In the City, they’re already talking of it as a “nine-month year”. There’s so much uncertainty coming in the last quarter of 2024 that they’re getting their business done early, battening down the hatches from September onwards.
Both the biggest financial markets will be in the grip of political upheaval. In the UK, if Rishi Sunak has not called an early general election we will be heading towards one, most likely in November.
It’s possible he will go soon, in May, to seek the national vote first, before the local elections and a probable bloodbath for the Tories. June could well see Sunak immersed in negativity, fighting to explain the locals catastrophe and save his leadership. July is the summer and the onset of annual holidays. Then it’s autumn, and almost certainly a date after the completion of the party conference season.
Even if Sunak opted for May, it would still be towards the end of the year when the ramifications were becoming apparent, that, if the polls are correct, a new, Labour government would be bedding in – with all the turmoil, after 14 years of Tory rule, that will bring.
Meanwhile, in the US it looks as though President Joe Biden and Donald Trump will go head to head again, a rematch of their contest that ended in near civil insurrection. There, the stakes could not be higher – increasing the probability of a national schism in the event of another anticipated close battle.
Add to the mix ballots occurring elsewhere in the world, a continuing war in Ukraine (there seems little prospect of that ending in the near future), and trauma in Gaza and the anniversary of the Hamas attack on Israel, and the stage is set fair for a turbulent post-summer.
Rather than face volatility which makes decision-making nigh on impossible, companies and their banking advisers have chosen to move now.
They’re bringing forward their fund-raising, not wishing to wait until later in the year when they would otherwise have gone. The result is a stampede of bond issues, worth $606 billion, a two-fifths increase on the same period last year, according to LSEG data. It also marks the highest tally since 1990.
The lowest spreads in a long time, marking the difference between US corporate debt yields and the yields on government bonds, have also influenced their thinking.
The Viv index, regarded as an indicator of fear as it collates expectations of swings in the S&P 500, is also suggesting an autumn roller-coaster.
Companies are issuing debt against a backdrop of greater economic health. It may seem contradictory to say they are going now to avoid uncertainty later, so the political landscape is queasy, yet the economic one is the most solid it’s been for a while.
Countries are, finally, showing signs of getting to grips with inflation, the cost of living is no longer the issue it was, those who struggled to extricate themselves from the coronavirus are on the up.
Car manufacturers are borrowing, hinting that they see an upswing in consumer demand. Construction firms, likewise, are preparing for an upturn. A green flag, surely, is that banks, usually the most cautious of players, have also clamoured to issue debt.
They want their ducks in a row, come what may.
For many it’s a case of raking in the money today, and hanging on to it, so it’s there for use in time of trouble but also available should there be a lift.
The surge in activity is not just confined to bonds. IPOs are back on the immediate agenda, with two, Mr Trump’s own social media site and online social forum Reddìt, paving the way.
It’s not so much devil may care, but after weighing up all the options, it’s companies taking the view they have nothing to lose.
Borrowing using convertible bonds – that can be switched for shares if the issuer’s share price rises to a pre-agreed level – is also booming. Issues of convertibles have soared by more than half already this year to $17 billion.
Over the years, things usually settle down, elections will occur and governments replaced. What’s troubling this year is the Trump factor. There has been dark, opaque talk of “revenge” from his camp, there’s the persistent feeling that he has unfinished business, that if you thought his first term was a constant whirlwind you haven’t seen anything – his second “legacy” term could be more controversial. Truly wild in other words.
That’s less likely to be the case in the UK. Labour is going out of its way to suggest it has no money, that its room for manoeuvre will be tight.
While the US braces itself in the event of a Trump victory for disruption (or even if Biden wins and Trump refuses to accept the result), in the UK our ride may not be so bumpy.
“Sell in May and go away” is the City traders’ adage. It’s based on the principle that stocks rise more in the six months from November to April than from May to October. It used to be that traders liquidated their equity portfolios on May 1, switching into cash, then buying back those stocks after Halloween.
