgehammer of a referendum. But that is a significant gamble.
For one, the coalescing of opposition to the referendum has highlighted how misaligned Erbil is from other governments in the region. That could shift the consensus in regional capitals, particularly in Ankara, Baghdad and Tehran, all of whom fear an independent Kurdistan would start to give their own Kurdish minorities ideas.
But it is also a tactical error. Because even if there were a referendum, given the fierce rivalry between Mr Barzani's Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), there is no guarantee it would pass. The rivalry with the PUK is so fierce that it has dampened the excitement of the referendum to the east and south of the Kurdish areas, where PUK support is strongest. Forced to choose between a vote for independence or their preferred party, a yes vote cannot be taken for granted.
That would be worse than no referendum. A botched referendum, where the vote failed or passed with a slim majority – especially if significant numbers of Turkmen, Arabs, Assyrians and Armenians did not vote yes – would actually strengthen Baghdad's position, which would leap to suggest that the Kurds had no real mandate to separate. The march towards independence would be greatly weakened.
Nor, in any case, will independence be a cure for what ails Kurdistan. At the moment, the semi-autonomous government in Erbil gets to blame any problems on Baghdad. After independence, Kurds, and the other groups like Iraqi Arabs who will then be minorities within Kurdistan, will demand more accountability.
That won't be easy, because the Kurdish movement in Iraq has long been split between the KDP and the PUK, which function more like fiefdoms. Barzani is president of the Kurdish region and the head of the KDP, his nephew is prime minister and deputy of the KDP and his son is the head of Kurdistan's intelligence service. While Kurds may tolerate this monopoly situation at the moment, given the Barzani clan's centrality to the Kurdish movement, that won't last long.
Moreover, despite the vast oil wealth of the region, the Kurdistan government is billions of dollars in debt. The peshmerga, the Kurdish militias who would form the backbone of any new army, are often not paid. Civil servants have seen their salaries slashed. Kurdistan's government, creaking, corrupt, run along factional lines and with a president who is 12 years into an eight-year term does not look ready for independence. (Indeed the region, one wag noted, seems more like Lebanon without the beaches.)
Worse, Kurdish leaders have made it appear as if independence would be an easy thing. It will not. Turkey and Iran would have vastly more leverage over a small, independent Kurdistan than they do over a semi-autonomous part of Iraq. The major oil pipeline from the region goes from Kirkuk into Turkey. But Kirkuk is a mixed city and it is an open question whether it would become part of Kurdistan – the government in Baghdad might defend its current status by force.
Erbil would, after independence, face an awful choice: either entirely dependent on Turkey to sell its main source of revenue. Or, worse, if Kirkuk stays within Iraq, with the only way to export its oil now inside a foreign country. Ironically, Kirkuk gives the Kurds more leverage if it is within Iraq.
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Read more from Faisal Al Yafai
The dream of Oslo has not died, it has just faded away
The Taj Mahal has been caught in a rising tide of narrow nationalism
The dream of a secular Afghanistan still holds power – even over the White House
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Iran, too, would pose a thorny problem after independence. Iran shares a long border with the region and would, given its influence in Baghdad – which would increase proportionally, without the Kurds in Iraq's parliament – also have sway over Iraq's long border with a newly independent Kurdistan. Earlier this summer, Iran briefly dammed a river into the Kurdish town of Qala Diza, an event that was seen as a warning shot to Erbil.
An independent Kurdistan would rapidly find itself with Iran as its most important neighbour, able to apply significant pressure over the majority of its newly minted borders. With Syria to the west and Turkey to the north seeing it as a security imperative to limit contact between their respective Kurdish populations, an independent Kurdistan could easily become a very claustrophobic place.
And yet independence, though a bad idea at the moment, is something the Kurds strongly desire and that must be taken seriously in Baghdad, Tehran and Ankara. Mr Barzani has said that if regional countries don't want a referendum, they must offer an alternative. That is right. Mr Barzani may be moving too swiftly to go, but it is Baghdad that must give the whole region a good reason to stay.
