Theresa May’s surprise decision last week to call a general election in the United Kingdom represents an attempt to strengthen her personal authority before the immensely difficult negotiations on Britain’s departure from the European Union that will begin this year. Whether a general election will reconcile polarised opinions in Britain remains a moot point. In addition, Mrs May’s quest to build a “Global Britain” revitalising old partnerships and seeking new friends could also run into trouble as geopolitical realities and the perils of forging a new independent global trading role become more apparent.
Although her opponents fear that Mrs May’s previous rhetorical posturing heralds dramatic rupture with the EU, it is more likely she is preparing the ground for a compromise that will leave the UK closely aligned with its European neighbours.
Since Mrs May’s Brexit means Brexit mantra started to take on the more tangible form of a concrete policy this year, she has wavered from a confrontational attitude towards Europe and a more conciliatory tone. After threatening to walk away from the talks rather than settle for a bad deal, she struck a more emollient note when Article 50 was triggered last month. On that occasion, she stressed the value of European unity and pledged that Britain would continue to seek a close relationship with Brussels.
The prime minister’s new moderation signifies an increasing realisation of Brexit’s complexity and the immense difficulty of the negotiations to come. She has conceded that some kind of “transition period” would be needed when the UK leaves the bloc as scheduled in March 2019. This outcome, and the likelihood Brexit will dominate UK political life for the foreseeable future, largely explains why she has gone to the country now. In addition to shoring up her majority, she will also gain more time and political credit to reconcile a starkly divided electorate to the inevitable imperfect compromises that will be agreed.
Since the UK’s referendum on EU membership last year, the more strident Brexit advocates have lauded the vote as the dawn of a new golden era in which “Global Britain” would strike out in pursuit of lucrative commercial opportunities while bolstering its international political, diplomatic and cultural influence.
Mrs May’s newfound moderation reflects a more sombre appraisal of the real risks the UK runs of being marginalised as international trade relations increasingly revolve around agreements between large blocs of nations.
Although Mrs May’s visit to US president Donald Trump in January was presented as a revival of the Anglo-American “special relationship”, there are signs that Washington is positively re-evaluating the value of its relationship with the EU. Thanks to active German diplomacy, there is a growing likelihood that the stalled Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) agreement will be revived at the expense of a quick trade deal between the US and UK. While many in Washington are sympathetic to Mrs May’s predicament, Britain faces the prospect of being relegated to the “back of the queue” in a manner predicted by former US president Barack Obama before last year’s referendum.
The constraints on London’s ability to break free of Europe will be also be tested in those markets where Britain already has a strong presence such as the Arabian Gulf. Mrs May’s visit to the GCC summit last December indicates the immense importance she places on a trade relationship already valued at more than $37 billion (Dh135bn) per year in addition to efforts to strengthen long standing political and security links in the region.
The problem is that while there is certainly great potential for increased trade between the UK and the GCC countries, it will be some years before such ambitions are translated into reality. Mrs May’s hints at a transitional deal with the EU will probably lead to the UK remaining subject to the rulings of the European Court of Justice and payments into the EU budget. It is likely that the UK will also have to abide by the EU’s common external tariffs, with restrictions on its freedom to unilaterally pursue free trade deals with third countries.
The prospect of accepting such close ties with EU institutions after 2019 reflects the growing political and economic imperatives towards compromise. Politically, Mrs May will be tempted to seek a moderate Brexit to reach out to disaffected remain voters and take the wind out of the sails of the Scottish nationalists who have threatened a further independence referendum of their own.
Economically, while the pound’s recent drop in value has boosted British exports, it is notable that a large proportion of these new sales of goods and services are meeting revived demand in slowly recovering Eurozone economies.
Mrs May’s government is starting to wake up to the reality that the UK cannot simply walk away from the EU and magically transform itself into a buccaneering global trade champion. Winning a new mandate will thus give Mrs May scope to manage expectations downwards after the spasm of nationalist fervour unleashed by the Brexit vote.
She will also gain time to convince domestic opinion that maintaining access to the EU’s single market and its 440 million inhabitants will remain the key to the UK’s economic prosperity.
Stephen Blackwell is an international politics analyst