This year of all years, no one would blame them if they were tempted to stay away that bit longer.
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Rain Management
Year started: 2017
Based: Bahrain
Employees: 100-120
Amount raised: $2.5m from BitMex Ventures and Blockwater. Another $6m raised from MEVP, Coinbase, Vision Ventures, CMT, Jimco and DIFC Fintech Fund
Dr Amal Khalid Alias revealed a recent case of a woman with daughters, who specifically wanted a boy.
A semen analysis of the father showed abnormal sperm so the couple required IVF.
Out of 21 eggs collected, six were unused leaving 15 suitable for IVF.
A specific procedure was used, called intracytoplasmic sperm injection where a single sperm cell is inserted into the egg.
On day three of the process, 14 embryos were biopsied for gender selection.
The next day, a pre-implantation genetic report revealed four normal male embryos, three female and seven abnormal samples.
Day five of the treatment saw two male embryos transferred to the patient.
The woman recorded a positive pregnancy test two weeks later.
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UAE squad to face Ireland
Ahmed Raza (captain), Chirag Suri (vice-captain), Rohan Mustafa, Mohammed Usman, Mohammed Boota, Zahoor Khan, Junaid Siddique, Waheed Ahmad, Zawar Farid, CP Rizwaan, Aryan Lakra, Karthik Meiyappan, Alishan Sharafu, Basil Hameed, Kashif Daud, Adithya Shetty, Vriitya Aravind
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RACE CARD
5pm: Wathba Stallions Cup – Handicap (PA) Dh70,000 (Turf) 2,200m
5.30pm: Khor Al Baghal – Conditions (PA) Dh80,000 (T) 1,600m
6pm: Khor Faridah – Handicap (PA) Dh80,000 (T) 1,600m
6.30pm: Abu Dhabi Fillies Classic – Prestige (PA) Dh110,000 (T) 1,400m
7pm: Abu Dhabi Colts Classic – Prestige (PA) Dh110,000 (T) 1,400m
7.30pm: Khor Laffam – Handicap (TB) Dh80,000 (T) 2,200m
Bob Honey Who Just Do Stuff
By Sean Penn
Simon & Schuster
MOUNTAINHEAD REVIEW
Starring: Ramy Youssef, Steve Carell, Jason Schwartzman
Director: Jesse Armstrong
Rating: 3.5/5
Company profile
Date started: 2015
Founder: John Tsioris and Ioanna Angelidaki
Based: Dubai
Sector: Online grocery delivery
Staff: 200
Funding: Undisclosed, but investors include the Jabbar Internet Group and Venture Friends
Oscars in the UAE
The 90th Academy Awards will be aired in the UAE from 3.30am on Monday, March 5 on OSN, with the ceremony starting at 5am
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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The President's Cake
Director: Hasan Hadi
Starring: Baneen Ahmad Nayyef, Waheed Thabet Khreibat, Sajad Mohamad Qasem
Rating: 4/5
MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League semi-final, first leg
Bayern Munich v Real Madrid
When: April 25, 10.45pm kick-off (UAE)
Where: Allianz Arena, Munich
Live: BeIN Sports HD
Second leg: May 1, Santiago Bernabeu, Madrid
Green ambitions
- Trees: 1,500 to be planted, replacing 300 felled ones, with veteran oaks protected
- Lake: Brown's centrepiece to be cleaned of silt that makes it as shallow as 2.5cm
- Biodiversity: Bat cave to be added and habitats designed for kingfishers and little grebes
- Flood risk: Longer grass, deeper lake, restored ponds and absorbent paths all meant to siphon off water
What is Diwali?
The Hindu festival is at once a celebration of the autumn harvest and the triumph of good over evil, as outlined in the Ramayana.