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Kanguva
Director: Siva
Stars: Suriya, Bobby Deol, Disha Patani, Yogi Babu, Redin Kingsley
From Zero
Artist: Linkin Park
Label: Warner Records
Number of tracks: 11
Rating: 4/5
Nayanthara: Beyond The Fairy Tale
Starring: Nayanthara, Vignesh Shivan, Radhika Sarathkumar, Nagarjuna Akkineni
Director: Amith Krishnan
Rating: 3.5/5
The specs
Engine: 2.7-litre 4-cylinder Turbomax
Power: 310hp
Torque: 583Nm
Transmission: 8-speed automatic
Price: From Dh192,500
On sale: Now
Call of Duty: Black Ops 6
Developer: Treyarch, Raven Software
Publisher: Activision
Console: PlayStation 4 & 5, Windows, Xbox One & Series X/S
Rating: 3.5/5
COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Revibe%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202022%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Hamza%20Iraqui%20and%20Abdessamad%20Ben%20Zakour%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20UAE%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EIndustry%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Refurbished%20electronics%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunds%20raised%20so%20far%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%2410m%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFlat6Labs%2C%20Resonance%20and%20various%20others%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Business Insights
- As per the document, there are six filing options, including choosing to report on a realisation basis and transitional rules for pre-tax period gains or losses.
- SMEs with revenue below Dh3 million per annum can opt for transitional relief until 2026, treating them as having no taxable income.
- Larger entities have specific provisions for asset and liability movements, business restructuring, and handling foreign permanent establishments.
Citadel: Honey Bunny first episode
Directors: Raj & DK
Stars: Varun Dhawan, Samantha Ruth Prabhu, Kashvi Majmundar, Kay Kay Menon
Rating: 4/5
Business Insights
- Canada and Mexico are significant energy suppliers to the US, providing the majority of oil and natural gas imports
- The introduction of tariffs could hinder the US's clean energy initiatives by raising input costs for materials like nickel
- US domestic suppliers might benefit from higher prices, but overall oil consumption is expected to decrease due to elevated costs
Mia Man’s tips for fermentation
- Start with a simple recipe such as yogurt or sauerkraut
- Keep your hands and kitchen tools clean. Sanitize knives, cutting boards, tongs and storage jars with boiling water before you start.
- Mold is bad: the colour pink is a sign of mold. If yogurt turns pink as it ferments, you need to discard it and start again. For kraut, if you remove the top leaves and see any sign of mold, you should discard the batch.
- Always use clean, closed, airtight lids and containers such as mason jars when fermenting yogurt and kraut. Keep the lid closed to prevent insects and contaminants from getting in.
MATCH INFO
What: 2006 World Cup quarter-final
When: July 1
Where: Gelsenkirchen Stadium, Gelsenkirchen, Germany
Result:
England 0 Portugal 0
(Portugal win 3-1 on penalties)
The Prison Letters of Nelson Mandela
Edited by Sahm Venter
Published by Liveright
MATCH INFO
Mainz 0
RB Leipzig 5 (Werner 11', 48', 75', Poulsen 23', Sabitzer 36')
Man of the Match: Timo Werner (RB Leipzig)
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Almnssa
Started: August 2020
Founder: Areej Selmi
Based: Gaza
Sectors: Internet, e-commerce
Investments: Grants/private funding
A%20QUIET%20PLACE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarring%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Lupita%20Nyong'o%2C%20Joseph%20Quinn%2C%20Djimon%20Hounsou%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EMichael%20Sarnoski%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
THE SPECS
Touareg Highline
Engine: 3.0-litre, V6
Transmission: 8-speed automatic
Power: 340hp
Torque: 450Nm
Price: Dh239,312
If you go
Where to stay: Courtyard by Marriott Titusville Kennedy Space Centre has unparalleled views of the Indian River. Alligators can be spotted from hotel room balconies, as can several rocket launch sites. The hotel also boasts cool space-themed decor.
When to go: Florida is best experienced during the winter months, from November to May, before the humidity kicks in.
How to get there: Emirates currently flies from Dubai to Orlando five times a week.
Company%20Profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Cargoz%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EDate%20started%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20January%202022%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Premlal%20Pullisserry%20and%20Lijo%20Antony%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dubai%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20staff%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2030%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Seed%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Traces%20of%20Enayat
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EAuthor%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Iman%20Mersal%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPublisher%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20And%20Other%20Stories%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPages%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20240%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
OPINIONS ON PALESTINE & ISRAEL
Where to buy art books in the UAE
There are a number of speciality art bookshops in the UAE.
In Dubai, The Lighthouse at Dubai Design District has a wonderfully curated selection of art and design books. Alserkal Avenue runs a pop-up shop at their A4 space, and host the art-book fair Fully Booked during Art Week in March. The Third Line, also in Alserkal Avenue, has a strong book-publishing arm and sells copies at its gallery. Kinokuniya, at Dubai Mall, has some good offerings within its broad selection, and you never know what you will find at the House of Prose in Jumeirah. Finally, all of Gulf Photo Plus’s photo books are available for sale at their show.
In Abu Dhabi, Louvre Abu Dhabi has a beautiful selection of catalogues and art books, and Magrudy’s – across the Emirates, but particularly at their NYU Abu Dhabi site – has a great selection in art, fiction and cultural theory.
In Sharjah, the Sharjah Art Museum sells catalogues and art books at its museum shop, and the Sharjah Art Foundation has a bookshop that offers reads on art, theory and cultural history.
Disclaimer
Director: Alfonso Cuaron
Stars: Cate Blanchett, Kevin Kline, Lesley Manville
Rating: 4/5
Things Heard & Seen
Directed by: Shari Springer Berman, Robert Pulcini
Starring: Amanda Seyfried, James Norton
2/5
SPECS
Engine: Two-litre four-cylinder turbo
Power: 235hp
Torque: 350Nm
Transmission: Nine-speed automatic
Price: From Dh167,500 ($45,000)
On sale: Now
The specs
Engine: Long-range single or dual motor with 200kW or 400kW battery
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Max touring range: 620km / 590km
Price: From Dh250,000 (estimated)
In-demand jobs and monthly salaries
- Technology expert in robotics and automation: Dh20,000 to Dh40,000
- Energy engineer: Dh25,000 to Dh30,000
- Production engineer: Dh30,000 to Dh40,000
- Data-driven supply chain management professional: Dh30,000 to Dh50,000
- HR leader: Dh40,000 to Dh60,000
- Engineering leader: Dh30,000 to Dh55,000
- Project manager: Dh55,000 to Dh65,000
- Senior reservoir engineer: Dh40,000 to Dh55,000
- Senior drilling engineer: Dh38,000 to Dh46,000
- Senior process engineer: Dh28,000 to Dh38,000
- Senior maintenance engineer: Dh22,000 to Dh34,000
- Field engineer: Dh6,500 to Dh7,500
- Field supervisor: Dh9,000 to Dh12,000
- Field operator: Dh5,000 to Dh7,000
Coming 2 America
Directed by: Craig Brewer
Starring: Eddie Murphy, Arsenio Hall, Jermaine Fowler, Leslie Jones
3/5 stars
Electoral College Victory
Trump has so far secured 295 Electoral College votes, according to the Associated Press, exceeding the 270 needed to win. Only Nevada and Arizona remain to be called, and both swing states are leaning Republican. Trump swept all five remaining swing states, North Carolina, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, sealing his path to victory and giving him a strong mandate.
Popular Vote Tally
The count is ongoing, but Trump currently leads with nearly 51 per cent of the popular vote to Harris’s 47.6 per cent. Trump has over 72.2 million votes, while Harris trails with approximately 67.4 million.
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Our legal advisor
Ahmad El Sayed is Senior Associate at Charles Russell Speechlys, a law firm headquartered in London with offices in the UK, Europe, the Middle East and Hong Kong.
Experience: Commercial litigator who has assisted clients with overseas judgments before UAE courts. His specialties are cases related to banking, real estate, shareholder disputes, company liquidations and criminal matters as well as employment related litigation.
Education: Sagesse University, Beirut, Lebanon, in 2005.
Singham Again
Director: Rohit Shetty
Stars: Ajay Devgn, Kareena Kapoor Khan, Ranveer Singh, Akshay Kumar, Tiger Shroff, Deepika Padukone
Rating: 3/5
MATCH INFO
Uefa Champioons League semi-final, first leg:
Liverpool 5
Salah (35', 45 1'), Mane (56'), Firmino (61', 68')
Roma 2
Dzeko (81'), Perotti (85' pen)
Second leg: May 2, Stadio Olimpico, Rome