According to the Sanskrit epic, penned by the sage Valmiki, Diwali marks the time that the exiled king Rama – a mortal with superhuman powers – returned home to the city of Ayodhya with his wife Sita and brother Lakshman, after vanquishing the 10-headed demon Ravana and conquering his kingdom of Lanka. The people of Ayodhya are believed to have lit thousands of earthen lamps to illuminate the city and to guide the royal family home.
In its current iteration, Diwali is celebrated with a puja to welcome the goodness of prosperity Lakshmi (an incarnation of Sita) into the home, which is decorated with diyas (oil lamps) or fairy lights and rangoli designs with coloured powder. Fireworks light up the sky in some parts of the word, and sweetmeats are made (or bought) by most households. It is customary to get new clothes stitched, and visit friends and family to exchange gifts and greetings.
Who's who in Yemen conflict
Houthis: Iran-backed rebels who occupy Sanaa and run unrecognised government
Yemeni government: Exiled government in Aden led by eight-member Presidential Leadership Council
Southern Transitional Council: Faction in Yemeni government that seeks autonomy for the south
Habrish 'rebels': Tribal-backed forces feuding with STC over control of oil in government territory
The National in Davos
We are bringing you the inside story from the World Economic Forum's Annual Meeting in Davos, a gathering of hundreds of world leaders, top executives and billionaires.
Quick pearls of wisdom
Focus on gratitude: And do so deeply, he says. “Think of one to three things a day that you’re grateful for. It needs to be specific, too, don’t just say ‘air.’ Really think about it. If you’re grateful for, say, what your parents have done for you, that will motivate you to do more for the world.”
Know how to fight: Shetty married his wife, Radhi, three years ago (he met her in a meditation class before he went off and became a monk). He says they’ve had to learn to respect each other’s “fighting styles” – he’s a talk it-out-immediately person, while she needs space to think. “When you’re having an argument, remember, it’s not you against each other. It’s both of you against the problem. When you win, they lose. If you’re on a team you have to win together.”
How to wear a kandura
Dos
- Wear the right fabric for the right season and occasion
- Always ask for the dress code if you don’t know
- Wear a white kandura, white ghutra / shemagh (headwear) and black shoes for work
- Wear 100 per cent cotton under the kandura as most fabrics are polyester
Don’ts
- Wear hamdania for work, always wear a ghutra and agal
- Buy a kandura only based on how it feels; ask questions about the fabric and understand what you are buying
THE BIO
Favourite book: ‘Purpose Driven Life’ by Rick Warren
Favourite travel destination: Switzerland
Hobbies: Travelling and following motivational speeches and speakers
Favourite place in UAE: Dubai Museum
If you go
The flights
Emirates and Etihad fly direct to Nairobi, with fares starting from Dh1,695. The resort can be reached from Nairobi via a 35-minute flight from Wilson Airport or Jomo Kenyatta International Airport, or by road, which takes at least three hours.
The rooms
Rooms at Fairmont Mount Kenya range from Dh1,870 per night for a deluxe room to Dh11,000 per night for the William Holden Cottage.
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Manikarnika: The Queen of Jhansi
Director: Kangana Ranaut, Krish Jagarlamudi
Producer: Zee Studios, Kamal Jain
Cast: Kangana Ranaut, Ankita Lokhande, Danny Denzongpa, Atul Kulkarni
Rating: 2.5/5
Results
United States beat UAE by three wickets
United States beat Scotland by 35 runs
UAE v Scotland – no result
United States beat UAE by 98 runs
Scotland beat United States by four wickets
Fixtures
Sunday, 10am, ICC Academy, Dubai - UAE v Scotland
Admission is free
'The Last Days of Ptolemy Grey'
Rating: 3/5
Directors: Ramin Bahrani, Debbie Allen, Hanelle Culpepper, Guillermo Navarro
Writers: Walter Mosley
Stars: Samuel L Jackson, Dominique Fishback, Walton Goggins
New schools in Dubai
The specs
Engine: 1.5-litre turbo
Power: 181hp
Torque: 230Nm
Transmission: 6-speed automatic
Starting price: Dh79,000
On sale: Now
